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The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

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Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#401

Post by wiseowise »

accidentallfact wrote: post #155
fellowmartian wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re missing the point of Dune. They had their Butlerian Jihad and won - the machines were banned. And what did it get them? Feudalism, cartels, stagnation. Does anyone seriously want to live in the Dune universe? The problem isn’t in the thinking machines, it’s in who owns them and gets our rent. We need open source models running on dirt cheap hardware.

The point of Dune is that the worst danger are people who obey authority without questioning it.

That's not the point of Dune. Who blindly obeyed who?

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#402

Post by tim333 »

achenet wrote: post #316
nakedneuron wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that how Bitcoin "works"?

err... how Bitcoin works, or how the speculative bubble around cryptocurrencies circa 2019-2021 worked? Bitcoin is actually kind of useful for some niche use cases - namely illegal transactions, like buying drugs online (Silk Road, for example), and occasionally for international money transfers - my French father once paid an Argentinian architect in Bitcoin, because it was the easiest way to transfer the money due…

Most bubbles have a peak and crash. "The Bitcoin bubble" keeps peaking and crashing and then going on to a higher peak.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#403

Post by sdwr »

> arXiv "emergent" (the count of AI papers about emergence) has a clear, unambiguous R² maximum. The other four are monotonically better fit by a line

The only metric going infinite is the one that measures hype

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#404

Post by s1mon »

Many have predicted the singularity, and I found this to be a useful take. I do note that Hans Moravec predicted in 1988's "Mind Children" that "computers suitable for humanlike robots will appear in the 2020s", which is not completely wrong.

He also argued that computing power would continue growing exponentially and that machines would reach roughly human-level intelligence around the early to mid-21st century, often interpreted as around 2030–2040. He estimated that once computers achieved processing capacity comparable to the human brain (on the order of 10¹⁴–10¹⁵ operations per second), they could match and then quickly surpass human cognitive abilities.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#405

Post by Taniwha »

I was at an alternative type computer unconference and someone has organised a talk about the singularity, it was in a secondary school classroom and as evening fell in a room full of geeks no one could figure out how to turn on the lights .... we concluded that the singularity probably wasn't going to happen

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#406

Post by wiseowise »

javier_e06 wrote: post #328

I had to ask duck.ai to summarize the article in plain English. It said that the article claims that is not necessarily that AI is getting smarter but that people might be getting too stupid to understand what are they getting into. Can confirm.

Don't be too hard on yourself. With the amount shit humans generate each day it is impossible to read every essay.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#407

Post by derpyzza »

javier_e06 wrote: post #328

I had to ask duck.ai to summarize the article in plain English. It said that the article claims that is not necessarily that AI is getting smarter but that people might be getting too stupid to understand what are they getting into. Can confirm.

the irony in this comment though

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#408

Post by noiv »

stego-tech wrote: post #28

This is delightfully unhinged, spending an amazing amount of time describing their model and citing their methodologies before getting to the meat of the meal many of us have been braying about for years: whether the singularity actually happens or not is irrelevant so much as whether enough people believe it will happen and act accordingly. And, yep! A lot of people absolutely believe it will and are acting accordin…

"If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences."

Thomas theorem is a theory of sociology which was formulated in 1928 by William Isaac Thomas and Dorothy Swaine Thomas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_theorem

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#409

Post by baxtr »

austinjp wrote: post #389
baxtr wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The end of humanity" has been proclaimed many times over. Humanity won't end. It will change like it always has. We get rid of some problems, and we get a bunch of new problems instead. And on, and on, and on.

Russell's chicken (or turkey) would like a word. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkey_illusion

I love that you brought this up.

Chickens are killed ALL the time. It’s a recurring mass event. If you were a smart chicken you could see that pattern and put it into a formula.

In contrast, the end of Humanity would be a singular event. It’s even in the name…

And that is fiction / speculation in comparison. It’s not backed by any data. Human survival over 300,000 years by contrast is.

I mean it’s fine to dream things up, but let’s be fair and call it what it is.

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