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Guess I'm a rationalist now

scottaaronson.blog

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Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#401

The article made me think deeper about what rubs me the wrong way about the whole movement I think there is some inherent tension btwn being "rational" about things and trying to reason about things from first principle.. And the general absolutist tone of the community. The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? They don't really ever show a sense of "hey, I've got a thought, maybe I haven't considere…

They remind me of the "Effective Altruism" crowd who get completely wound up in these hypothetical logical thought exercises and end up coming to insane conclusions that they feel trapped in because they got there using pure logic. Not realizing that their initial conditions were highly artificial so any conclusion they reach is only of academic value. There is a term for this. "Getting stuck up your own butt." It wo…

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Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#402

The article made me think deeper about what rubs me the wrong way about the whole movement I think there is some inherent tension btwn being "rational" about things and trying to reason about things from first principle.. And the general absolutist tone of the community. The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? They don't really ever show a sense of "hey, I've got a thought, maybe I haven't considere…

> tension btwn being "rational" about things and trying to reason about things from first principle.

Perhaps on a meta level. If you already have high confidence in something, reasoning it out again may be a waste of time. But of course the rational answer to a problem comes from reasoning about it; and of course chains of reasoning can be traced back to first principles.

> And the general absolutist tone of the community. The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? They don't really ever show a sense of "hey, I've got a thought, maybe I haven't considered all angles to it, maybe I'm wrong - but here it is". The type of people that would be embarrassed to not have an opinion on a topic or say "I don't know"

Doing rationalism properly is hard, which is the main reason that the concept "rationalism" exists and is invoked in the first place.

Respected writers in the community, such as Scott Alexander, are in my experience the complete opposite of "full of themselves". They often demonstrate shocking underconfidence relative to what they appear to know, and counsel the same in others (e.g. https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/08/12/stop-adding-zeroes/ ). It's also, at least in principle, a rationalist norm to mark the "epistemic status" of your think pieces.

Not knowing the answer isn't a reason to shut up about a topic. It's a reason to state your uncertainty; but it's still entirely appropriate to explain what you believe, why, and how probable you think your belief is to be correct.

I suspect that a lot of what's really rubbing you the wrong way has more to do with philosophy. Some people in the community seem to think that pure logic can resolve the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is%E2%80%93ought_problem. (But plenty of non-rationalists also act this way, in my experience.) Or they accept axioms that don't resonate with others, such as the linearity of moral harm (i.e.: the idea that the harm caused by unnecessary deaths is objective and quantifiable - whether in number of deaths, Years of Potential Life Lost, or whatever else - and furthermore that it's logically valid to do numerical calculations with such quantities as described at/around https://www.lesswrong.com/w/shut-up-and-multiply).

> In the Pre-AI days this was sort of tolerable, but since then.. The frothing at the mouth convinced of the end of the world.. Just shows a real lack of humility and lack of acknowledgment that maybe we don't have a full grasp of the implications of AI. Maybe it's actually going to be rather benign and more boring than expected

AI safety discourse is an entirely separate topic. Plenty of rationalists don't give a shit about MIRI and many joke about Yudkowsky at varying levels of irony.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#403

The article made me think deeper about what rubs me the wrong way about the whole movement I think there is some inherent tension btwn being "rational" about things and trying to reason about things from first principle.. And the general absolutist tone of the community. The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? They don't really ever show a sense of "hey, I've got a thought, maybe I haven't considere…

They remind me of the "Effective Altruism" crowd who get completely wound up in these hypothetical logical thought exercises and end up coming to insane conclusions that they feel trapped in because they got there using pure logic. Not realizing that their initial conditions were highly artificial so any conclusion they reach is only of academic value. There is a term for this. "Getting stuck up your own butt." It wo…

There is a great recent book by Adam Becker "More Everything Forever" that deals with the overlapping circles of "effective altruists", "rationalists", and "accelerationists". He's not very sympathetic to the movements as he sees them as mostly rationalizing what their adherents wanted to do anyway -- funding things like rockets and AI over feeding the needy because they see the former as helping more people in the future than dealing with real problems today.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#404

Probably the most useful book ever written about topics adjacent to capital-R Rationalism is "Neoreaction, A Basilisk: Essays on and Around the Alt-Right" [1], by Elizabeth Sandifer. Though the topic of the book is nominally the Alt-Right, a lot more of it is about the capital-R Rationalist communities and individuals that incubated the neoreactionary movement that is currently dominant in US politics. It's probably…

The "neoreactionary movement" is definitely not dominant

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#405

Just to confirm, this is about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationalist_community and not: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationalism right?

