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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#401

Post by dgellow »

trhway wrote: post #360
GolfPopper wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the main question for me is, why is this a war? It's a war because the hinted promise behind the hype that the first organization to reach some as-yet-entirely-theoretical AGI that can bootstrap itself to godlike capabilities will then Install Planetary Overlord* and rule the world as near-deities themselves, with the rest of the (surviving) human race as their slaves. I think it's a nonsensical idea, but that's th…

>Planetary Overlord* AGI is nice, yet not necessary. The orbit filled with Starlink descendants and datacenters will be the it. Anybody else wanting to get there would have to get permission. SpaceX/Musk have all the components for it to happen - from Starship to AI (including the army of robots on the ground). The governmental power/sovereignty of US will be used as a stepping stone (that is the strategy described i…

The discourse on this topic is at the point where I have no idea if people are serious or satirical. Please tell me you don’t seriously believe data centers in spaces is a realistic idea

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#402

Post by gpt5 »

aucisson_masque wrote: post #399
gpt5 wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scroll down to the leaderboard - https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Spoiler alert - they are all towards the bottom of the leaderboard. People come up with a wide variety of excuses for why they are not used despite being offered for significantly lower cost, but the answer is simply because they don't perform well enough for now.

There isn't even deepseek V4. I'd rather trust LLM arena leaderboard, which puts it on par with sonnet.

LM Arena uses human side by side voting, which limits its applicability to complex tasks.

The ARCPrize leaderboard does have Deepseek V3.2, which only scored 4% on ARC-AGI 2 (while the top models score over 80%). It also Kimi and Qwen, but they also didn't perform well.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#403

Post by dgellow »

ctkhn wrote: post #377
blahblaher wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the US cannot imagine anything else. Everything is a War, and the US must always win..

The US needs to start imagining something else. It's hard to think of the last war that the US won.

Do they need to win though? Losing wars seems to have worked out well so far, at least for the people who benefit from it

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#404

Post by trhway »

dgellow wrote: post #401
trhway wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Planetary Overlord* AGI is nice, yet not necessary. The orbit filled with Starlink descendants and datacenters will be the it. Anybody else wanting to get there would have to get permission. SpaceX/Musk have all the components for it to happen - from Starship to AI (including the army of robots on the ground). The governmental power/sovereignty of US will be used as a stepping stone (that is the strategy described i…

The discourse on this topic is at the point where I have no idea if people are serious or satirical. Please tell me you don’t seriously believe data centers in spaces is a realistic idea

I don't "believe". I'm arithmetically sure that it is going to happen, and it will beat the ground based on pretty much all metrics. Some of my comments with napkin numbers https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46882199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46880680 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46880486

Just a very rough primitive illustration - a land for a house in SV is like a $1M, and putting a 10 ton house into space at $100/kg - $1M. Existence of supposedly cheap land somewhere (with not much infrastructure usually) doesn't help as you put your computer nodes into a datacenter building with all the required infrastructure which cost more than the SV land on a sq foot basis.

And that is without consideration of how powerful a weapon is the energy generated by a humongous field of solar panels in space. Remember Reagan's Star Wars? Nuclear explosions as a source of power for the direct energy weapons like lasers, etc. Well, you wouldn't need the nukes anymore. Just redirect a bit of power from your compute nodes. And as i already wrote, the large transnational companies will have to take care about their own defense themselves https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47981423 - one more "feudal" aspect of the coming techno-feudalism.

Defense is one of the most important sovereign aspects, and upon acquiring it the transnationals will be able to acquire pretty fast the other sovereign aspects. Like enforcement of the Criminal Code of the Mars Colony - again pretty rough primitive illustration of course.

The feudal Europe emerged on the outskirts of the Roman Empire, and in our world the new order will be emerging faster on the outskirts (i.e. where reach and strength of the existing order is weaker), the space being one such "outskirts" dimension and the AI/hypercompute virtual world being the other.

To the commenter below with reddit link : they use human env temp for heat radiation estimate. That lowers the numbers and requires AC equipment. Ie they estimate space station, not datacenter

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#405

Post by throwaway27448 »

ericmay wrote: post #365
throwaway27448 wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's a particularly bold claim after thirty straight years of moving supply chains overseas. Capital is, inherently, the means of production. The world where we could compete is gone.

