Harnessing America's heat pump moment • Hacker News Board

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#401

Post by SoftTalker » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:35 PM UTC

danans wrote: post #268

kalleboo wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For comparison, I just bought a house here in Japan. Installed 6 minisplit heat pumps across various rooms in the house. All together it cost me 750,000 yen ($5,000) for the hardware and 90,000 yen ($600) for the install.

Japan is where early air-source heat pumps first achieved market success, so it's unsurprising that they are much cheaper to install there, because of the relatively large number of installer options. In the US, they are struggling to break out of the eco-luxury product niche (where they have been stuck for a long time).

Which is weird because they are quite ugly, both inside and outside.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#402

Post by Nifty3929 » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:36 PM UTC

We live in a temperate climate and installed a heat pump / mini-split system to replace our central AC and furnace and get rid of all the ductwork.

It's awesome in many respects and I don't regret it, but it's also MUCH more expensive in the winter vs our gas furnace. Electricity is just so much more expensive than the gas equivalent for heating. Overall this is costing us a lot more money per year.

But the upside is that it maintains the temperature in each room much more effectively, and it's a LOT quieter, both inside from the air handlers and outside from the ... loud outside fan thing (compressor?).

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#403

Post by whateveracct » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:38 PM UTC

throw0101c wrote: post #190

whateveracct wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What percentage of the (US) population gets temperatures like that? That's generally mostly IECC Zone 7 (though cold snaps in Zone 6) can happen: A lot? e.g. Chicago gets it every year

>>> Mine struggles if it gets below 30, and might as well not exist below 10. They're not great at low temps. >> > What percentage of the (US) population gets temperatures like that? That's generally mostly IECC Zone 7 (though cold snaps in Zone 6) can happen: > A lot? e.g. Chicago gets it every year [citation needed] Per historical weather data: https://ashrae-meteo.info/v2.0/index.php?lat=41.960&lng=-87.... It is w…

I think the comment was saying below 30F and below 10F. Much warmer than you're saying.

Also..

> It is warmer than -16C/3F at Chicago (O'Hare) for 99% of the time (i.e., except for 4 days a year), and warmer than -18.7C/-2F for 99.6% of the time (2 days).

If my heat doesn't work for those days, I'm kind of boned. Four days per year without a working heat pump? That's a mess.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#404

Post by SoftTalker » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:39 PM UTC

reppap wrote: post #300

mattmaroon wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solar in northernly climates is still not practical. (I’m Canada adjacent.)

You can break even on solar panels in 10-15 years in Sweden where I live and we're pretty damn northerly.

In the US, most people don't live in one house that long.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#405

Post by steveBK123 » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:40 PM UTC

orwin wrote: post #397

steveBK123 wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In US the labor & markup is a huge component. I got HVAC drop-in replacement quotes ranging from $7k to $14k for what upon some quick research was about $3k in hardware.

Can you do the installation yourself? In my country i have to make a HVAC technician come to check the installation and sign a paper before i can start mine (200€ for a 15 minutes job, but it's less than the 2-4k it would cost to not do it myself) [edit] i say that because my hardware is 2.5k euros, so ~3k¯dollars, so we probably have the same high end stuff, and i guarantee you it's not hard to install, and it can b…

Central air system with indoor blower & outdoor condenser generally don't come with pre-charged lines so self-install without certification isn't really an option in US.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#406

Post by SoftTalker » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:41 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #333

mikepurvis wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I looked into the precharged DIY option and the lengths just didn’t work out for what I needed in my space. I ended up paying a licensed installer C$12k to put in a three head system (two conventional, one ducted), and then a separate guy $5k to do the ducting for the bedroom level. It would have been nice to do it as one, but the HVAC firm didn’t want to get their hands dirty with my wacky ducting plan, and the duct…

The systems where you need to get a epa license are cheaper. The license is appearently easy to get.

The license is a trivial obstacle in the US. Study for an hour or two and take an unproctored online exam.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#407

Post by caminante » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:42 PM UTC

Aspos wrote: post #211

Animats wrote: post #192

Everybody seems to agree that installation costs way too much. There's a few parts to this. Everything has to be carefully sized - power, pipe sizes, unit locations. You need to put a house's thermal profile (how much heat loss, how much air leak, how much thermal mass) along with the regional thermal profile into an engineering calculation which computes what you need. Thermographic inspections are a thing.[1] Usual…

I would argue that accurate sizing is not that important as labor constitutes the bulk of the cost. My total bill was about $20K and going for 30% less capacity would net about $19K so its easier just to go for the maximum. Calling in an IR imaging drone would certainly cost more than the potential savings from accurate sizing. Unlike gas furnaces which basically can only do ON or OFF, heat pumps can regulate the hea…

Reducing labor costs is hard.

For commercial applications, modular/off-site builds are a way to reduce labor costs. Yet, homes design are so fragmented that it's hard to build something plug-n-play.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#408

Post by SoftTalker » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:43 PM UTC

neltnerb wrote: post #234

I've got to throw out an obvious explanation. A third of the country rents. Renters pay the utility bills. Landlords pay for appliance upgrades. Why would the landlord put any effort into upgrading appliances when the cost of not upgrading them is borne by the renters? I've never rented at a place where they didn't want to fix broken equipment with the cheapest possible replacement. And no renter would ever consider…

That doesn't square with the fact that new rentals are built with granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances. Tenants do shop around on the basis of amenities.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#409

Post by danans » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:47 PM UTC

SoftTalker wrote: post #401

danans wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan is where early air-source heat pumps first achieved market success, so it's unsurprising that they are much cheaper to install there, because of the relatively large number of installer options. In the US, they are struggling to break out of the eco-luxury product niche (where they have been stuck for a long time).

Which is weird because they are quite ugly, both inside and outside.

Compared to a conventional A/C compressor (which they replace), heat pump compressors are much smaller, quieter, and less ugly.

As for the indoor units, they can either be the "ugly" ones (the indoor head units visible on the wall), recessed "cassettes", or they can use traditional A/C air handlers in a utility room to distribute conditioned air via existing duct-runs and registers.

There are also companies like Quilt that are making heat pump systems with much more attractive indoor wall units.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#410

Post by SoftTalker » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:50 PM UTC

thelastgallon wrote: post #275

relaxing wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look up private equity buying up HVAC firms. It is in fact a get rich scheme.

I don't know why you're being downvoted (it shows as slightly greyed out). This is true. I had a roommate who is a HVAC salesman. Very smooth talked. The 'HVAC' company offers free HVAC maintenance. They techs go in, do some stuff and they point out some problems. Sales guy goes in, smooth talks his way to 5K - 70K bill to most people. Of course, when something goes out and people don't have a choice (like in peak su…

The good local contractors have all the work they can handle on commercial accounts. Residential is an annoyance. That leaves the very small fish (if you can find them) and the PE-owned scam companies.