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Tesla is committing automotive suicide

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Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#401

Post by scottyah »

habinero wrote: post #330
scottyah wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

maybe? Tesla is the biggest reason there are any electric vehicles on the road today, I haven't heard of anyone (knowledgeable) who has even hinted otherwise. I can understand not liking Elon, but trashing the companies he's formed and the marvels they've created is just proof you don't value a truthful understanding of the world.

Elon bought Tesla, he didn't start it.

I guess that may be technically correct, but that's really just a anti-elon reddit type comment you're parroting. There were like four people and him "buying it" was just investing way more money in than anyone else wanted to.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#402

Post by Nevermark »

godelski wrote: post #393
Nevermark wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you want some math beyond identifying different scaling issues, go for it.

I have. That's why I'm certain you're wrong. But if you're too lazy to do it yourself there's plenty of papers written on this stuff

Well then, use your math to address a point. Just one.

In a vacuum, radiative heat loss per time hyper scales with temperature to the 4th power.

In orbit large and complex heat transfer systems are not going to be practical. On a surface, specialized heat pumps can localize heat energy to very high intensity. With critical reliability advantages of stability, vibration control, complete sun shading, weaker size constraints, etc.

That is a tremendous advantage that will overwhelm most other details and tradeoffs, because the two main constraints, and operating costs, are energy production and heat dispersion. The latter imposing a limit on the former.

(You have no knowledge of how effectively I use my time. If you have a valid point, make it, instead of - whatever you are doing. Claiming you know things without sharing your reasoning and aspersive language are for the posers. Just communicate why you think, what you think.)

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#403

Post by tzs »

dissent wrote: post #367
whynotmaybe wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Outside of the personal opinions of Musk, what is the most annoying for me is the constant false promises. They sell cars based on promises that a missing function will work in a few months/years and that your car will be compatible. With the years of feedback we have now, we know that those were not promises but lies. Other brands sell as-is cars, without empty promises. (outside the stupid "perfect outback trip" in…

Thanks for the thoughtful response. You know what, I do feel a bit conned by this vision only implementation. It wasn't obvious when we test drove it, and they didn't mention it. When we picked the car up, on the shop floor, before it had even moved we saw the "Park Assist Degraded" warning and questioned it. They assured us it just needed time to calibrate. It has never gone away. It will never go away. As a consume…

> He deserves credit where credit is due. He did push us into the EV era.

Nissan should get some credit, too. Tesla started production on the Roadster in 2008, which beat Nissan's Leaf which started in 2010, but the Leaf sold much better.

Tesla only made about 2500 before it was discontinued and the Model S was release.

Nissan sold 20 000 Leafs in its first year. It was the first mass produced EV.

It took until early 2020 for Tesla cumulative sales to pass Leaf cumulative sales.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#404

Post by array_key_first »

direwolf20 wrote: post #336
array_key_first wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is part of the reason why I believe cars should delegate as much software functionality to your phone as possible. Phones have good voice assistants and they will get better, same with GPS and music. Just let the phone do it. Plus, when the software is out of support you don't have to buy a new car.

What if I don't have my phone, or if someone else drives the car?

These are niche enough use cases I don't think they're worth bothering about.

I wouldn't dump millions into a custom GPS solution for that 1 time out of 1 million someone drives a car without a smartphone. Especially when that GPS system is guaranteed to be worse than Google maps and not as well supported.

If someone else drives your car they can connect their phone. Which is an improvement, because now they have THEIR music and navigation. See, it comes with personalization out of the box and automatically!

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#405

Post by tzs »

dissent wrote: post #345

I bought a new Model Y a few months ago. On the whole, it's a great car, it really is. They've pretty much nailed the fundamentals. It's opinionated, not unlike Apple, but if the opinions work for you you'll enjoy the car. But there are shortcomings, and they are jarring. The parking sensors basically don't work at all due to being vision only - and apparently can't be made to work properly. The lane change and rever…

> The parking sensors basically don't work at all due to being vision only - and apparently can't be made to work properly

What's stupid about this is that it is hard to come up with a good reason for it. The no LIDAR thing is at least understandable because at the time LIDAR was very expensive. Ultrasonic parking sensors are cheap.

