Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling • Hacker News Board

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#401

Post by stickfigure » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:56 PM UTC

skippyboxedhero wrote: post #121

stickfigure wrote: post #49

The only material objection mentioned in the article is that prediction markets are easy to manipulate. Well, only if they are thinly traded. If they get mentioned a lot more on CNN and CNBC, that is likely to change.

No, completely wrong. Deep markets are not more accurate. People who are unfamiliar with how regulated gamblings works assume that the "market" is just lots of informed people rationally trading with each other. This is not how it works. Bookmakers post lines to a small group of syndicates up to a limit, they will often do this non-publicly, and this is how prices are set. They are not set by the "wisdom of crowds",…

> People who are unfamiliar with how regulated gamblings works assume that

I work in the regulated gambling industry. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket do not work like the regulated gambling industry. You don't know what you're talking about.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#402

Post by CodesInChaos » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:05 PM UTC

maaaaattttt wrote: post #372

Wouldn't these markets be the perfect "crime crowdsourcing" platform? Let's say a bad actor wants XYZ to happen so they organise a bet on XYZ not happening. Then make sure as many different accounts that they control directly or indirectly bet a lot of money in the same way. Now anyone willing to win the prize can decide to make sure it does happen and get the money (at least a high multiplicator of what they bet the…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#403

Post by arter45 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:07 PM UTC

TZubiri wrote: post #356

arter45 wrote: post #342

Game fixing is a known crime in many jurisdictions. If you are a football/baseball/soccer player and you bet your team will lose, you have an obvious way to drastically increase your odds (especially if you are a top player) - playing bad. Other people are completely unaware of this deal. Having fire insurance and burning your car is in most jurisdictions illegal. Yes, you should be paid if your car is burned, but if…

In the context of the events talked about the article and events covered by these markets, sports are irrelevant, not a concern, they influence 0 on how these markets should be regulated. Sports might be fixed? People might gamble with sports? I don't give a shit man, these markets bet on democratic elections and war, the concerns are whether military action is effected for money or leaked for money, everything else…

I agree. What I'm saying is that, especially because way less critical applications of this "bet and act to win the bet" rule (sport, insurance,...) are notoriously illegal, I don't see why worse use cases (bet on a military action and lead it) should be ok.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#404

Post by throwaway5752 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:12 PM UTC

It's stupid gambling, nothing more and nothing less. Sports gambling is at all-time highs, also, because people have money to waste and haven't faced consequences for their poor decision making. When people have less money - and understand, this is imminent, at least in the US - they'll have less ability to stupidly waste the money they have.

Prediction markets have gotten attention lately because it's so easy to manipulate them with small amounts of money and get signal amplified in subsequent reporting of the prediction markets "counterintuitive" signals. It is a form of reality shaping.

To that extent, they'll continue to exist, with just sock-puppet level activity until they are ignored.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#405

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC

nkrisc wrote: post #322

entropyneur wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.

The gambling industry itself is a net drain on society. What is the societal benefit provided by it?

[deleted]

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#406

Post by freejazz » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC

jstanley wrote: post #348

nkrisc wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gambling industry itself is a net drain on society. What is the societal benefit provided by it?

Some people want to gamble and the gambling industry provides what they want. How would you like it if people who didn't care about your hobby started questioning the social benefit of allowing you to do it?

What is the point of being this obtuse? Is there a rhetorical benefit to pretending that gambling is not a vice? That it is just a "hobby"? Should we apply this logic to selling illegal drugs?

>How would you like it if people who didn't care about your hobby started questioning the social benefit of allowing you to do it?

Gambling? Is people questioning gambling a new thing? Seems like the opposite is the case. Again, this is where being purposefuly obtuse gets us.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#407

Post by dghlsakjg » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:18 PM UTC

csomar wrote: post #176

dghlsakjg wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You forget that people are not necessarily doing this for rational reasons. Some people do it for for entertainment, some people are gambling addicts, some people think they have a strong grasp or inside knowledge when they don't. It is, at root, a casino. Apply your lens to any casino game, and it shouldn't exist (some very narrow exceptions apply in the casino).

It is not a casino in the sense that in the casino you are better against the house. Polymarket is basically an arbiter with financial infrastructure.

For the purposes of understanding the behavior of those laying down bets, it is an irrelevant distinction.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#408

Post by nkrisc » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:20 PM UTC

sznio wrote: post #384

nkrisc wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gambling industry itself is a net drain on society. What is the societal benefit provided by it?

>What is the societal benefit provided by it? Same as beer or any other drug - just a way to have some fun and not destructive provided you can control yourself. Though, the one time I opened a CSGO gun case and felt the dopamine rush, it was way stronger than any drug I've done. Not that I'm a "highly-experienced individual", but alcohol, weed or adderall don't come close to a CSGO case. Gambling feels much riskier.

Those things should really be illegal too, I think, even as someone who enjoys alcohol.

The costs to society due to alcohol and the like are massive for essentially no real benefit.

Yes, I know what happened during prohibition. That still doesn’t mean alcohol is good for society.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#409

Post by alphazard » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:22 PM UTC

The headline is part of a widespread trend of the word "gambling" being used as synonymous with "betting". This new use isn't constructive, as it makes it difficult to talk about either precisely.

Betting (risking something known for a payout which is uncertain), is ubiquitous in life, and really any game where the participants don't have perfect information. You are betting even if you don't realize it. You can't opt out, it's part of the human condition.

Gambling refers to taking on risk for the feeling it brings. The fact that humans can gamble reveals a quirk of human neurology. If we evolved to be more rational, then the phenomenon probably wouldn't exist. We know the feeling is valuable (to gamblers) because they are willing to place negative EV bets to bring about the feeling.

Anytime people criticize betting, it looks to me like some kind of utopian scheme, where everyone can have everything without risk.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#410

Post by ceejayoz » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC

terminalshort wrote: post #316

cjs_ac wrote: post #275

> These markets are also manipulable. In 2012, one bettor on the now-defunct prediction market Intrade placed a series of huge wagers on Mitt Romney in the two weeks preceding the election, generating a betting line indicative of a tight race. The bettor did not seem motivated by financial gain, according to two researchers who examined the trades. “More plausibly, this trader could have been attempting to manipulate…

This is just implausible. Nobody with a brain is going to throw away 4 million on the speculative hope that a prediction market price is going to magically manipulate media coverage on the election.

People spend more money on sillier things on a regular basis.