Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions • Hacker News Board

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#401

Post by danans » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 2:06 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #377

belorn wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couldn't German industry produce more of them? Heat pumps seems like a technology which isn't import dependent in the way that natural gas is, especially if the government were there to help with funding.

It takes a while to spin up production. It also takes a while to find and train a sufficient number of people to can install them. It also takes a while to increase the supply of electricity so that we have enough power for tens of millions of heat pumps running all winter.

> It also takes a while to increase the supply of electricity so that we have enough power for tens of millions of heat pumps running all winter.

The same therm of natural gas that would have been burned in a domestic gas boiler, if burned in a modern combined cycle gas electricity plant, can provide 2-3X the amount of domestic heat via heat pumps even in the coldest conditions. In shoulder seasons it's more like 3-4X.

The load we need to expand electricity production for is EVs, which use a ton of it comparatively.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#402

Post by _kbh_ » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 2:13 PM UTC

btilly wrote: post #399

_kbh_ wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The denial of reality? The reality is that Russia failed miserably at there noted first goal (regime change in Ukraine) suffered such a resounding loss that they withdrew there army from a axis of the war because they where being decimated. Keep in mind Kyiv is only 50km from the border with Russia, and Russia failed to take it. This was has less been about a denial of reality and really been about seeing just how mu…

Correction. Kyiv is about 380 km from the Russian border. You're thinking of the Belarusian border. But Belarus and Russia are not (yet) one country.

That’s a fair point, but given they invaded via Belarus the original point stands (albeit corrected).

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#403

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 2:28 PM UTC

cpursley wrote: post #176

kennywinker wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not OP but i suspect they’re ok with it because the other option is giving in to an authoritarian regime that is intent on expansion. I.e. war on their doorstep. The realpolitik is speeding up the transition off oil and gas, and energy independence.

Yes, but the sanctions are obviously backfiring on Europeans and not hurting the Russians by any objective measure. I agree on the transition, but where are the bids, construction, etc for new LNG terminals and other replacements? All I see is "Putin bad" talk and no action on what's actually required. But hey, at least no more Russian athletes and violinists!

[deleted]

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#404

Post by throw0101a » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 2:40 PM UTC

rmbyrro wrote: post #223

nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

I remember Trump saying that "Germany is a captive of Russia" [1] because of the prospect of weaponized gas supply cuts. I also hate to say, but, at that particular moment, the man was right. This is why political extremism is bad. Nobody in Europe listened to him. Had him be more respectful, polite and balanced in his communication, maybe he could have convinced Germany to anticipate what they're scrambling to do no…

> I remember Trump saying that "Germany is a captive of Russia" [1] because of the prospect of weaponized gas supply cuts.

People have been saying this since the 1980s:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod_pipeli...

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#405

Post by mythrwy » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 3:13 PM UTC

btilly wrote: post #400

mythrwy wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The denial of reality has not been working very well so far for you. Neither has the craziness and hostility. At what point do you realize this? When you have no coastline and another 100K dead? Or will it take millions in big urban centers and widespread starvation?

Claims that I'm denying reality by someone who clearly is denying reality lacks any sting. Examples. - Offering well-sourced factual claims is not craziness. - I'm not Ukrainian. I assure you that the California coast is not under any current threat. - The military facts on the ground say that Russia cannot successfully take much more territory than it already has, and is extremely unlikely to be able to sustain what…

You haven't raised any real issues about genocide, which is farcical claim on it's face. Also, I'd think this obvious, I wasn't talking to you when referring to the Ukrainian poster.

Also I would not be so sure the coast of California is safe if this keeps going.

"By GDP". Ya ya ya. Debt based scripts being passed around from VCs and overpriced healthcare are actually the same as resources in hand. That scheme totally isn't going to blow up and there are perpetual motion machines.

"Thanks to sanctions". More denial of reality.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#406

Post by mythrwy » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 3:15 PM UTC

btilly wrote: post #396

mythrwy wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no breakaway republics? The majority of people in Crimea did not wish to rejoin Russia? All people on what is (formerly now) Ukraine territory were happy with the post coup Ukrainian government? Is that what you are saying? If not, what exactly of my point do you take issue with? The claims on Russia geo strategical intent? The history of invasions into Russia through Ukraine in fairly recent times? That Cr…

You are not even be attempting to discuss this in good faith. You attribute ridiculous statements to me, such as that the breakaway republics do not exist, and there was universal support in Ukraine for Euromaiden, just so you have something to argue against. You throw complex topics such as the Crimea referendum out there. (For the record, the 97% support that Russia claimed is clearly false, but a majority support…

There is no sense in continuing to discuss it. I've made may point. I wish the best for the Ukrainians.

