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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

401–410 of 605 posts

Re: Is it a bubble?

#401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is to be f*cking honest

"Fucking honest" how? If I'm being fucking honest, then this generation of LLMs might already beat most humans on raw intelligence, AI progress shows no signs of stopping, and "it's not actually thinking" is just another "AI effect" cope that humans come up with to feel more important and more exceptional. Or is this not the "fucking honesty" you want?

The more you talk, the more you're proving their point.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"My technosolutionist bubble says it's not a bubble, trust me bro"

„Just XYZ more billion, bro, and then we’re gonna have AGI! For real bro, pleaseeee!“

Why can't you just prompt a way to AGI without spending all that money?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#403

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

One upon a time in SF i was told that human-driven cars would be illegal, or too expensive to insure, by the end of the decade. That was last decade. The modern tech economy is all about bubbles biult and sustained by hype people. Vertical farming. Pot replacing alcohol. Blockchains replacing lawyers. The metaverse replacing everything. Sure, we are in an AI bubble but we aslo ride atop a dozen others.

AI data centers in space? In five years? Really? No fiber connections? Does any sane person actually believe this? No. But if that is what keeps the billions flowing upwards then who am I to judge.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#404

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

It's difficult to know what people really believe, especially after only a few minutes of discussion, but I would say most people I talk to don't believe AGI is even possible. And they probably think their life won't be changed much by LLMs, AI, etc.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#406
post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's difficult to know what people really believe, especially after only a few minutes of discussion, but I would say most people I talk to don't believe AGI is even possible. And they probably think their life won't be changed much by LLMs, AI, etc.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

> they are better at empathy

Are you serious or sarcastic? Do you really consider this empty type of sycophancy as empathy?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#407
post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's difficult to know what people really believe, especially after only a few minutes of discussion, but I would say most people I talk to don't believe AGI is even possible. And they probably think their life won't be changed much by LLMs, AI, etc.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

exist in realtime. they don't, we do.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#408

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

One upon a time in SF i was told that human-driven cars would be illegal, or too expensive to insure, by the end of the decade. That was last decade. The modern tech economy is all about bubbles biult and sustained by hype people. Vertical farming. Pot replacing alcohol. Blockchains replacing lawyers. The metaverse replacing everything. Sure, we are in an AI bubble but we aslo ride atop a dozen others. AI data center…

Not just in SF. "Journalists" love to pick up these enflated futuristic projections and run with 'em, since they sound so cozy and generate clicks. I still remember the "Google Car" craze from the early 2010er years. And if you tell people who read and believe this futuristic nonesense that it is enflated, you get pushback, because, yeah, why should a single person know better then a incentivized journalist...

Re: Is it a bubble?

#409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the alternative? Is there literally any AI tech more promising and disruptive than LLMs? Or should we buy into that "it's not ackhtually AI" meme?

The alternative is to be f*cking honest

This contribution adds nothing to the conversation except gratuitous venom.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#410
post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also equating artificial intelligence with LLMs. I get that laymen and the media do it, but imo this looks really bad for an investor.

> but imo this looks really bad for an investor. Why? Would you expect an investor to understand what they're investing in?

Investor, yes. Mark, no.
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