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Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

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Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#401

Post by chairmansteve »

kolbe wrote: post #346
_se wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$10M is never work again money literally anywhere in the world. Don't kid yourself. Buy a $3.5M house outright and then collect $250k per year risk free after taxes. You're doing whatever you want and still saving money.

Assuming they're 40, how far do you think $250k will go 20-30-40 years from now? It's not a stretch to think dollars could be devalued by 90%, possibly even worthless, within 30 years.

They obviously don't keep it dollars. Diversify into equities, property etc.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#402

Post by theGnuMe »

CharlieDigital wrote: post #328
bot347851834 wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you share an example of a use case you have in mind of this "explainer + RAG" combo you just described? I think that RAG and RAG-based tooling around LLMs is gonna be the clear way forward for most companies with a properly constructed knowledge base but I wonder what you mean by "explainer"?. Are you talking about asking an LLM something like "in which way did the teams working on project X deal with Y problem?"…

If you go to https://clinicaltrials.gov/ , you can see almost every clinical trial that's registered in the US. Some trials have their protocols published. Here's an example trial: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06613256 And here's the protocol: https://cdn.clinicaltrials.gov/large-docs/56/NCT06613256/Pro... It's actually relatively short at 33 pages. Some larger trials (especially oncology trials) can have prot…

What's your experience with clinical trials?

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#403

Post by caconym_ »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #347
shmatt wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like this is stating the obvious - but i guess not to many - but a probabilistic syllable generator is not intelligence, it does not understand us, it cannot reason, it can only generate the next syllable It makes us feel understood in the same ways John Edward used to in daytime tv, its all about how language makes us feel true AGI...unfortunately we're not even close

it can actually solve problems though, its not just an illusion of intelligence if it does the stuff we considered mere years ago sufficient to be intelligent. But you and others keep moving the goalposts as benchmarks saturate, perhaps due to a misplaced pride in the specialness of human intelligence. I understand the fear, but the knee jerk response “its just predicting the next token thus could never be intelligen…

The "goalposts" are "moving" because now (unlike "mere years ago") we have real AI systems that are at least good enough to be seriously compared with human intelligence. We aren't vaguely speculating about what such an AI system might be like^[1]; we have the real thing now, and we can test its capabilities and see what it is like, what it's good at, and what it's not so good at.

I think your use of the "goalposts" metaphor is telling. You see this as a team sport; you see yourself on the offensive, or the defensive, or whatever. Neither is conducive to a balanced, objective view of reality. Modern LLMs are shockingly "smart" in many ways, but if you think they're general intelligence in the same way humans have general intelligence (even disregarding agency, learning, etc.), that's a you problem.

^[1] I feel the implicit suggestion that there was some sort of broad consensus on this in the before-times is revisionism.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#404

Post by usaar333 »

Recursing wrote: post #175
ruddct wrote: post #86

Related (possibly): OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41651548

Interesting that gwern predicted this as well yesterday > Translation for the rest of us: "we need to fully privatize the OA subsidiary and turn it into a B-corp which can raise a lot more capital over the next decade, in order to achieve the goals of the nonprofit, because the chief threat is not anything like existential risk from autonomous agents in the next few years or arms races, but inadequate commercializati…

That's not a novel prediction. There were news reports nearly 2 weeks ago about this: https://fortune.com/2024/09/13/sam-altman-openai-non-profit-...

Gwern's more novel prediction track record is calling everyone leaving from OpenAI (Mira was not expected) and general bullishness on scaling years ago. His post from 2 years ago (https://old.reddit.com/r/mlscaling/comments/uznkhw/gpt3_2nd_...) is mostly correct, though incorrectly believed large companies would not deploy user-facing LLMs (granted I think much of this is reasonably obvious?). And Gato2 seems to have never happened.

His overall predictions? I can find his prediction book which he heavily used in 2010 (https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern/page/2?filter=judged&... Brier score of 0.16 is quite good, but this isn't superforecaster level (there's people with Brier scores below 0.1 on that site).

Overall, I see no reason to believe Gwern's numbers over say the consensus prediction at metaculus, even though yes, I do love reading his analysis.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#405

Post by theGnuMe »

mewpmewp2 wrote: post #257
tasuki wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I can say for certain is no executive in her position ever willingly resigns to pursue different passions/spend more time with their family/enjoy retirement or whatever else. Do you think that's because executives are so exceedingly ambitious, or because pursuing different passions is for some reason less attractive?

I would say that reaching this type of position requires exceeding amount of ambition, drive and craving in the first place, and all and any steps during the process of getting there solidify that by giving the dopamine hits to be addicted to such success, so it is not a case where you can just stop and decide "I'll chill now".

Dopamine hits... I wonder if this explains why the OpenAI folks tweet a lot... It's kind of weird right, to tweet a lot?

But all these tweets from lower level execs as well.

I mean I love Machine Learning twitter hot takes because it exposes me to interesting ideas (and maybe that is why people tweet) but it seems more about status seeking/marketing than anything else. And really as I learn more, you see that the literature is iterating/optimizing the current fashion.

But maybe no weirder than commenting here I guess though.. maybe this is weird. Have we all collectively asked ourselves, why do we comment here? It's gotta be the dopamine.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#406

Post by mindslight »

vl wrote: post #354
_se wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$10M is never work again money literally anywhere in the world. Don't kid yourself. Buy a $3.5M house outright and then collect $250k per year risk free after taxes. You're doing whatever you want and still saving money.

With 3.5M house just taxes, utilities and maintenance cost will ruin your remaining 7.5.

The neat part is that for a 3.5M house in the Bay area, the only maintenance required is changing the rain fly every year and the ground pad every couple.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#407

Post by cleandreams »

salomonk_mur wrote: post #393
norir wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time will tell about openai's true import. Right now, the jury is very much out. Even in the llm space, it is not clear that openai will be the ultimate victor. Especially if they keep hemorrhaging talent.

Still, certainly the most visible.

They also get the most revenue and users.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#408

Post by mvkel »

Imnimo wrote: post #7

It is hard for me to square "This company is a few short years away from building world-changing AGI" and "I'm stepping away to do my own thing". Maybe I'm just bad at putting myself in someone else's shoes, but I feel like if I had spent years working towards a vision of AGI, and thought that success was finally just around the corner, it'd be very difficult to walk away.

A couple of the original inventors of the transformer left Google to start crypto companies.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#409

Post by Dylan16807 »

magxnta wrote: post #267
mckirk wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, that question is one of the suggested questions that OpenAI shows themselves in the UI, for the o1-preview model. (Together with 'Is a hot dog a sandwich?', which I confess I will have to ask it now.)

If you have a sandwich and cut it in half, do you have one or two sandwiches?

Assuming a normal cut, this isn't a question about how you define a sandwich, this is a question about the number of servings, and only you can answer that.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#410

Post by tomrod »

theGnuMe wrote: post #397
nebula8804 wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank You! You have explained the exact issue I (and probably many others) are seeing trying to adopt AI for work. It is because of this I don't worry about AI taking our jobs for now. You still need somewhat foundational knowledge in whatever you are trying to do in order to get that remaining 20%. Sometimes this means pushing back against the AI's solution, other times it means reframing the question, and other tim…

and here we are arguing for internet points.

Much more meaningful to this existentialist.
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