Along these lines I am sort of skimming articles/blogs/websites about Lightcone, LessWrong, etc, and I am still struggling with the question...what do they DO?

Hang out and talk

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#406
post #203

Logic is an awesome tool that took us from Greek philosophers to the gates on our computers. The challenge with pure rationalism is checking the first principles that the thinking comes from. Logic can lead you astray if the principles are wrong, or you miss the complexity along the way. On the missing first principles, look at Aristotle. One of the history's greatest logicians came to many false conclusions. On miss…

>provisional humility. I hope this becomes the first ever meme with some value. We need a cult... of Provisional Humility. Must. Increase. The. pH

> Must. Increase. The. pH

Those who do so would be... based?

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've always seen the breathless Singularitarian worrying about AI Alignment as a smokescreen to distract people from thinking clearly about the more pedestrian hazards of AI that isn't self-improving or superhuman, from algorithmic bias, to policy-washing, to energy costs and acceleration of wealth concentration. It also leads to so-called longtermism - discounting the benefits of solving current real problems and fo…

My feeling has been that it’s a lot of people that work on B2B SaaS that are sad they hadn’t gotten the chance to work on the Manhattan Project. Be around the smartest people in your field. Contribute something significant (but dangerous! And we need to talk about it!) to humanity. But yeah computer science in the 21st century has not turned out to be as interesting as that. Maybe just as important! But Jeff Bezos im…

"Overproduction of elites" is the expression.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#408

The article made me think deeper about what rubs me the wrong way about the whole movement I think there is some inherent tension btwn being "rational" about things and trying to reason about things from first principle.. And the general absolutist tone of the community. The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? They don't really ever show a sense of "hey, I've got a thought, maybe I haven't considere…

Calling yourself rationalists: frames everyone else as irrational.

It reminds me Kier Starmers Labour, calling themselves "the adults in the room".

Its a cheap framing trick, belying an emptiness on the people using it.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#409
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read the whole tree of responses under this comment and I could only convince myself that when people have no arguments they try to make you look bad. Most of criticisms are just "But they think they are better than us !" and the rest is "But sometimes they are wrong !" I don't know about the community and couldn't care less but their writings have brought me some almost life saving fresh air in how to think about…

Here's a theory of what's happening, both with you here in this comment section and with the rationalists in general. Humans are generally better at perceiving threats than they are at putting those threats into words. When something seems "dangerous" abstractly, they will come up with words for why---but those words don't necessarily reflect the actual threat, because the threat might be hard to describe. Neverthele…

I finally gave in and created an account because of your comment. It's beautifully put. I would only perhaps add that, to me, the neo-rationalist thing looks the most similar to things that don't work yet attract hardcore "true believers". It's a pattern repeated through the ages, perhaps most intimately for me in the seemingly endless parades of computer system redesigns: software, hardware, or both. Randomly one might pick "the new and exciting Digg", the Itanium, and the Metaverse as fairly modern examples.

There is something about a particular "narrowband" signaling approach, where a certain kind of purity is sought, with an expectation that, given enough explaining, you will finally get it, become enlightened, and convert to the ranks. A more "wideband" approach would at least admit observations like yours do exist and must be comprehensively addressed to the satisfaction of those who hold such beliefs vs to the satisfaction of those merely "stooping" to address them (again in the hopes they'll just see the light so everyone can get back to narrowband-ville).

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They remind me of the "Effective Altruism" crowd who get completely wound up in these hypothetical logical thought exercises and end up coming to insane conclusions that they feel trapped in because they got there using pure logic. Not realizing that their initial conditions were highly artificial so any conclusion they reach is only of academic value. There is a term for this. "Getting stuck up your own butt." It wo…

The overlap between the Effective Altruism community and the Rationalist community is extremely high. They’re largely the same people. Effective Altruism gained a lot of early attention on LessWrong, and the pessimistic focus on AI existential risk largely stems from an EA desire to avoid “temporal-discounting” bias. The reasoning is something like: if you accept that future people count just as much as current peopl…

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