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I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

hindenburgresearch.com

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Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments Without insider knowlege market investments are pure gamble. The best you can do is to bet randomly. Once you deviate from random bets because you are mistakenly think you know something then your investments will underperform.

That isn't guaranteed, because if so you can always do the opposite of what you think and you will overperform. Even if you think you know something, you are, at best, still being random. Anything perceived decrease in return from taking actions is itself just chance (and confirmation bias), because otherwise you could inverse it.

> Even if you think you know something, you are, at best, still being random

Technically true. But somehow in practice you are random in worse ways. Psychology of most people makes them generate very bad randomness.

But you are right. What I said is just good first approximation. Sometimes you can do better. For example listening to most popular financial influencers and doing exactly opposite of what they recommend gives slightly better returns (it was researched). I don't quite remember if better than fully random though or just better than following their advice.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#402
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't support the current punishments, which evidently don't deter the crime, what's your idea of how they should be strengthened to adequately deter financial crime? I'm not trolling.

I'm not OP, but the obvious question here is whether tougher punishments would be more of a deterrent given that this is something that hasn't been true in many other cases going way back. In particular, there seems to be substantial evidence that, at least past a certain point (and we can argue whether we are at that point or not, but it's not something self-evident either), what matters more is how likely the punis…

I disagree. Trevor Milton, the Nikola Motors fraudster CEO will be out after a laughable four years. That's a complete joke.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#403
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember listening to the theme song for "The Social Network" often when I was frustrated at work about 12 years ago in a different job in a different state in a different life. Scala & Kolacny Brothers -- Creep It's a haunting choral cover of the Radiohead song.

Glad to know there are other folks that found The Social Network soundtrack as impactful. I have listened to Hand Cover Bruise first through university and hundreds of times since, often to calm my nerves before some of the biggest milestones of my life.

It not only calmed my nerves but also made me even more determined.

I realized money can't buy happiness, but it can move you away from unhappiness.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#404
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can think of at least one situation, like expiring options, that you wouldn't want to have happening during your "court frozen" period...

I assume that in-the-money options are automatically exercised at expiration in the dead-man situation?

Yes, they will automatically exercise if your dead, the same way they auto execute when you are alive. I have sold many options over the years, with many of them exercising. If they expire ITM, you don't have a choice (whether dead or alive) past expiration.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#405

"just feeling like it" seems insufficient explanation for dismantling a successful organization rather than transitioning it they just completed their "pipeline of ideas" with "the last Ponzi cases" - seems like a surprisingly clean and abrupt end for an investigative organization the team members are "brilliant" and "family to me" but heis disbanding rather than transitioning leadership He mentions some team members…

It's 11 people. It's a band breaking up, not Microsoft choosing its fourth CEO.

And in that same vein it makes sense not to sell because if they ever see another great idea 5-10 years down the line I'd assume they might want to get back together under the same name and publish again. Selling would preclude them from doing that under the same name.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think its brought attention to numerous cases of accounting and other shenanigans. What I've noticed, casually, is that they often target companies or management with a pattern of fraud and abuse, and surprise they keep doing it. VP of Sales gets slapped on the wrist for illegal tactics? A few years later he goes on to be promoted to CEO and.... does the same thing! Amazing.

I’m interested in the materials they open source. I wouldn’t be surprised if the sum of it is “has the company been caught doing fraud more than once and haven’t been shut down? They’re still doing fraud”.

I doubt that's the whole of it, but I'm sure a past pattern definitely comes into play. As someone once said, we are faithfully true to our defects - we tend to repeat our mistakes.

Someone who plays fast and loose with the law to get their sales bonus doesn't just find Jesus and give up one day. More likely he gets promoted and does it all over again.

But some of the short seller research I've heard of like interviewing ex-employees about internal irregularities is quite clever.

In another case (I think it was a different short seller) he went to the actual physical locations declared on paperwork as "offices" and found them to be empty warehouses.

So this kind of interviewing and boots on ground stuff is next level.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#407
post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not OP, but the obvious question here is whether tougher punishments would be more of a deterrent given that this is something that hasn't been true in many other cases going way back. In particular, there seems to be substantial evidence that, at least past a certain point (and we can argue whether we are at that point or not, but it's not something self-evident either), what matters more is how likely the punis…

I disagree. Trevor Milton, the Nikola Motors fraudster CEO will be out after a laughable four years. That's a complete joke.

Do you think he wouldn't do what he had done if the punishment for getting caught would've been worse?

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#408
post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

> I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments Money Magazine a few years ago compared various investment strategies in stocks. The #2 best performing one was investing in the S&P 500. The #1 best performing strategy was the "dead man strategy". The dead man strategy comes into play when the investor dies, and his estate gets frozen until it winds its way through the courts.…

How can I use the 'dead man strategy' if I've just started investing and don't own any stocks?

Because if I already need to have some stocks, than this being the #1 strategy feels like those advice that you get on the internet where if you want to be rich just get born into a wealthy family.

Statistically probably true, but not really doable. :/

I feel like you can only do the 'dead man strategy' when your already dead, since before that it's probably better to keep adding money into the portfolio.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sort of thing is part of my personal motivation for getting into business. Lying is so rampant, so universal, so quietly accepted by everyone in a position of even mild power in business that it's easy to take for granted that you simply cannot succeed without it. I wanted to know if that was actually true - so far, it doesn't seem to be. But I don't blame people for worrying that it might be. People in position…

I hear what you’re saying, but it feels a bit too cynical to expand it to all business. Did you tell your boss you’d finish some task today? If something comes up, as often does at work, and you don’t finish, did you lie? Predicting the future is hard even as soon as what will happen today, now do that for the next quarter or 4 quarters. Of course there are fraudsters out there, but I view most founders as rampant op…

> Did you tell your boss you’d finish some task today? If something comes up, as often does at work, and you don’t finish, did you lie?

No. A good-faith failure is different from a lie.

The rule of thumb I use to handle ambiguous situations is "if my incentives were different, would I be saying something else right now?"

> Of course there are fraudsters out there, but I view most founders as rampant optimists instead of liars.

Most founders are both.

They're rampant optimists in the sense that they believe in their thing so much that it overrides all other concerns. But that often makes them liars via an argument of the form "my thing is so important and will change the world so much that I have to lie now to make sure it can be so great".

I'm not saying founders are ogres. The kind of lying they do derives from fairly ordinary human failures. But it's still lying, it's still normalized, and it still has terrible consequences all the time.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#410
post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Punishment for financial crimes should be calculated based on the average lifetime earnings of a citizen -- if your victims are folks earning at or below the average wage, and you've scammed 100 lifetimes worth of average earnings, it's as if you've murdered 100 people. Can this precedent be extended to the money wasted with failed government projects? But maybe on lifetime taxes rather than lifetime earnings, to b…

That's not even close to comparable. You vote for elected officials to pass bills that are attempted and sometimes failed. And often failed projects produce things of value to society so I'm not sure how you would factor that in, for example if you'd like a refund on the Challenger explosion. You don't vote for criminals to take your money.

> And often failed projects produce things of value to society

True, although also, criminals buy things and pay VAT.

> You don't vote for criminals to take your money.

I vote for elected officials who pass bills (if I were American) that allow/disallow criminal activity.

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