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OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

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Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#401

Post by danny_codes »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #217
aurareturn wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b. The only next step is the public market.

>the private market can't possibly go any higher Can public markets go higher? Shiller P/E is closing in on the peak of the dot-com bubble: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe This is already close to being the frothiest market in US history. Consider two competing forecasts for AI: it's a "normal technology", or it will be superintelligent. If it's a "normal technology", where's the moat? Why won't this turn into a bo…

The exit strategy is your 401k. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are banking on rule changes to indexes that will force retail to buy at elevated premiums. This will likely generate enough artificial demand for insiders to exit before prices correct. At least that’s OpenAI’s plan.

Fortunately for them, the current SEC is highly in favor of short-term market manipulation.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#402

Post by danny_codes »

karmakurtisaani wrote: post #169
maplethorpe wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they list on the Nasdaq, recent changes mean they can now be added after 15 days, instead of 12 months. https://www.etfstream.com/articles/spacex-to-ipo-on-nasdaq-a...

Ouch, I wasn't aware it got shortened so much! Yep, this is truly terrible.

Terrible for you, but very good for those with deep bribe pockets for the SEC

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#403

Post by danny_codes »

ericmay wrote: post #33
skiing_crawling wrote: post #13

At this point IPOs are mainly for unloading bags onto retail. Every institution who wanted a piece of these labs got in years ago and captured all the value.

Well, sad to say this is simply untrue for a few reasons. 1. "Retail" does not have enough purchasing power to have all of these "bags" unloaded on to. 2. Institutions buy shares in public firms post-IPO all the time even when they're "unloading bags onto retail". Take Uber (random example) ~83% is owned by institutions. 3. General factual history of the stock market shows that you are incorrect. Successful companies…

Retail includes people holding passive index funds.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#405

Post by siren2026 »

dbbk wrote: post #183
techtuate wrote: post #95

I was wrong - not investing in FB and Amazon many years ago - thought those businesses will shrivel and die. I believe OpenAI is a bit of a coin flip as the AI space evolves. In fact I feel all AI will be marginal return generators at best. There are a lot of incumbents and a lot more coming as barriers to entry get increasingly lower. Unless a company can build a near monopoly it'll be hard to justify a 100X revenue…

If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google

Funny how 3 years ago everyone agreed Google would never adapt to AI (I still remember all the comments here). And suddenly they should be "literally the only ones"?

What changed? They came out with one leading models for 2 weeks and that's all you needed to switch 180?

Google is still printing money in ads. That's the only thing they got for them. This will eventually get disrupted and I don't see them leading to something else.

Besides that they have a cultural issue. Nobody joins Google to work hard. Their brand name is synonymous with retirement and rest-and-vest. They also don't pay top of the market as they used to.

Right now a lot of people seem to think as you given their stock are very forward looking. My advice is don't get into the current hype cycle and wait for things to calm down. This is the equivalent of "Google is dead" that we saw a couple years ago.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#406

Post by siren2026 »

epolanski wrote: post #202
chvid wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.

Prices for both companies are already very forward looking, and assume best case scenario of insane growth for at least a decade while assuming no risk or competition. But tech is also one of the fields that is more prone to disruption. Nvidia is consistently one product away from it's competitors to eat highly into their margins. Google may have a stronger moat. No company in Italy I'm aware of is using anything but…

exactly. Everyone wants to bet on Google without looking at their current price.

Their current Forward PE is absolutely insane given the size of the company.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#407

Post by siren2026 »

mgrunwald_ wrote: post #321
dbbk wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google

Exactly. I remember the beginnings of ChatGPT, OpenAI looked like the future and Google had Bard, which was not very good. It looked like Google was soon to become irrelevant. Fast forward to today and they have a lot of great products in this space powered by their own custom AI chips.

Google's exhuberence today is exactly the same thing as "Google is dead" from 3 years ago.

The truth is somewhere in between probably.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#408

Post by fragmede »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #211
chvid wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.

I still think NVIDIA is a bad bet--where is their moat in the long term? Doesn't the sort of work NVIDIA engineers do look vulnerable to AI-assisted automation? NVIDIA engineers code against a well-defined test suite/specification, right?

The thing to squint at is Microsoft Windows. Windows is just a small bit of software, like Cuda for Nvidia is. Shouldn't be that hard to copy. Look at Ubuntu. Look at how functional a replacement for Windows it is and how much that hasn't mattered one bit.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#409

Post by HacklesRaised »

dbbk wrote: post #183
techtuate wrote: post #95

I was wrong - not investing in FB and Amazon many years ago - thought those businesses will shrivel and die. I believe OpenAI is a bit of a coin flip as the AI space evolves. In fact I feel all AI will be marginal return generators at best. There are a lot of incumbents and a lot more coming as barriers to entry get increasingly lower. Unless a company can build a near monopoly it'll be hard to justify a 100X revenue…

If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google

^^^^ THIS

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#410

Post by [deleted] »

davey48016 wrote: post #24
Aboutplants wrote: post #18

The summer of Trillion dollar IPO’s is upon us. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX Will they eat each others potential capital appetite? Or is there just that much laying around for them all to gobble up the bag?

It depends at least partially on how much they're going to float. I think SpaceX is only planning about a 4% float, so even at $1.5T they only need around $60B. Which is a drop in the bucket. EDIT - but that's just the IPO, I wasn't even thinking about how much insiders will want to sell after the lockup ends...

[deleted]
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