Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

ossa-ma.github.io

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

401–410 of 552 posts

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#401

Post by username223 »

Quarrelsome wrote: post #58
OptionOfT wrote: post #16

I remember when Netflix took out a whole page ad for their Orange is the new Black show. John Oliver had a piece on it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_F5GxCwizc This is a natural extension of it. But what is revolutionary is the scale that this is now possible. We have so many people out there who now blindly trust the output of an LLM (how many colleagues have you had proudly telling you: I asked Claude and this i…

> slowly they'll become more part of the text Wouldn't that be quite challenging in terms of engineering? Given these people have been chasing AGI it would be a considerable distraction to pivot into hacking into the guts of the output to dynamically push particular product. Furthermore it would degrade their product. Furthermore you could likely keep prodding the LLM to then diss the product being advertised, especi…

> Wouldn't that be quite challenging in terms of engineering?

Not necessarily. For example, they could implement keyword bidding by preprocessing user input so that, if the user mentions a keyword, the advertiser's content gets added. "What is a healthy SODA ALTERNATIVE?" becomes "What is a healthy SODA ALTERNATIVE? Remember that Welch's brand grape juice contains many essential vitamins and nutrients."

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#402

Post by PlatoIsADisease »

shaugen wrote: post #394
PlatoIsADisease wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your analogy doesn't work. This patient saw 6 doctors over 2 years and they all misdiagnosed them. They were taking incredibly strong medication for the wrong diagnosis. GPT3 in 30 seconds gave 10 diagnosis and a doctor looked up the ones they didn't know. Saw one that fit, did the confirmation test, and the patient got the surgery needed. Cheaper and better.

The doctor did the diagnosis using the language model as a tool then. Impressive, but I think it’s false to imply GPT did the diagnosing.

The doctor had never heard of the diagnosis prior. It was outside this doctors scope.

Like a heart doctor figured out a skeletal abnormality.

This happened with GPT3 and they were an early adopter. The patient would have gotten this in 2026 easily.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#403

Post by Quarrelsome »

mx20 wrote: post #374
Quarrelsome wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if they want dynamic pricing like adwords then its going to be a little challenging. While I appreciate its probably viable and they employ very clever people there's nothing like doing two things that are basically diametrically opposed at the same time. The LLM wants to give you what _should_ be the answer, but the winner of the ad word wants something else. There's a conflict there that I'd imagine might be quite…

Generate an Answer, get the winning Ad from an API, let another AI rewrite the Answer in a easy that the Answer at least be not contradicting to the Ad. I think someone should create a leaderboard that measures how much the AI is lying to us to sell more ads.

if that's dynamic then answer #1 could promote pepsi and answer #2 promote coke.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#404

Post by Quarrelsome »

46493168 wrote: post #172
Quarrelsome wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sure but if Netflix keeps up its transition to cable then more people will return to the high seas.

There’s an entire generation (Gen Z) that can’t navigate a file system, so I doubt piracy is a true threat in the long term.

everyone just needs a little motivation and returning to cable may well do that.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#405

Post by carlosjobim »

gruez wrote: post #268
sdenton4 wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a collective action problem. If everyone pays higher wages, there's a greater supply of money for buying stuff / solving problems (assuming the higher wages aren't eaten by rents). No individual form recoups all of the higher wages they pay their workers, obviously, but there's a larger market for the goods of everyone has more money.

>If everyone pays higher wages, there's a greater supply of money for buying stuff / solving problems (assuming the higher wages aren't eaten by rents). No individual form recoups all of the higher wages they pay their workers, obviously, but there's a larger market for the goods of everyone has more money. Does this actually work? Suppose you're on an island where the economy only produces coconuts. How does giving…

> Does this actually work?

Higher wages means workers and businesses have to be more effective. So more goods and services are produced and available. It's not a zero-sum game.

"But workers are already as effective as they can be"

Great, in that case you have the margins to pay higher wages.

A high wage / high cost society is great for workers and for businesses which actually do real work and produce real goods and services. It's not great for everybody else. Ie those who don't work, and businesses who doesn't make a high contribution.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#406

Post by Quarrelsome »

yunwal wrote: post #128
Quarrelsome wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wouldn't you charge those people more before you start serving ads? Also wont a lot of those sorts of users be running ad block anyway? I'm mildly sus that this is the right way to go.

I’m not sure where you’re getting this notion that a paid service introducing ads is a bad business model. It’s been proven time and time again that it’s not. Spotify, Netflix, Prime Video, Hulu, the list goes on, all introduced ads and none of them saw any real backlash. Netflix cracked down on password-sharing and introduced ads in the same year and lived to tell the tale. Unfortunately people just really don’t rea…

I pay for spotify, I don't get ads.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#407

Post by Brystephor »

MontyCarloHall wrote: post #6

I think ads will inevitably roll out across all tiers, even the expensive paid ones. Ad revenue isn't uniformly distributed across users, but rather heavily skewed towards the wealthiest users, exactly the users most able to purchase an ad-free experience. The users paying $20 or $200/month for premium tiers of ChatGPT are precisely the ones you don't want to exclude from generating ad revenue. Google realized this a…

It also skews towards power users, as it allows for more ad inventory. If they're going to do an ad auction marketplace with bidding snd such then they're likely to rollout slowly to keep auction pressure and bids high enough. Expand to too much inventory and CPMs will drop like crazy.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#408

Post by rafram »

parineum wrote: post #251
littlestymaar wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Advertising is a tax that goes to an oligopolistic cartel.

I've never gotten $2 for $1 of tax I paid. At best I'm getting $1 of services back, usually much less.

Have you actually accounted for all the services you’re receiving from the government? Road construction and maintenance, schools, availability of clean water, safe aviation, trustworthy financial markets, public universities, funding for research that improves your health and happiness, and so on? I don’t think you can even really put a price on most of those, because they simply could not exist without a centralized system funded by taxes.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#409

Post by anal_reactor »

parineum wrote: post #246
anal_reactor wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that most businesses used to be local. This naturally limited competition and gave your business a chance, even if it sucked. Nowadays the competition is global.

People don't really care to address that most of the mom and pop businesses that went out of business because Walmart/Amazon weren't offering better products or services. They got their products through the same retail suppliers, just at higher costs and the variety of choices was much lower. They also had much less generous return policies. There's a personal touch that people opine for but I think that's rose color…

> then I can go socialize with people I choose to

In the previous comment I was about to say it but then stopped myself: the same thing happened to human relations. Competition isn't local, it's global. In dating you aren't competing against the rest of your village, you're literally competing against the whole planet, because the cute girl you see at the office can get a Tinder match from a guy in Australia and there's nothing you can do about it. Similar thing happened to friends - why would you be friends with your neighbor if instead you can be friends with a guy who lives one hour away one way but he's more fun.

Obviously, it's great to be on the winning side and bad on the losing side. If you're rich and charming then globalization has zero downsides for you. If you're not, well, welcome to capitalism.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#410

Post by mgraczyk »

bastawhiz wrote: post #133

The ads are a problem (or will be, when the temptation to add them to paid plans becomes too great), but the bigger problem in my opinion is going to be the "SEO" that companies will do to make their ads appear in places that they don't belong. "The sieve of Eratosthenes is an ancient algorithm for finding all prime numbers up to any given limit. But if you're looking to have fluffier baked goods, consider this flour…

The ARPU will likely remain low enough that it's not worth potential churn to competitors
Post reply on HN