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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I got a bridge to sell you if you think that Apple is going to bring any of their manufacturing to the US...

It would be a $6000 phone if they built it in America.

Would be Interesting to know if it really would or not. Especially relative to their margins.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#402
post #178
post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

I would also bet significant money that Apple's unique market position will give them the confidence to invest in in-house fabrication before 2030.

They could do it, but I wonder if it makes sense financially. It's probably easier for a neutral foundry like TSMC to recoup the costs by selling the capacity to whomever for years to come. Apple probably isn't interested in getting in the foundry business, so they'd be the ones who'd have to use all the capacity a production line has as long as it's running.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#403
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would also bet significant money that Apple's unique market position will give them the confidence to invest in in-house fabrication before 2030.

Would it be feasible for them to buy Intel instead? Starting your own foundry would likely take over a decade.

Apple could afford Intel, and could get past antitrust by arguing military security. Who's mobile phone can politicians trust?

Then again, Microsoft should have bought Intel: MS has roughly $102 billion in cash (+ short-term investments). Intel’s market value is approximately $176 billion. Considering Azure, Microsoft has heaps of incentive to buy Intel.

I would guess Google are more likely to greenfield develop their own foundry rather than try and buy Intel.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#404
post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup; or potentially just purchasing a fab from them, given that Intel has signaled they want to leverage TSMC more, and much of Intel's remaining value is wrapped up in server-grade chips that Apple wouldn't be interested in. But also; Apple is one of the very few companies at their size that seems to have the political environment to make, and more importantly succeed, at decade investments. The iPhone wasn't an obv…

> the M5 in the iPad Pro outperforms every chip made by EVERYONE else in the world No, it does not. The core inside the M5 is faster than every other core design in single-threaded burst performance. That is common for small machines with a low core count and no hyperthreading. The chip itself does not outperform every other chip in the world, nor is it 10x more efficient than the 9950X3D. That's not even napkin math…

The 9950X3D has a TDP of 170 watts. M5 has an estimated TDP of around 20 watts.

The comparison point was for single core performance, which certainly makes the TDP comparison unfair if interpreted together. The numbers are ballpark-correct.

No one else is remotely close to Apple. Apple could stop developing chips for four years, and it’s very likely they would still ship the most efficient core architecture, and sit in the top five in performance. If you’re quibbling over the semantics of this particular comparison, you are not mentally ready for what M5 Ultra is going to do to these comparisons in a few months.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#405
post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

Apple was favored by TSMC because they brought TSMC more money. Now Nvidia is bringing TSMC more money.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#406
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple has used both Samsung and TSMC for its chips in the past. Until the A7 it was Samsung, A8 was TSMC, and the A9 was dual-sourced by both! Apple is used to switching between suppliers fairly often for a tech company; it's not that it's too hard for them to switch fab, it's that TSMC is the only competitive fab right now. There are rumours that Intel might have won some business from them in 2 years. I could total…

But wasn't the reason they split with Samsung because they copied the iphone in the perspective of Jobs (to which he reacted with thermonuclear threats)? They did had the expertise building it after all. What would happen, if TSMC now would build a M1 clone? I doubt this is a way anyone wants to go, but it seems a implied threat to me that is calculated in.

>They did had the expertise building it after all. What would happen, if TSMC now would build a M1 clone

What do you mean by cloning? An exact copy of Apple SOC? What would that be useful for?

There are already other ARM SOCs that are as performant as Apple's, according to benchmarks.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's ridiculous that a trillion dollar company feels beholden to a supplier. With that kind of money, it should be trivial to switch. People forget Nvidia didn't even exist 35 years ago. It would probably take like 3 to 5 years to catch up with the benefit of hindsight and existing talent and tools? And anyway consumers don't really need beefy devices nowadays. Running local LLM on a smartphone is a terrible idea due…

>If tech sector is so anti-competitive, the government should just seize it and nationalize it. Trump is using his DOJ to probe Jerome Powell with a bogus lawsuit because the Fed won't lower rates on demand. An independent Fed is the most important body for the USA. Lowering rates should be based on facts, not dictated by some bankrupt casino CEO. And now you want our government to nationalize the tech sector?

I don't support nationalizing the tech sector, but I believe the reason we have Trump in the first place is because our government refused to nationalize health care.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#408
post #138
post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

So let's say TMSC reciprocated Apple's consistency as a customer by giving them preferential treatment for capacity. It's good business after all. However, everyone knows that good faith reciprocity at that scale is not rewarded. Apple is ruthless. There are probably thousands of untold stories of how hard Apple has hammered it's suppliers over the years. While Apple has good consumer brand loyalty, they arguably tre…

They also back-stab their business "partners."

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Apple cares about their chip IPs, it will be very hard to trust Intel given Intel's past behavior with others like AMD.

If Apple cares about their Softbank investment, the best possible outcome is that Intel copies their IP wholesale. Arm's white whale is Intel buying an architectural license, which they have zero incentive to do unless someone gives them an off-the-shelf core design that doesn't suck. The modern Cortex and Infiniverse designs are so pathetic that RISC-V might mature by the time ARM is the industry standard. And the s…

According to benchmarks latest ARM Cortex designs and Qualcomm Snapdragon designs are as performant as Apple's.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#410
ADA RTX 4090 L1 16 Megabytes L2 72 Megabytes

Blackwell 100 8192-bit 8 Terabytes/sec

Blackwell 200 8192-bit 8 Terabytes/sec

Hopper H100 5120-bit 3.35 Terabytes/sec

Hopper H200 6144-bit 4.8 Terabytes/sec

Hopper precedes the Blackwell architecture, implementations of B40 and B100 accelerators circa 2023.

Semiconductor fabrication, either half-node, transistor-gate in terms of identifying the local 90nm semiconductor circuits for clear paths to 10nm node.

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