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Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

arstechnica.com

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Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#401

Post by chipsa »

nerdralph wrote: post #199
dzonga wrote: post #126

The trump administration by refusing to admit the superior metrics of solar, they're just burying their heads in sand. As admitting that solar is now a superior and cost effective means of energy means admitting that the US is no longer top dog. As empires are built on mastering a source of energy. the Portuguese | Dutch - mastered wind to power their ships. the British mastered coal to power Industrial Revolution. A…

Panels prices bottomed about a year ago below many manufacturer's cash cost, and have gone mostly sideways since. https://www.pvxchange.com/Price-Index If silver stays above $70/oz, prices will likely go up by 5-10%. Until Perovskite tandem technology matures, there's unlikely to be any significant reduction in PV module prices.

I got panels last year because I’m pretty confident that the majority of the cost of putting panels on my roof is the stuff besides the actual panels. So pricing won’t go down much for getting an actual installer to do it.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#402

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

SlightlyLeftPad wrote: post #362
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first set of PV panels I put on our van didn't even make their 10 year warranty @ 80%. Anecdata, sure, but still data.

Being mounted on a moving vehicle subjects them to a much more dynamic and hostile environment than having arguably better quality, fixed panels sitting in a dry desert for 25 years. I’m actually impressed that yours lasted 10 years.

Open for debate. They are mounted horizontally on the van, which makes them subject to almost no face-on wind forces at all. The aluminum frames are bolted to the van, but the van structure is metal and likely doesn't move much in terms of distances between bolts other than due to thermal expansion, which is also true of my ground-mount array (in the dry desert :)

There's more vibration on the van, but how the impacts their life compared to the months of daily 30mph+ winds hit the faces/rear of the ground mount array seems hard to tell without a lot of research (which someone may have done).

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#403

Post by ericd »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #342
ericd wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 25 year thing comes from the 25 year warranties - they’re generally warrantied to be at 80% power capability at 25 years. I don’t know the real lifetime, but presumably it’s a lot longer than 25 years. And by that point, maybe we’ll have the deuteriumdollar…

The first set of PV panels I put on our van didn't even make their 10 year warranty @ 80%. Anecdata, sure, but still data.

Interesting, most of the anecdata I've heard elsewhere (for residential solar) goes the other direction - that they degrade slower than expected.

You're sure there are no dead microinverters involved, right? I guess that'd be more than 20% on a van.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#404

Post by FarmerPotato »

SlightlyLeftPad wrote: post #391
PearlRiver wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that is by design. There is a reason why people get food stamps and not just 1000 dollars on their bank account.

I suppose you’re right. Now that you mention it, are food stamps similarly inflationary to having 1000 dollars deposited into their bank account?

I doubt they make any inflation in the sense "more dollars chasing fewer goods"

SNAP etc makes the base-load revenue of many rural grocery stores.

The food is going to be produced, and scale is better.

I work with disabled SNAP recipients and it's never been easy.

$1000 is um, high...

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#405

Post by eucyclos »

jandrese wrote: post #231
nerdralph wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't start with a 5MW project. Start with a 10-20kW ground-mount project in your back yard. Then build a 100-200kW project before trying MW.

I think the hardest part of building a solar farm is the permitting. Many municipalities are hostile to the idea of converting farmland into solar fields, even with agrovoltaics. There are special interest groups that may come in and try to derail your project by propagandizing the local community against it. "But what will we eat?" is a propaganda point that you will hear a lot even though it's totally bogus. If I w…

That's probably why it's best to stay small. If you've gotten permits for 10kw project in a backyard or on a Walmart roof, you'll probably have a leg up when you start playing at a scale that brings out the nimbys.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#406

Post by roenxi »

jacquesm wrote: post #263
roenxi wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Adam Smith famously wrote that slavery was economically detrimental way back in 1776. It still took nearly 100 years to abolish slavery... Slavery had basically been a thing for all of human history up to that point, and based on my discussions on HN many smart people don't believe a lot of what Adam Smith said. There are still a lot of basic economic ideas that would make people much wealthier that struggle to get…

Ah, the master of bad takes is at it again. > Slavery had basically been a thing for all of human history up to that point, Except that of course it wasn't. > and based on my discussions on HN many smart people don't believe a lot of what Adam Smith said. And many smart people do. > There are still a lot of basic economic ideas that would make people much wealthier that struggle to get out into the wild. Yes, such as…

> Ah, the master of bad takes is at it again.

Peace and love to you too, brother.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#407

Post by dranudin »

dyauspitr wrote: post #374
dzonga wrote: post #126

The trump administration by refusing to admit the superior metrics of solar, they're just burying their heads in sand. As admitting that solar is now a superior and cost effective means of energy means admitting that the US is no longer top dog. As empires are built on mastering a source of energy. the Portuguese | Dutch - mastered wind to power their ships. the British mastered coal to power Industrial Revolution. A…

The Trump administration is intentionally trying to kill solar so that their oil buddies can make money for another 5-10 years. It’s insane to think that close to 80% of cars in shenzen are electric. I don’t even understand how that works. These EV cars have been around for about a decade. How has the entire population of the city purchased a new vehicle in that short span of time.

I guess most just did not have a car before...

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#408

Post by eucyclos »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #13
Wistar wrote: post #11

Related: Alec Watson’s recent, and excellent, Technology Connections YouTube piece on renewable energy. “You are being misled about renewable energy technology” https://youtu.be/KtQ9nt2ZeGM?si=CJ_Tt9DnWSKH8eGC

One nice thing about what’s happening is that politics are losing to reality. I’m not even sure how this became a left vs right issue in the first place (isn’t the right meant to be pro free market!?) but it doesn’t matter at this point anyway. Eg. Texas is doing really well in renewable rollouts (see the amount of battery capacity they are putting in - https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/energy-envi...…

I suspect it's a left vs right issue because the right is the cheerleader of the military industrial complex, which is only justified by protecting oil interests. If oil becomes a curiosity useful for making certain consumer products and little else, the military industrial complex is oversized by any metric, hence the right is against that.

Or to oversimplify even more: it's the Bush dynasty's fault.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#409

Post by Rebelgecko »

idiotsecant wrote: post #396
dalyons wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Check out the crazy amount of battery additions in California in 2025 and planned for 2026. It’s gunna be fine

That 'crazy' amount is not even scratching the surface of the surface of what we would need for a high-solar grid, let alone a majority solar grid. Not even within an order of magnitude. You don't have to take my word for it, the CAISO literally provides the data.

How much more do we need? 2x the capacity? 5x? 10x? The state has added a ridiculous amount of battery over the last couple years so it doesn't seem intractable

I remember looking at CAISO's graphs a few years ago and when the sun goes down we were basically completely dependent on imports and natty gas, especially for scaling up to demand around 6-7pm. Looking at today's graph, batteries were actually our top electricity source for a while around peak electricity time. Natty has been able to stay pretty flat, and even now its neck and neck with batteries

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#410

Post by Rebelgecko »

bilsbie wrote: post #209

I was curious to try a project: can I charge my car 100 miles per day for under $1000 all in? I’m trying to source a battery power pack and cheap panels.

Best bet is probably a 240v inverter, ground mounted used panels (can often be found ridiculously cheap)and a Docan or similar battery pack. 240v inverters made for the US tend to be pricier but you may be able to get an EU model to work. 120v won't be able to recharge 100mi/day. If you're in the US $1000 is prob not enough though
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