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US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

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Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#401
post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Renewables being a good thing is not an "extreme left" viewpoint, it's just reality. That being said, I'm going to guess that extreme left supports renewables near 100%.

Have you looked at the current administration's policies regarding renewables? Also, at his rallies, drill baby drill wasn't exactly met with booing

> Have you looked at the current administration's policies regarding renewables?

Have you looked at the current administration's policies regarding reality, for that matter?

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything I said was true : Bretton woods exists, and my opinion flows from that. Feel free to disregard it or correct the facts, I think that'd be a good discussion. And yeah, USA might do dumb things that put them into a bind, but ultimately the peaceful flow of traffic through Hormuz is a goal worth pursuing for the world economic health.

I'm happy to endulge in a good discussion. My argument is not that deep for sure, but you are only referencing Bretton woods. The problem with US petro dollar is always the same: we don't know what would have been if it wouldn't exist. But my main point was very specific to the strait of hormuz and how it was flowing without the help of the USA, now stoped because of the influnece of the USA and how the USA can't res…

Playing devils advocate, the results are not always intended. I think the intent was to secure the area / prevent a state from becoming hegemonic, esp a state which has proven to be prone to harassing shipping and allies in the area (to say the last), as well as a state which is directly aiding an invasion of Europe/former USSR independent states.

So, circling back to my original comment, the Iran war is in line with the principles of keeping peaceful free trade safe (perhaps only for "us"), but alas, as you say, free trade has paused while we try to do that.

That's it. I dont think that's a hugely controversial statement or obviously false.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#403
post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You cannot just switch an entire country's energy source on a finger snap no one is suggesting that > nor do we have a viable alternative for making nitrogen based fertilizer nor is anyone suggesting that

Disagree. I assume your understanding of "demand destruction" is mixing concepts. GP said switching to alternative sources isn't demand destruction when it IS technically and relatively. The parent's point: until you get those renewables online (decade long process now with permitting), prices will go up. You'll have people using less energy (in general) and less O&G -- both are quintessential demand destruction. For…

Using less of any resource because it’s been blocked doesn’t mean the demand is destroyed. The demand can remain perfectly the same or even go up.

My point was that the OP was myopically focusing on fossil fuel do demand when the real demand that would lead to switching to renewables is the demand for energy.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#404
The decades long observation seems to hold gain: Reps were always near the oil-military complex and their main policy after elections always aims to offer them huge profits. An almost theatrical war with a puppet oil producing country achieves all goals. They don't care about people, environment or the world. It will last as long as their benefits outweigh their costs.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#405
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a time when USA guaranteed the safe passage of shipping, which helped secure a peaceful world order, apparently. I view this as a continuation of that legacy, but admit I only have 1-2 books supporting this view.

This is some extraordinary up-is-down construction. Hormuz was open in February, and for decades preceding that. It's closed now. How is this situation the result of the "guarantee of safe passage of shipping", exactly?

1) Iran has been naughty v. shipping for a long time, directly and indirectly

2) Iran has been naughty v. USA's allies for a long time, directly and indirectly

3) Iran has been naughty v. USA itself for a long time, directly and indirectly

So, in the interested of stable trade through Hormuz, someone decided to push Iran out. The intent was not to close the strait. The effect was to create a situation unsafe for trade, which is ironic and comical, but it's not the intent.

So, since principles determine intent, I think I was not being contradictory.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are much easier ways of increasing the oil prices that don't have as much drawbacks as trump's war. Of course, for _some_ reason most people and countries prefer _lowering_ oil prices.

Higher oil prices makes renewables even more competitive, so this is another situation where the extreme left and extreme right may agree.

> Higher oil prices makes renewables even more competitive, so this is another situation where the extreme left and extreme right may agree.

Another way would be to introduce carbon pricing, which folks like Greenspan, Volker, Bernanke, Yellen, etc endorsed:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economists%27_Statement_on_Car...

You add a surcharge on carbon emissions, they raise the prices of carbon-intensive activities, which get passed onto end consumers. Companies which reduce their carbon footprint would be able to sell products/services for less money and where many people would choose because it's cheaper.

The key: the money collected is returned to consumers (why it's labelled "dividend") on an average basis. So if you use less carbon than average your refund will be more than your surcharge outlay and you'll come out ahead. If you use more than average, then it's more money out of pocket.

Sadly when Canada tried this under the Trudeau Liberals the Conservatives—which tend to be (federally) concentrated in the O&G-dominant western provinces—attacked it as a "tax" (regardless that the money was refunded), even though it's probably the most market efficient mechanism—which Conservatives even testified to: "Scott Moe says Saskatchewan considered carbon tax alternatives, but found them too costly":

* https://nationalpost.com/news/scott-moe-says-saskatchewan-co...

The gradual increasing of the price would put continued, increasing pressure to reduce emissions, but would not (net) cost people more out of pocket.

The other market efficient solution would probably a cap-and-trade, which is how Canada and the US (under Bush 41) dealt with acid rain.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you are inject 3-5 trillion dollars into the economy over the span of months, it takes a while for reality to catch up.

idk, I read an analysis recently that retail investors in funds like the S&P500 are breaking how the stock market is "supposed" to work since people keep pumping the same money every month for retirement into the same 500 companies (or whatever an index is funding) without consequence to their actions, so they're never punished. Line goes up. The purchasing power of the masses outweighs the old brokerage class that d…

>keep pumping the same money every month for retirement into the same 500 companies (or whatever an index is funding) without consequence to their actions, so they're never punished.

When a buyer buys a stock, they are not giving money to the business.

Als, businesses get removed from the SP500 all the time:

https://www.bankrate.com/investing/s-p-500-stocks-list-of-ad...

They generally have to perform (profit, profit margin, revenue growth, market share growth, political influence growth, etc), and the higher the performance, the more their shares are worth (obviously).

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#409
post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible, in the short term, but eventually the only oil flowing thru the Strait of Hormuz will be Iranian oil, and perhaps not even that. Give countries enough time and they'll rather invest in building a way around Iran than giving them money for passage thru international waters.

The toll will be just a bit under what it would cost to divert the supply.

Well even today you have the UAE and Qatar warning them not to do this. It’s likely to me that the fighting won’t stop until the situation is different, even if the US were to pull out today.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#410
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is some extraordinary up-is-down construction. Hormuz was open in February, and for decades preceding that. It's closed now. How is this situation the result of the "guarantee of safe passage of shipping", exactly?

1) Iran has been naughty v. shipping for a long time, directly and indirectly 2) Iran has been naughty v. USA's allies for a long time, directly and indirectly 3) Iran has been naughty v. USA itself for a long time, directly and indirectly So, in the interested of stable trade through Hormuz, someone decided to push Iran out. The intent was not to close the strait. The effect was to create a situation unsafe for trad…

Definition for "naughty" and examples thereof might help. Because it doesn't mean "closed".

The point isn't to make a moral argument for Iran's position, just a realpolitik one. We fucked with them, they fuck with us. They're winning, unfortunately as it might be. Ergo, we shouldn't have fucked with them.

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