Earlier quoted context omitted.
Elon Musk has literally said in a public conference keynote that robotaxis would be running in 2019, and earning Tesla owners 30k/yr since 3 years ago, and that it would be financially foolish to buy anything but a Tesla.
Can you cite that? I've heard lots of those claims repeated but never first-hand
Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
401–410 of 441 posts
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#402Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you cite that? I've heard lots of those claims repeated but never first-hand
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-app...
A journalist said "He said he thinks the program can be implemented as early as next year."
Is not
"literally said in a public conference keynote that robotaxis would be running in 2019"
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#403Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hyundai Motor Group is state-controlled? You mean like GM?
He mixed that up with Chinese corporations. Korean chaebols are more like "state endorsed monopolies". Or state "you can get away with almost anything corporations because you make a large chunk of our GDP and employ a lot of people". That said...I would bet on koreans too.
I'm not mixed up but I guess I should have said state-controlling instead of state-controlled. The chaebols are running the place, that's why they won the DRAM wars. Batteries, same thing. And I was referring to LG Chem, not Hyundai.
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#404Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or it'll be like the time machine in Primer, where you can't go back before the time machine was turned on.
That kinda only works if we’re the only civilization in the universe, right? What if some other civilization discovered it a long time ago?
Something something 'light cone.' If the machine was turned on a million years ago in another star system and then brought to Earth, the Primer model would put you in the other star system when you climb out of the machine. And then you'd need to make your way back to Earth. (It's unclear to me whether you would continue aging while sitting in the box and waiting for a million years to go by in reverse... But I assume you would.)
So I think the 'other civilization' thing only works if they're already approximately here with a running machine.
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#405Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the pavement is clearly marked i would give it a good chance. We have a 6-way intersection with similar lighting that it succeeds at... Other than completely and recklessly disregarding the clearly visible "no turn on red" sign. We also have a road with a reversible lane in the middle. Thankfully it recognizes the red X sign for this. Unfortunately, if it's driving for 11 seconds without seeing anothee, it will su…
Relying on pavement being clearly marked is untenable.
Completely agree. I think this is part of the hazard of the fsd training ethos that 'san francisco is the hardest case.' It completely dodges the issue that California actually maintains safe road markings compared to most other states.
I think in Japan or China this approach could actually work, but there is zero hope for it to work generally in the US.
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#406Earlier quoted context omitted.
And yet Tesla is dominant player in luxury segments they have products in
Analysts suggest that, while they may still be the market leader in EVs, by 2025 they're looking at a decline from today's 70-75% market share to 11-20%: https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2022/07/11/ev-makers... This meshes pretty well with them not having anything in the compact, pickup truck, offroading/camping segments (luxury, or not). They also don't have any commercial vehicles like delivery vans. All of…
Because analysts have always been so accurate forecasting Tesla...
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#407Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-app...
A journalist said "He said he thinks the program can be implemented as early as next year." Is not "literally said in a public conference keynote that robotaxis would be running in 2019"
Did you watch the video in the link? Musk says "next year, for sure, we will have over 1 million robotaxis on the road".
Here is a longer video of that announcement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GnH_C6NrOM
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#408Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s naive to call yourself beta tester. People who have access to beta are basically just a part of PR exercise by Tesla, that tries to hide lack of meaningful progress towards multiple missed deadlines. You aren’t beta testing complex automation system that’s operating on public roads. To do any meaningful testing you should have defined operation domain, specific behaviors to test, direct line to the engineering t…
You're thinking of QA testing. Beta testing is the final stage of testing before release and aims to test the system in as close as realistic environment as possible - that's why betas are often seeded to the general public, you want to find out if your system doesn't work on some configuration or circumstances that you didn't anticipate in internal testing. Better to have it fail for a limited number of users who si…
QA testing doesn't exist for FSD. And you're applying standards used to test apps to share dickpics to a software that's moving killing machines in shared environment with other people.
It's not acceptable to have it fail for limited number of users. As my kid who may get killed by the failure didn't sign up for it.
How would you feel if this was a standard for aircrafts? "Let's just push this change to a small portion of the fleet, and boy, if that plane crashes, it's soooo much better if all our planes would crash. High five, where's my bonus?!".
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#409Don't worry guys, FSD is right around the corner!
Let’s admit the real innovation here. It’s not FSD. It’s the underground tunnels with traffic. Underground traffic for all to be autopiloted through with their Teslas so that we can all meet at the digital town square on our phones.
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#410Earlier quoted context omitted.
I can forgive a lot of grandiosity as long as he keeps delivering more than his competitors. Steve Jobs was also known for his “reality distortion field”, so maybe it comes with the territory. That said, FSD progress seems asymptotic and the Optimus thing always seemed like bullshit.
Yes, but Steve Jobs delivered. He was rude and whatnot, but far from a fraud.
You don’t think SpaceX and Tesla have delivered quite a lot? FSD is really the only big project I can think of this far behind, and maybe Cybertruck. I don’t think it’s fair to ignore all his other accomplishments.