401–410 of 428 posts
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They're "massively profitable" because they're laying off large portions of a major cost center - labor - and backloading uncoming data center construction costs. As those come due, and labor needs rise again, that profit disappears.
yes, these companies have a track record of disappearing profits :)
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I'm not trying to be annoying, but surely if you'd justify spending $200/developer/month, you could afford $250/month... The reason I wonder about that is because that also seems to be the dynamic with all these deals and valuations. Surely if OpenAI would pay $30 billion on data centers, they could pay $40 billion, right? I'm not exactly sure where the price escalations actually top out.
No? That's a 25% expense increase. You just ate the margins on my product/service, and then some.
>> figure out how to innovate on the financial model Does it feel rather Orwellian that the original geeks now seem to be the same people who - forget about claiming technological innovation of as their own - completely discount it and apparently the important thing is now the creativity in funding an enterprise? We don't hear about the breakthroughs from the technologists, but the funding announcements from th inves…
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So many such profitable companies are the best possible evidence for the need for drastic antitrust intervention. The lack of competition and regulation is leading to a massive drain on every other sector.
This bubble is caused by excess competition. There are 4 large companies who believe that a large new market is being created so each is investing large amounts without any evidence that there will be a single winner that dominates the future market. None of these companies has anything remotely resembling a monopoly except for Amazon in online retail.
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> as someone with no business experience, how they aren’t just pouring all of that money into enhancing their production capacity. That’s very clearly their bottleneck here. They know this madness can't go on forever. The last thing they need is to be left with billions of dollars of unused capacity when the bottom falls out of this very stupid bubble.
> They know this madness can't go on forever. If they thought that, would they invest massively in the companies that own all these GPUs? They would not. They would invest in anything ELSE they could think of.
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It's incredible how Tesla used to lose a few hundred million a year and analysis shows would freak out claiming they'd never be profitable. Now Rivian can lose 5 billion a year and I don't hear anything about it, and OpenAI can lose 11 billion in a quarter and Microsoft still backs them. I do think this is going to be a deeply profitable industry, but this feels a little like the WeWork CEO flying couches to offices…
Very few industries are “deeply profitable” absent the illegal abuse of monopoly power
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Altman was screwing / raping his sister so not quite sure who is worse.
I take it back, what the actual f*ck.
Don't believe everything you read on the Internet.
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As much ChatGPT says I’m basically a genius for asking it a good Vegan cake recipes, I don’t think that is providing it any data it doesn’t already have that makes it anyway better. Also at this point the massive increases in data and computing power seem to bring ever decreasing improvements (and sometimes just decline), so it seems we are simply hitting a limit this kind of architecture can achieve no matter what y…
ChatGPT chat logs contain massive amount of data teased out of people’s brains. But much of it is lore, biases, misconceptions, memes. There are nuggets of gold in there but it’s not at all clear if there’s a good way to extract them, and until then chat logs will make things worse, not better. I’m thinking they eventually figure out who is the source of good data for a given domain, maybe. Even if that is solved, mo…
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Apple new M5 can run models over 10B parametres and if they give their new Studio next year enough juice, it can run maybe 30B local model. How long is it that you can run a full GPT-5 on your laptop or homeserver with few grands worth of hardware? What is going to happen to all these GPU farms, since as I understood they are fairly useless for anything else?
Quantized, a top-end Mac can run models up to about 200B (with 128GiB of unified RAM). They'll run a little slow but they're usable. This is a pricey machine though. But 5-10 years from now I can imagine a mid-range machine running 200-400B models at a usable speed.