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Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

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Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't use medicine as an example in this case. Medicine does all kinds of ill advised things because they're worse for the disease than the patient. And all kinds of things they know will kill the patient if there's opportunity to learn and improve other lives. It seems like Tesla's been pretty clear with drivers who've opted in to FSD that they're helping to test and develop a system which isn't perfect. Just o…

> "It seems like Tesla's been pretty clear with drivers who've opted in to FSD that they're helping to test and develop a system which isn't perfect." Strawman No matter how many contracts and disclaimers they get in their favor. The "Full self driving" system is causing accidents (and deaths) Turn lights, rearview cameras, safety belts, all exist and are regulated to prevent the manufacturer dumping responsibility o…

> The "Full self driving" system is causing accidents (and deaths)

Well yeah, and so is every other driver on the road. That is not the relevant metric. The real question is whether or not it is safer than the average driver. Or safer than great aunt Marge who doesn't have the best eyesight or hearing, but somehow still has a drivers license.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make." — Lord Farquaad, Shrek , https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0126029/characters/nm0001475?it...

The irony is almost palpable, invoking this quote against a system that is driving 600 million miles a quarter without the 8 deaths a human would cause over the same distance.

FSD is not able to drive in the same conditions humans are so you're comparing humans driving in challenging conditions to FSD driving in good weather on highways.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They generally can't detect stationary objects, have problems with reflections, most of them are VERY low resolution, and so on. Radar can absolutely detect a stationary object. The problem is not, "moving or not moving", it's "is the energy reflected back to the detector," as alluded to by your second qualification. So something that scatters or absorbs the transmitted energy is hard to measure with radar because…

They can detect stationary objects, yes. But there's so much clutter from things like overpasses, road signs, and other objects that confuse the radar, that for things like adaptive cruise control, stationary objects are often intentionally filtered out or assigned much lower priority. So you detect moving objects (which stand out because of doppler shift).

Well, if we're talking about radar in a moving car, it's the other vehicles moving at the same speed that appear stationary.

Non-moving vehicles are seen as approaching you at whatever speed you are moving at. Along with all the other things you mentioned.

So they all have doppler shift but the "stationary" things approaching your car at your speed actually have much higher shift than the traffic around you.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> instead he is a fraud/charlatan and... Just see him talking about things at NeuraLink. Musk wouldn't exist if it weren't for the people working for him. It's a clown that made it to the top in a very dubious way.

I see this get thrown around once in a while and I really don't get it. Isn't this true of basically every leader? Gates, Jobs, Buffet, Obama, they all wouldn't existing without their teams. Isn't that just obvious? Isn't one of the important markers of a good leader to be able to build a good team?

> I see this get thrown around once in a while and I really don't get it. Isn't this true of basically every leader? Gates, Jobs, Buffet, Obama, they all wouldn't existing without their teams. Isn't that just obvious? Isn't one of the important markers of a good leader to be able to build a good team?

The others don't claim the extremes of power and genius, based to a large extent on what their teams do. They also build good teams - look at DOGE, for example.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#405

The point I soured on Musk was when he ditched radar/lidar and tried to go with camera's alone. This made me realize he is not the genius he is made out to be but instead he is a fraud/charlatan and over the years his statements on different topics have only hardened that belief. Why the fuck would you want ai cars to be the same as humans you should want them to be many times better and radarr/lidar sonarr type tech…

You do want them to be better than humans, but vision quality is not really a major source of human accidents. Accidents are typically caused by driving technique, inattention, or a failure to accurately model the behavior of other drivers. Put another way - would giving humans superhuman vision significantly reduce the accident rate? The issue here is that the vision based system failed to even match human capabilit…

seems like vision quality might be a major source of robot accidents

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No more blind spots, no more missing objects because you were looking in one spot instead of another. No more missing dark objects at night. Of these, only dark objects at night is related to lidar vs vision. What percent of accidents is attributable to not seeing dark objects at night? Limited field of view is solved by having a bunch of cameras, that is what is orthogonal to LiDAR vs vision. I’m open to an argume…

What are you even talking about? You use some made-up idea like "superhuman vision" and then you're asserting that I haven't provided a "compelling rebuttal"? You're not engaging in good-faith conversation here. If you want to understand the clear, obvious benefits of LIDAR over cameras, it's a Google search away. And it's not just about at night -- it's about weather, it's about greater accuracy, especially at great…

Maybe I need to explain better.

Obviously LiDAR improves the maximum achievable capabilities of a self driving system. I am not disputing that. I don’t think anyone would or could dispute that, it’s just trivially true.

The point I am trying to make is more nuanced than that.

Basically I’m thinking about whether this decision to ditch lidar is actually stupid, or if there could be a sensible explanation that is plausibly true. I am proposing what I believe is a plausibly true sensible explanation for the decision.

If you think about whether accidents would be reduced by having lidar, the answer is again obviously yes. But if you think about this as a business decision, it is not so simple. The question is not whether accidents would be reduced by having lidar. The question is whether accidents would be reduced enough to justify the added cost and complexity to the system.

So then, how do we figure that out? Well, we think about the causes of human car accidents ranked by percent of car accidents caused. What would be the items in the top 95% let’s say? Then, which of those items can be addressed exclusively by a lidar enabled system.

To isolate can-only-be-fixed-by-lidar problems, I imagine a thought experiment where we have a human with lidar for eyeballs. Which of the top k causes of accidents would be fixed by giving humans lidar eyeballs. Well, maybe not that many, actually. That is my point.

This could be argued to be immoral due to I guess making decisions about death based on business considerations. But it’s probably fairly easy to convince oneself as a Tesla executive that the car (M3 anyway) being affordable is critical to getting the safer-than-human driving tech adopted, so making the car more expensive actually fails to save more people than the lidar would save, etc.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#407

The point I soured on Musk was when he ditched radar/lidar and tried to go with camera's alone. This made me realize he is not the genius he is made out to be but instead he is a fraud/charlatan and over the years his statements on different topics have only hardened that belief. Why the fuck would you want ai cars to be the same as humans you should want them to be many times better and radarr/lidar sonarr type tech…

His biographer estimates his IQ is 100-110. [0] [0] https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/1892710698683142638

Thats ridiculous. His SAT scores puts him in the top 2 percent https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/only-fools-think-elon-is-incom...

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#408
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes, it's missing the millions of FSD miles vs the minutes of drives of all of the rest combined.

at least 5 people would be alive today if tesla had not pushed unreliable technology on the market.

Surely you would have to take into account all the near accidents and crashes that fsd has prevented as well.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone is harping on the engineering. It is a marketing reason first and foremost. Lidar units are ugly as hell. No consumer would ever buy one of those waymo jaguars even if its better if tesla can do 95% of that without looking like a beluga whale.

Didn't early Teslas have lidar? They didn't look like AWACS.

I think they had radar but not lidar.

Re: Self-Driving Teslas Are Fatally Rear-Ending Motorcyclists More Than Any Other

#410
post #366

You might not like Elon but that doesn’t make him wrong.

Yup the continuing poor performance of his FSD is what makes him wrong

SOTA performance. the LiDAR ones have basically failed or completely overfit to a single city.
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