A mere 8 months ago, Trump and his cronies were saying that Iran’s nuclear program was “totally obliterated” every chance they got.
New day, new talking points. Surely this isn’t a surprise to you?
The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran
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Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran
#402The president of peace btw. I'm baffled at the lack of calls to boycott the Fifa world cup in US. And at the double standards applied to Russians and Israelis in their wars of aggression. I guess Israel can play the "October 7th" card at least which was an insane horror.
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> Working towards war with Iran has been bipartisan US policy for decades now
Obama signed the Iran nuclear deal in July 2015 [1].
Biden didn't put any policy focus on Iran, in part becase, with the benefit of hindsight, it's difficult to distill any policy focus from that Presidency following Covid. But he also didn't ratchet up pressure in any material way [2]. (And to be clear, I'm not saying that's good.)
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Ac...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_rel...
Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran
#403I recall someone (name escapes me at the moment) defining WW3 as ignition in 5 flashpoints between belligerent groupings: - Eastern Africa esp. Sudan, which we all nearly universally ignore - Israel Iran - Russia and a neighbor which we know today is Ukraine - Pakistan Afghanistan India - China Taiwan Plus Plus Attributes that distinguish WW3 from previous world wars were IIRC: Contained conflagration, short targeted…
First, I don't think this leads to WW3 although I would agree with you that there is a general global tendency towards escalation. Still, I think we can not call this WW3 and I am not 100% certain this is a build-up to WW3 either. As for North Korea: I think the situation is not solely about North Korea itself but China. China is kind of acting as protective proxy here. I don't see North Korea as primary problem to t…
Taiwan needs nukes on low flying hypersonic cruise missles now. Seems that would halt Chinese aggression.
Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran
#404There seems to be an uptick around 1am on Polymarket. https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by
Yes many markets began to react at 1:14AM EST.
Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran
#405The take home message from this is that the only way for any country to be secure is to have nuclear weapons.
North Korea looks a lot less unhinged now.
It is still unhinged, but not because of nuclear weapons. Ukraine, and now Iran, showed the whole world what happens when you don’t have a nuclear deterrence.
Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran
#4062 countries with the best war technologies on earth must work together to have a war with embargod-country-for-decades. And those 2 counties are founder of Board of Peace.
> 2 countries with the best war technologies on earth must work together to have a war with embargod-country-for-decades
It gives us a regional coalition partner. That's never a bad thing, regardless of circumstances.
Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran
#407Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran
#408While I have no love for the Iranian regime I fear this will end up like the 'liberation' of Iraq: A massive power vacuum in an unstable Islamic regime. What even is the plan here if the air assault fails? Boots on the ground? In Iran?
The plan is a show of power. Trump will leave in 2 years, leaving much of the world in disarray because he had no plan whatsoever, and his staff is literally out of the movie Idiocracy. Nothing of lasting value will come out of the horrors that happened in the past 3 years, and in 10 years we (the world) will look back into the present with disbelief.
> in 10 years we (the world) will look back into the present with disbelief.
This is a very optimistic outlook, to the point of naivete, though I really hope you are right. In reality, neither Trump nor his cronies are acting like people who imagine they will be out of power anytime soon. In 10 years the world will likely still be dealing with the fallout of this administration, if not still dealing with the administration itself.
Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran
#409The president of peace btw. I'm baffled at the lack of calls to boycott the Fifa world cup in US. And at the double standards applied to Russians and Israelis in their wars of aggression. I guess Israel can play the "October 7th" card at least which was an insane horror.
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Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran
#410I recall someone (name escapes me at the moment) defining WW3 as ignition in 5 flashpoints between belligerent groupings: - Eastern Africa esp. Sudan, which we all nearly universally ignore - Israel Iran - Russia and a neighbor which we know today is Ukraine - Pakistan Afghanistan India - China Taiwan Plus Plus Attributes that distinguish WW3 from previous world wars were IIRC: Contained conflagration, short targeted…
> And essentially none of us will know the truth, even the reasons.
Maybe not in the details, but the general geopolitical "axes" (USA/the "West" vs China/Russia/BRICS/"Global South"/etc) have become increasingly obvious in the last years. And so far, most of the recent conflicts fit pretty neatly into that pattern.
Of course there are more things running in parallel, like the general shift to the right, Trump in the US, the specific situation with Israel/Palestine, the emergence of AI, etc.
But I don't see why any of this needs any other "grand secret cause" to explain the current conflicts.