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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#401

Post by acuozzo »

PeterHolzwarth wrote: post #308
acuozzo wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their biggest problem[…] is demographic in nature. https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2024/

This is a profoundly important - central, even - issue that I am very surprised to not see widely understood or acknowledged. China is in a life-or-death race against time. A good number of their decisions are explained when viewed through this demographic implosion-bomb they are facing.

The same can be argued for Russia. Many-- myself included --believe it's the #1 reason Putin decided to invade the Ukraine as its youth are seen by the Kremlin as "Russian enough".

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#402

Post by fsckboy »

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

>The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon

no it doesn't.

it's much closer to "you need the best economy to be a hegemon"

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#403

Post by oceanplexian »

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

> The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon

Unfortunately, the data doesn't back this up. The US economy is actually one of the least trade-dependent nations in the world.

27% of GDP is trade-oriented (The value of imports and exports as a function of GDP), while the global average is 63%. The US is so developed, that even if the country was completely cut off from the world and operated as an internal economy it would still remain the world's largest.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#404

Post by bilbo0s »

acuozzo wrote: post #296
maxerickson wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Software productivity doubling would be a huge boon for the economy, not a drag. Of course it's very disruptive for people that lose their jobs, but many of them will get similar new jobs, and the overall impact is higher output.

> Of course it's very disruptive for people that lose their jobs, Why would the Jevons Paradox not apply here?

It does.

There will be loads more people who will want software customized to themselves and their needs!

The catch, of course, is that there are, all of a sudden, a whole lot more people who will now be able to create that software.

How will it all land? No idea. But it just feels like a bad idea to go long on software development when weighed against the opportunity cost of going long on domain expertise.

For instance, from 1980 to 1990, the number of secretaries doing all the typing and filing in the workforce severely constricted. That said, the number of actual typists in the workforce skyrocketed!

No one lost the need for typing and filing services. Tools, (PC, word processors, databases), simply became more available. Which decreased the need for people who were formerly doing the typing and filing as a service. Now people could reliably do the typing and filing on their own.

Jevon's paradox in action! Exponentially more typing and filing is happening today than was happening in 1976 or 1980. At the same time, there are infinitesimally smaller numbers of actual secretaries out in the workforce today than were in the workforce pre-1980. And the ones that are still in the workforce are doing much different work than they did pre-1980.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#405

Post by baby »

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

Can US debt be seen as equity? We mint equity from times to times, do buy backs, allow people to tokenize it to pay with it and so on...

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#406

Post by AnthonyMouse »

oceanplexian wrote: post #403
torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

> The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon Unfortunately, the data doesn't back this up. The US economy is actually one of the least trade-dependent nations in the world. 27% of GDP is trade-oriented (The value of imports and exports as a function of GDP), while the global average is 63%. The US is so developed, that even if the country was completely cut off from the world and operated as an…

That's mostly a result of you using percentages rather than dollars and the US being one of the largest countries. 27% of US GDP is 165% of Germany's GDP and Germany is the third largest economy in the world after the US and China.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#407

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

Espressosaurus wrote: post #242
JKCalhoun wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, he'll be gone one day and I am going to be all in on that day. It'll all be hockey-sticks from that moment on.

How much of America’s growth since the 40s is attributable to its hegemony, stability, and the emergence of USD as the reserve currency of the world? And where other developed, stable nations started dropping in population, the US continued growing thanks to immigration and its center as a research Mecca. All of those are being unwound as we speak, and it’ll take decades to prove to the world that any trade policy an…

>growth since the 40s

The US growth trend has been fairly constant since the late 1800s. There's no real discontinuity in the trend around the time the US become hegemon.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/GDP_per_...

Part of why Switzerland is so stable is because of its neutrality. Switzerland doesn't have to deal with Russia interfering in its elections the way the US does.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#408

Post by baby »

SmirkingRevenge wrote: post #283
phkahler wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dollar is going down in value right now. Thats the plan. It makes foreign goods more expensive and exports more affordable to other countries. Meanwhile it should have less inflationary pressure on domestically produced stuff like housing. I dont know if this is going to work or collapse. If it does work IMO they still need to reduce the debt - current actions are because we are backed into a corner, so that need…

Eh, it's not a plan, it's make believe. It's a flimsy back-filled rationale thrown on top the mercurial (and often sadistic) whims of an American Caligula, so the elite enablers can pretend there's something rational - or even good - about the chaos and destruction they are supporting. There isn't. It's just chaos and destruction.

What scares me is that lots of American believe there is a plan and that the current administration is competent

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#409

Post by watwut »

phkahler wrote: post #245
torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

The dollar is going down in value right now. Thats the plan. It makes foreign goods more expensive and exports more affordable to other countries. Meanwhile it should have less inflationary pressure on domestically produced stuff like housing. I dont know if this is going to work or collapse. If it does work IMO they still need to reduce the debt - current actions are because we are backed into a corner, so that need…

Who is that "we" backed into corner? USA as such certainly not.

Maybe you mean "pro-democracy anti abuse" people? Those yes. But administration and far right are not in corner. They are in full active act achieving exactly what they wanted.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#410

Post by mndgs »

oceanplexian wrote: post #403
torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

> The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon Unfortunately, the data doesn't back this up. The US economy is actually one of the least trade-dependent nations in the world. 27% of GDP is trade-oriented (The value of imports and exports as a function of GDP), while the global average is 63%. The US is so developed, that even if the country was completely cut off from the world and operated as an…

Nonsense. If 27% of GDP is suddenly gone, how US economy could be the largest? (rest of the world can substitute US trade between itself)
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