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America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich

economist.com

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Re: America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich

#401
post #339
post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't post ideological flamewar comments to HN. They make threads predictable, tedious, and usually nasty. We're trying for something different here: thoughtful, curious conversation. To the extent possible on the public internet. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

How is explaining that the problem is inherent to this particular way of doing business a flame war?

The first paragraph was ok, although it was already a generic ideological tangent, which does not make for good HN discussion (https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...).

But "UBI or stfu" was pure flamebait and obviously against the site guidelines, especially since UBI is one of the classic generic flamewar topics. (From https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html: "Eschew flamebait. Avoid unrelated controversies and generic tangents.")

"Time to try some trickle up economics" is just ideological rhetoric, which is flame fuel. And "for the love of God" is more internet flamey tropiness.

All in all, that makes for a bad HN comment.

Re: America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich

#402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"When did I say anything about printing money?" Because that's how UBI will have to come into fruition i.e. under the auspices 'MMT' or some other made up term. It's 100% politically impossible to raise taxes on the middle and upper 1/3 to to the extent necessary to pay off the bottom 1/4-1/3 of the population to (mostly) do nothing and that's not even starting to consider the instantaneous shock of inflation that wi…

> It's 100% politically impossible to raise taxes on the middle and upper 1/3 to to the extent necessary to pay off the bottom 1/4-1/3 of the population to (mostly) do nothing That's not the idea or reasonably foreseeable effect of UBI. Rather ambitious near-term UBI ideas aim it right around the Federal Poverty Level, which is the income at which only about 13% of the population would be at or above their current re…

These are the fallacies that I'm highlighting.

1) Unions will not permit the dissolution of the systems in place.

2) 'Means testing' should not theoretically be hard - and - it's actually a rational thing to do (so long as you point out the disincentive is not there) - ergo a reform of these programs should yield much the same benefit. But they won't and they don't.

So the first fallacy is to not recognize that the means by which these things are organized has less to do with economic theory and more to do with organizational competence and efficiency - which we struggle with.

But on the other side of the equation:

3) We don't understand the nature of work, poverty etc.. Everyone thinks about homeless people as though they have the same life motivations as the rest of us, grinding away in the system, and that's wrong.

People in tent cities are already mostly opting between 'tent city squalor' and 'Amazon factory drudgery'. Yes, it's hard to get a job from a tent, but even they had the chance to work at the Amazon / Waffle House, they just won't want to do it.

Those people will not come out of tents for $500 a month even with the opportunity to earn more. In an absolute free market situation, they would live in tiny, semi-permanent structures and chill out.

When you mix drugs into the equation, incentives are more perverse. Where I live we have $1K a month means tested welfare, and many homeless opt for living rough during the summer (and taking a flat in the winter) because they'd rather spend it on crack. That dynamic is only exacerbated with more money.

Students fresh out of College, in the area that I live in all have a lot of side interests. I know many of them and I believe the average choice among them would be to take UBI, work on their documentary (which is not very good), go to the gym, and maybe work a few days now and again (serving coffee) for some money for the trip to Africa.

With free Uni, free Healthcare, almost free childcare (this is Canada), you've subsidized the entire cost of living and externalized all of the difficult work, ugly work, and especially the kind of work that takes a lot of time and professionalism to develop. Esp. those 'late stage career people' with significant responsibilities upon which we depend a lot aka 'the legitimate elite'.

Which is where the reality of the economics comes into play ... even if someone could make the argument that UBI 'is affordable' - which I would totally disagree with other than for a paltry amount, say $500 a month, the loss in productivity at the lower end would be substantial, to the point wherein we'd see large swaths of value evaporated, the cost of labour would rise significantly and incentive structures would start failing.

If we're talking just 'economic incentives' than probably just better taxation at the higher (getting rid of loopholes and higher rates on the ultra-rich), and a bump in mimimum wage would make a big difference because the allocation of that 'extra capital focused on the lower end' would still have some market efficiency and it would be oriented towards productivity.

That - and basic, communitarian social measures would work.

I believe UBI is like Crtypo or Bitcon - utopian solution that fails for fairly obvious reasons, like a kind of 'solve the equation' thinking that we technical people have that just doesn't work once you account for the more obvious social features of society.

I don't think there are any magic solutions. We have to raise our kids well, provide some kind of quasi-level playing ground, and accept some people will fall of the edge and have some way to help them and to try to minimize that.

Re: America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich

#404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pay more with that pot of gold you're sitting on?

We are absolutely paying our people more, just gave everybody raises. But can’t get new people even when we offer more.

Probably still underpaying then, aren’t you?

And giving everyone raises after a record year of inflation isn’t exactly a headline statement. It’s more like - “our workers would have made less this year than last year if we hadn’t given them raises… and probably would’ve quit. So, we had to give them raises.”

Re: America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich

#405
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Outside the problem definition

And that's how we end up with refugee crises. (amongst a plethora of other moral, ethical and humanitarian issues)

Nobody denying that

Re: America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich

#406
post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After reading about the history and impact of minimum wages it is a policy that I vehemently oppose. Minimum wage started in most places as a way to price a group of workers out of the market so some other group could keep their jobs at the pay they liked. Additionally, minimum wage fails to deliver on its promise of helping low income groups. It makes less jobs available to low skill workers making it more difficult…

I wonder what exactly you’ve been reading or get to this conclusion.

