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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

reuters.com

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#401

Post by cycomanic »

oh_sigh wrote: post #333
SyzygistSix wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of race, plenty of people have brought up that this is about as popular to many Russians as the US invading Canada would be.

I agree, but that is a completely different point than "The western world only cares about this conflict because the victims have blue eyes and blonde hair"

But if you compare the outrage about what was happening in Syria (or Iraq or Afghanistan) to the outrage now, we clearly are at a very different level. It can't be because the Russian are acting so much more ruthlessly now.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#402

Post by dathinab »

vkou wrote: post #355
maratc wrote: post #315

I think that Russia may have a two-prong strategy: either make sure Ukraine is not joining NATO, or make sure that Ukraine that joins NATO is completely wrecked. In the alternative reality, where Ukraine promises tomorrow not to join NATO (ever), the Russian targets for this war may be considered achieved, and everyone could simply go home, probably throwing in a couple billions deal for Ukraine recovery. This would…

I doubt that Russian demands about NATO are in good faith. It's hard to believe that the goal of this invasion was to prevent encirclement, given how Finland and Sweeden's reactions were completely predictable. I think the goal was annexation. The demands put out right now are intentionally unreasonable, but even if they were met, it would not stop the fighting.

There seem to also be natural gas reserves in the sea west of Crimea.

If Ukrain joins NATO Russia would not be able to hold onto Crimea and could become a Petrol state.

With renewables replacing part of the Gas energy demand long term (10/15y) this could mean that Ukrain could replace all Gas imports previously done from Russia. At the same time a modern and well-working Ukrain could influence Russia (as a unintended side-effect) in a destabilizing way (anti-authoritarian Government movements).

So if my info is correct a stable NATO Ukrain could, in a decade or so, lead to a situation where Russia is making very little money, no longer being able to afford much military besides for self-defense usage. That there is also a shrinking populating constantly reducing the amount of "potential soldiers" isn't helping. Neither is helping that a lot of middle tier and upper middle tier Russians have left Russia in the last many years (I think, not 100% sure), this reduces the chance for economical growth through new businesses.

If all of this is true (I'm not sure) then Putin might believe that they have to either take over or majorly destabilize Ukrain if Russia like it's currently is want to continue to exists. (This doesn't mean it would disappear, but it would need to change likely at the cost of the current oligarchs.)

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#403

Post by high_pathetic »

woah wrote: post #386
high_pathetic wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russian tank - deliberate run-over. Blast about it from all media channels. Oh, it's a Ukrainian tank. Pfft, it was in a accident, let's not talk about it. That's why I don't read/watch news, especially nowadays.

Ukraine wouldn't be putting 70 year olds in tanks if it wasn't being invaded in an unprovoked war by a much larger neighbor (and no, the goal of punishing NATO for not giving Russia a blank check to invade Ukraine by invading Ukraine is not a valid provocation).

70+ year old was in the car, not in the tank.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#404

Post by tguvot »

csee wrote: post #377
tguvot wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

absolutely nothing. nada. zero. it's full blown 1984. everybody who says word war instead of "special military operation" is taken off air (they shut down two major radio stations). they are going to make televised school lesson explaining to kids purpose of operation is to keep republics safe (they also sent upfront documents showing how things must be explained to children) duma supposed to make law tomorrow that s…

So, suppose that Putin does capture all of eastern Ukraine. How does he plan to announce it to the population? "Surprise! it wasn't actually just LNR/DNS!"?

"They overthrew their nazi juna and surrendered". The official propoganda states that ukranian army doesn't fight, only nazi batallions. also nazi's execute ukranian military personal that refuses to fight. there is an article about this on ria

Also this was published on 26th and purged https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20...

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#405

Post by dathinab »

michael1999 wrote: post #269

I'd be worried that any un-married fighter pilots might just defect. A quick run to Poland, and you're done.

I don't think Russia would let you take the jet with you.

I mean whatever their situation is, I'm pretty sure they still can assassinate defecting pilots. And I'm pretty sure the pilots know.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#406

Post by kspacewalk2 »

google234123 wrote: post #381
danenania wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't even see how (b) is going to work at this point--with the massive flow of weapons and money that is coming from the West, and NATO safe havens on the borders, Russia will be playing whack-a-mole against insurgency forever no matter how much force they use. Imagine if the Iraq or Afghanistan insurgencies had had access to an endless supply of top-of-the-line weapons, orders of magnitude more funding, and 'safe…

Yo be fair, those insurgencies did kind of have access to safe zones (Pakistan is next to Afghanistan) and a good supply of weapons which definitely helped them.

It was, however, nothing close to the levels of support Ukraine is getting. And those insurgencies faced a vastly superior US armed forces.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#407

Post by csense »

jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

Don't forget about option (d), try to kill everyone in Ukraine. Less than 100 years have passed since Stalin attempted exactly that, by killing all the farmers and selling all the food.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#408

Post by vbezhenar »

jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

Ukraine population is brain washed by west propaganda. They’ll brain wash them with Russian propaganda and that’s about it.

It’s all about controlling the media.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#409

Post by tguvot »

akho wrote: post #382
tguvot wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

like seriously, lol. their intelligence were crappy enough to miss a bunch of air defense systems but they know that in some specific building is an recruitment for azov

The specific building is the regional administration, and recruitment there was advertised in Ukrainian telegram channels. All that excuses nothing.

there is recruitment to regional defense everywhere right now.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#410

Post by rurp »

ProjectArcturis wrote: post #190
rr808 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was my thought too. They have the luxury if just sitting there waiting safely for the right time while the capital self implodes. Western press talks a lot about it, meanwhile in the South the war is going badly.

Sources? I'm trying to diversify media and would love anything that doesn't filter through a pro- or anti-Russia lens. So far Al Jazeera is the best I've found.

I'll second Al Jazeera. I've been looking at various news sources trying to find unbiased up to date info and they are the best I've found so far. The daily live blogs are great when I have the time to follow them.
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