But from what I see they might be in even worse trouble then I had thought. We might be as well.

There is no genocide (yet anyway and hopefully ever). Please stop using hyperbole. It does your point no favors.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#407

Post by btilly » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 3:17 PM UTC

_kbh_ wrote: post #402

btilly wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correction. Kyiv is about 380 km from the Russian border. You're thinking of the Belarusian border. But Belarus and Russia are not (yet) one country.

That’s a fair point, but given they invaded via Belarus the original point stands (albeit corrected).

True. But their logistics were also stretched, and sabotage of railroads by Belarusian railway workers stretched it even farther.

This compounded the general fact that logistical troubles are one of the great weaknesses of the Russian military machine.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#408

Post by btilly » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 4:10 PM UTC

mythrwy wrote: post #406

btilly wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are not even be attempting to discuss this in good faith. You attribute ridiculous statements to me, such as that the breakaway republics do not exist, and there was universal support in Ukraine for Euromaiden, just so you have something to argue against. You throw complex topics such as the Crimea referendum out there. (For the record, the 97% support that Russia claimed is clearly false, but a majority support…

There is no sense in continuing to discuss it. I've made may point. I wish the best for the Ukrainians. But from what I see they might be in even worse trouble then I had thought. We might be as well. There is no genocide (yet anyway and hopefully ever). Please stop using hyperbole. It does your point no favors.

The fact that you refuse to engage with, for example, an official report from the US state department DOCUMENTING genocide, does not make calling Russias crimes genocide hyperbole.

That said, I agree that further conversation is useless. At this point it should be obvious to anyone reading the thread that I try to source my facts, and report on what is true whether or not I like said facts. It should also be clear that you fail to engage with either facts or sources which do not agree with your world view. And your world view has been heavily shaped by Russian disinformation campaigns.

My final word is that I condemn you for believing and then wanting to appease a genocidal dictator. While refusing to engage with documented evidence of the many crimes that he is lying about.

Feel free to respond however you like. I'm done with this conversation.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#409

Post by kennywinker » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 4:39 PM UTC

cpursley wrote: post #392

kennywinker wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can contradict the opinions of experts all you want, but i’m still going to believe “Russian political scientist Ilya Matveev” over hacker news commenter cpursley 11 times out of ten. I agree it’s not working as well as we’d all hoped, but to say it’s strengthening russia is not in alignment with what all expert opinions i’ve heard so far are saying.

Ilya is a young "political scientist" (not a real science, btw), very open about his left and anti-Russia biases and certainly no economics expert. Please consider broadening your sources of expert opinion because "all experts" are absolutely not in agreement just like "the entire world" is not actually against Russia (unless you believe the EU and Anglo-sphere is "the entire world").

Weird ad-homenums: political science is not a science. He’s not an economist. He’s young. He has an anti-russian bias (he’s literally russian… perhaps you mean anti putin bias?)

The point you just ceded was exactly my point. Not all experts agree. You said originally that sanctions were “obviously not working”. If it was so obvious, wouldn’t the experts agree?

Either way, I’m not resting my entire world view on the word of one man in an npr article. So attacking him doesn’t matter to the point. I’m saying I’ve yet to hear anyone credible, i.e. outside of comments sections, say what you are saying. Instead of attacking the expert I’ve cited, maybe bring your own expert to the table?

Just make sure they’re old, are definitely an economist, they love putin, and have never studied polisci in their life.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#410

Post by bilbo0s » Sat, Jul 16, 2022, 5:17 PM UTC

q1w2 wrote: post #371

bilbo0s wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not the environmentalism that gets us. In fact even if there were no environmental rules or any other regulations at all, we'd still have Vogtie in the mess it's in. Construction costs money and time. Metallurgy costs money and time. And on and on and on. I doubt we could build a reactor for less than USD5 Billion even with no regulations at all. This stuff takes time, and if you don't get it right, the damn thi…

I would advocate the government to protect nuclear plant construction from frivolous litigations, environmental rereviews, and local political challenges, as well as reopen the storage facility in Nevada. The construction isn't the big cost - it's all the nonsense that we do to interfere with those trying to build the plants.

And I'm saying that "those trying to build the plants" has to be the government itself. Because despite your belief, the construction is absolutely the dominant cost.

You need to contract for specialized materials to make components. Forge those materials incorrectly and it's PHYSICS that stops the project from working, not the government. Not lawsuits. Do you have an idea of how much it costs to enrich nuclear materials? Do you have an idea what the specs are for materials that can contain enriched nuclear materials? Materials that can contain a meltdown? What it takes to construct structures incorporating said materials?

I'll tell you right now that it will cost more than lawsuits about the hornbutted swallow losing its habitat or whatever. That's just reality.