A few years ago I would have wondered the same thing. After reading Basic Economic by Thomas Sowell I searched for more information to counter the book's claims on minimum wage. In the end I came to the conclusion that Sowell is right. Minimum wage is a net negative in society. Minimum wage is harmful to the low income groups the policy is supposed to help.

Example of job protection origins:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carriesheffield/2014/04/29/on-t...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis%E2%80%93Bacon_Act_of_193...

https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bls/bl...

Australia protecting jobs from Chinese workers pg 17

British Columbia protecting jobs from "Asiatics" pg 68

South Africa protecting jobs from "colored" workers pg 74

Re: America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich

#407
post #378
post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in your opinion it was the companies fault that they didn't purposely leave a competitive advantage on the table while their competition surely utilized it? It seems that you judge from a place of detached ignorance. We are going through a pandemic and that business owner may very well be worried the bottom will fall out any moment and if that owner has employees it is their responsibility to prepare as much as po…

>>So in your opinion it was the companies fault that they didn't purposely leave a competitive advantage on the table while their competition surely utilized it? Are you OK with upper middle class and rich people getting in line at 'no questions asked' food banks? even though they don't need the help? taking away food from people that actually need it? If so, please explain the the difference.

Nope, but I actually want to solve problems rather than start drama, which is why I blame the mis-allocation of public resources towards providing upper middle class with food from food banks.

If you're looking for problems, blame is easy to throw around. If you're looking for solutions you have to start with the processes that can be held accountable and changed. You can wish all you want, but your moral judgement isn't going to change the actions of people you don't know.

What _will_ work however is demanding that public resources are allocated appropriately. That's because the government works for us, but that person you want to denigrate owes you nothing.

Re: America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich

#408
post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paying mortgages, or a percentage thereof, for people? If it's considered an interest free loan on which the people would pay back in their taxes or on any sale of the home initiated by the owner or as inheritance fees, possibly with a maximum delay before payments must be attempted, then that seems fairly straightforward to me.

How would the government have capacity to do this? It's much easier to just purchase bundles of mortgage backed securities. From the moral hazard standpoint, I think they were worried more about the lenders rather than the lendees. Under this arrangement, even the shadiest of private lenders get rewarded. Under TARP, at least it was just banks that got bailed out, and they could buy the MBSs at a discount.

> How would the government have capacity to do this? It's much easier to just ...

I don't find the argument that "it's hard to track and manage that" valid or compelling for an organization which includes the IRS as one of its constituent parts.

Actually paying portions of mortgages would both keeps the banks solvent as well as keep the people capable of pulling through with assistance from taking the burden of the problem because of what might be temporary issues (a recession and lack of work). It's a much more market based solution than "throw money at banks", in that it doesn't subvert the market entirely, just supplements it.

They would still need to allow people that had no hope of paying their mortgage to lose their homes, and something different might be needed for that to keep that subset of the problem space (which might be a large subset, a lot of lenders were fudging number to get people into homes they couldn't afford) from still causing things to spiral out of control, but there was no guarantee that the first part of TARP was going to be enough either, so it's not like "the situation needs to be closely monitored for future needed intervention" wasn't an assumed part of any proposed plan.

Re: America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich

#409
post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is bad to keep citing 2008 money as if it were a handout. Much of the money was paid back with interest, and the government MADE money on those loans. Look up the “maiden lane” loans for an example.

> It is bad to keep citing 2008 money as if it were a handout. So if I make reckless decisions because I am greedy, the govt should bail me out and then if some of my investments work out in the end I can return the govt's money. Its heads I win and tails I dont lose strategy.

That's actually the strategy, yes. It sounds like it might be bad, but...it isn't? In practice, people don't want to take risks that are irresponsible, they want to make money.

I'd also point out that it was not the riskiness of the assets that the government bailed out. It was the complexity of valuation that reduced the short term liquidity in those CDOs and other collateralized and securitized debt products. When they were actually unwound, it turns out the risk was lower than people thought it would be.

Re: America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich

#410
post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would the government have capacity to do this? It's much easier to just purchase bundles of mortgage backed securities. From the moral hazard standpoint, I think they were worried more about the lenders rather than the lendees. Under this arrangement, even the shadiest of private lenders get rewarded. Under TARP, at least it was just banks that got bailed out, and they could buy the MBSs at a discount.

> How would the government have capacity to do this? It's much easier to just ... I don't find the argument that "it's hard to track and manage that" valid or compelling for an organization which includes the IRS as one of its constituent parts. Actually paying portions of mortgages would both keeps the banks solvent as well as keep the people capable of pulling through with assistance from taking the burden of the p…

>I don't find the argument that "it's hard to track and manage that" valid or compelling for an organization which includes the IRS as one of its constituent parts

Doesn't this article highlight what happens if you haphazardly throw together a complicated relief effort overnight? The money ends up in the pockets of the rich anyways.

>Actually paying portions of mortgages would both keeps the banks solvent

Exactly, which is part of the problem I'm highlighting. Under this arrangement, the lenders and mortgage backed securities holders don't get punished at all. If the homeowners get to keep the their home, that means the lender gets everything that they asked for. If the homeowner receives government assistance and loses their home anyways, the lender still ends up with government money. Lenders are literally getting rewarded for their reckless lending.

Presumably with TARP, the Treasury negotiated the purchase prices with the banks to make sure that they were punished, but not so much they'd collapse.

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