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U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

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Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#401

Post by lovich »

jshen wrote: post #392
lovich wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He’s not going to if he’s already done this “actually you’re wrong but I won’t tell you why” comment in defense of this admin multiple times. God at least back in the day partisan hacks tried to hide it a little bit

I'm as anti-trump as anyone. He's doing tremendous harm to our economy and our society. Your anger is making you see things that aren't there. All I did was question the assumption that our economic problems are ENTIRELY the result of bad policy. Some how you jumped to some very wrong conclusions based on that tiny shred of information which wasn't even about Trump.

Nah man, I have eyes.

You coyly suggested that there were other contributors at play to multiple people who suggested what bad policies are causing the economic issues and then didn’t provide them until called out.

You’re running partisan defense when you act that way

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#402

Post by nradov »

CursedSilicon wrote: post #307
nradov wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? There is no practical limit to human innovation and productivity growth.

As the saying goes. You can't have infinite growth on a finite planet

Come on, don't be pedantic. We are so far from hitting any limits on growth imposed by a finite planet as to be effectively unlimited.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#403

Post by chasd00 »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #280
jeffbee wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The need of downward revisions is 100% due to falling and selective response rate to the early survey.

That excuse works one time. After that, you fix incentives and hire competent data gatherers.

I agree, if you can't publish a number that's pretty accurate then you shouldn't publish anything. That's why i wasn't broken hearted when Trump fired that BLS person. If you can't even get close then someone needs to be found that can or at least has the balls to say "idk what the number is, we're not publishing without good data".

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#404

Post by bluGill »

VoidWarranty wrote: post #110
cs702 wrote: post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

So uh, I'm the first person in my family to break the cycle of poverty. I have nobody I trust to follow advise with money. I do all the 'standard' boring investment strategies (401, index funds, roth, etc). I don't bother with crypto (scams). What does one do if stagflation is coming? Float more cash? Buy real estate?

That depends - if you are good at timing the market you would sell your stocks at the peak, put it into cash for a year or two and then buy long term low risk, high interest rates bonds that cannot be called... Too bad I don't know anyone who can time the market. (I'm not confident that stocks will start falling before the bond rate peaks, even though that is my guess).

My guess is that real estate will not do well in general. However there are always exceptions, but I don't know if the exception is in Dallas Texas (random big city), or Chaseley North Dakota (random place not even a town, cannot support even one store)

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#405

Post by RC_ITR »

riazrizvi wrote: post #391
RC_ITR wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, that's personal income and can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PINCOME

I only see a stat that reports the same number for full employment vs one person who fired them all and took their incomes. Is there a way to disaggregate to get some proxy for employment like we are talking about?

Yes, the BLS employment survey.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#406

Post by franktankbank »

thisisit wrote: post #153
franktankbank wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only people who care about that are the economists. You can also take a one time hit by getting back to the basics and forget the goddamn metrics.

You do know economic data is not used only by "economists", right? Given that you seem to dislike the word "economic" data, focus only on the data part. Tell us how politicians/policy makers run the country without data? How do they know rates have to be increased/decreased if they don't have such numbers? Through wishful and magical thinking about focusing on the basics?

My point is that it should be more granular. I only ever hear it described in one of three things in tension with each other: markets, jobs, inflation. Do you think you can just watch those three things and guide a country/world into a prosperous one or could there be pitfalls?

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#407

Post by dgfitz »

kstrauser wrote: post #372
k2enemy wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we are heading into a period of high inflation and interest rates, holding debt now is great. High unexpected inflation means that the dollars that you use to pay off the debt are worth less, and you are locked in to a low interest rate.

The ideal circumstance would be to take out a loan you can’t really afford immediately before a round of hyperinflation. Bad time to have $100K in a savings account. Great time to owe that bank $2M.

I currently am this person.

What exactly would one do with a 2 million dollar loan? Please don’t say real estate.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#408

Post by franktankbank »

rsynnott wrote: post #160
franktankbank wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only people who care about that are the economists. You can also take a one time hit by getting back to the basics and forget the goddamn metrics.

... I mean, I can assure you it wasn't just the economists unhappy about stagflation.

I'm saying its definitional and laggy.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#409

Post by staticman2 »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #383
staticman2 wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think that sentence is wrong? Hint: What time period do you think he's talking about?

He's talking about a time period when the stock market was in the doldrums and inflation was high. Right now inflation is considered high (even though it isn't really, historically) and the stock market is berserk. And why wouldn't the stock market be considered a valid investment in the presence of inflation? Where else are you supposed to park your cash if you want to outperform TIPS? Remember that in the 1970s the…

You acknowledge inflation isn't high by historical standards yet went on to argue he's wrong because stocks went up when inflation wasn't high by historical standards?

The last time we had sudden unexpected high inflation was 2022 and stocks crashed did they not?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA

I have no opinion on whether the article is relevant I was only responding to the sentence you quoted which didn't seem obviously incorrect.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#410

Post by chasd00 »

kstrauser wrote: post #372
k2enemy wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we are heading into a period of high inflation and interest rates, holding debt now is great. High unexpected inflation means that the dollars that you use to pay off the debt are worth less, and you are locked in to a low interest rate.

The ideal circumstance would be to take out a loan you can’t really afford immediately before a round of hyperinflation. Bad time to have $100K in a savings account. Great time to owe that bank $2M.

you're making an assumption that your income is going to keep pace with inflation to make it easier to pay off the debt. It very well may not.

/I haven't got a base pay increase in 4 years

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