Same for automatic windshield wipers, which have been a significant source of complaints from Tesla owners. Pretty much everyone else uses a dedicated sensor that is simple and inexpensive and works well. Technology Connections has a good video on how it works [1]. Tesla uses vision.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLm7Q92xMjQ

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#406

Post by the_sleaze_ »

seec wrote: post #395
dissent wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was in the market for an EV due to great tax advantages. I assumed BYD would be the sweet spot, but test drove a Tesla for comparison. I ended up with the Tesla. It is hands down the better vehicle and I'd be very surprised if anybody seriously thought otherwise. There wasn't very much in it price wise so that wasn't a factor. The BYD (Sealion 7) wasn't even a bad car. It's a good car. But it's inspired and just a…

Funny that you say the BYD was tasteless. I definitely agree, and it's something that can be said about much Chinese-made stuff. In French we have the word "chinoiserie" which is used to describe objects with a certain aesthetic, reminiscent of Chinese art. It is used derogatively to mean something lacks taste even if it looks sophisticated at first sight.

Americans have the same "Chinese-ium", but referring to the materials its made with. Cheap plastic, low durability, lead-based paint etc

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#407

Post by stickfigure »

tim333 wrote: post #357
stickfigure wrote: post #150

Bipedal robots are dumb. A robot that can only walk around my house is still useless. A robot that can wheel or track or even park in front of my dryer and fold laundry would be incredible. Yet every demo is Robot Jumps And Dances, not Robot Does Something Useful. My theory is that bipedal motion is the "easy" problem, and fine motor control is the hard problem. That makes me bearish on Optimus: A car with questionab…

Here's a figure robot unloading the dishwasher https://x.com/chatgpt21/status/2016210798884815156

Progress! First robot demo of something useful.

Still, whoever puts this robot on a wheeled chassis for half the price, twice the battery life, and 3X the reliability is going to own the market.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#408

Post by cosmicgadget »

cratermoon wrote: post #382
cosmicgadget wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want to restrict the discussion to just the Cybertruck, it's more like the Edsel - an embarrassing failure from a dominant manufacturer. The Delorean similarities are largely skin-deep. Also probably 99% of people here are familiar with Deloreans and stainless steel.

In what world is Tesla a dominant manufacturer? The company's market share peaked at 4.31% in 2023. That's behind GM, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai, Stellantis (Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep), Honda, and Nissan-Mitsubishi. Only VW, Subaru, and BMW had a smaller market share.

They sure as hell dominated EV sales for quite a few years. Their valuation is absolutely dominant compared to any of those brands.

Regardless, they're closer to Edsel-era Ford than DMC.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#409

Post by alterom »

scottyah wrote: post #396
stephen_g wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea isn’t great, tunnels for cars or pods have really low throughput (low occupancy + safety margin headways, even at a high speed). And it hinged on them magically revolutionising an already highly mature field, which surprise, surprise didn’t work out. If it had been possible to speed up and reduce the cost of tunneling, the thing that would most make sense is running regular trains through them. But they neve…

I disagree, tunnels for transport of both people and goods, especially in high-density urban areas is the best way to go. Walking and biking is great for their distance, but cars and trucks are still needed for larger and heavier items. Using shared transportation (like a train) is terrible for "The last mile". Doing everything at night just seems like a band-aid and sucks for all those workers. The idea of trying to…

Because The Boring Company hasn't built any tunnels worth noting, perhaps, and stalled most of its projects.

This isn't a case against tunnels, this is a case against The Boring Company.

The tunnels aren't a great idea apriori. Good luck pitching the tunnels idea in Venice.

The tunnels may be a good or a bad idea depending on many variables, and the tunnels that the Boring Company has actually built are worthless.

As for the tunneling equipment: selling those machines isn't their core business, and there's no evidence these machines have, or may in the feasible future, do anything revolutionary in the tunnel industry (i.e., built radically better, radically cheaper, or radically faster).

The idea of having such machines is good. They don't have such machines.

> It's still premature to say that they haven't revolutionized the field

It's never premature to say that. Read what you wrote.

You can say a field has been revolutionized once a revolution takes place.

It's hasn't.

The impact of the Boring company on the way tunnels are dug is, very sharply, zero.

Is it possible that they will? Sure. It's also possible that Britney Spears will. She still has the time, it's premature to say she wouldn't do it, right?

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#410

Post by holtkam2 »

What is so enjoyable about this is that it'll be all musk's fault when we look back and realize Tesla just died off over time. Once other companies started actually competing with him, he wasn't smart enough to hold the lead. Lucid, byd, even hyundai, all made better cars within a few years, so Elon just basically gave up. I love that
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