Capital is not the means of production. Capital is capital. If I have a few million dollars in my bank account I don’t all of a sudden have a factory. Remember from economics class you need capital, labor, and the means of production. Capital inflows are different from manufacturing outflows. The US has historically imported capital which is part of why we have such a large trade imbalance. I’d encourage you to do so…

> I have a few million dollars in my bank account I don’t all of a sudden have a factory.

No but money only has value because of a product of the human labor and production capacity it refers to. Money is not capital, it is a reference to/legal coercion of capital

> We compete hard and fast all day everyday

Sir have you ever been to the us? Lmao. We are only competitive in the industry of white collar work (financial/artisanal services), an industry that capital is actively gutting

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#406

Post by BobbyJo »

jmyeet wrote: post #121
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

So I got curious about the progression of processing power, specifically how long ago did a GPU have equivalent to the latest iPhone chip? The iPhone 17 Pro has the A19 Pro, which has ~2.5 FP32 TFLOPS. The RTX 5090 has ~100 TFLOPS, so a factor of 40. Obviously there are higher end cards than the 5090 and FP32 performance is only one of many metrics so nothing about this is perfect but it is interesting. The first con…

> So you're looking at about a 10 year lag from best consumer GPUs to a GPU with similar performance to a modern phone.

Two competing viewpoints to this:

1) It is getting harder to make the same performance gains, so maybe that 10 year window grows to 15 or 20.

> Put another way, their investment is going to be worthless in 10-15 yyears, absolute max.

2) The value of a GPU is not its flops relative to to other GPUs. Its value is it's output minus it's cost. If the value of its output is stable, or grows, it doesn't really matter if its efficiency relative to the latest and greatest diminishes.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#407

Post by roenxi »

rayiner wrote: post #396
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

The idea that America had “goodwill” in other countries before Trump is laughable. Where? Latin America? Africa? In the Muslim world? We bombed the hell out of all those places long before Trump. This most recent Iran war has generated less outrage in the Muslim world than the war against Iraq 20 years ago. American foreign policy since the 1950s, fixated on fighting communism and then terrorism, has meddled with so…

Although it is worth pointing out that something changed - prior to around 2010 the US had a financially dominant position and the internet was small. So it was feasible to totally ignore opinion in places like Latin America, Africa and the Muslim World.

What we've been seeing in more recent years is that the US can't get away with that so easily. Countries like Iran, China, Russia and India are capable of pushing back both in terms of the raw resources they can bring to bear and also increasingly in the ability to get their propaganda into the US discourse. The US is being manoeuvred into a one-among-equals position in practice and probably in the discourse too which will be a moral shock.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#408

Post by zozbot234 »

packetlost wrote: post #383
zozbot234 wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They compete with "mini" or "nano" model classes quite well given the price of inference. You'd need to "model hop" anyway, using Opus for everything is quite wasteful.

Now those aren't really "frontier models" now, are they.

They are on the frontier of local models, where the game is often to get the best bang for the buck. You can always scale model size and compute (Mythos, GPT Pro, Gemini DeepThink) to reach better outcomes, but that's not a very interesting strategy.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#409

Post by senordevnyc »

argomo wrote: post #397
GolfPopper wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the main question for me is, why is this a war? It's a war because the hinted promise behind the hype that the first organization to reach some as-yet-entirely-theoretical AGI that can bootstrap itself to godlike capabilities will then Install Planetary Overlord* and rule the world as near-deities themselves, with the rest of the (surviving) human race as their slaves. I think it's a nonsensical idea, but that's th…

Not everybody thinks it's nonsensical. Here's a different take: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If_Anyone_Builds_It,_Everyone_...

Yes, nonsensical people like EY don’t think it’s nonsensical.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#410

Post by throwaway27448 »

ericmay wrote: post #308
throwaway27448 wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> free iPhone with a mobile plan I get your point but in what sense is that "free"? What mobile plan giving you an iphone doesn't come with explicit debt?

Here's an example from 2025 with a major US carrier - Verizon: https://tech.yahoo.com/phones/deals/articles/want-free-iphon... They run various schemes like this all the time, you can also trade in your existing phone a lot of times for pretty favorable terms. I've traded in phones that were a few years old and gotten $1000+ for them, especially when switching providers.

That's not free except at point of sale.
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