Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater • Hacker News Board

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#401

Post by anonuser123456 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:27 PM UTC

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

>Don't build a custom house either. A simple home will make the process go smoothly.

I don’t get why simplicity isn’t more of a thing. Complexity is just asking for extra maintenance and the very high likelihood of something being done wrong.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#402

Post by rascul » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:28 PM UTC

saalweachter wrote: post #356

throwaway316943 wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Build a shed first. There are lots of free designs online. Choose one with a window so you’ll know how to frame openings and fit windows and doors. Put the type of siding you’d want for the house on it. Then build a detached garage, get experience with pouring a slab, attaching walls to a foundation, trusses, more practice with exterior doors and windows, insulation, wiring. If you’re really feeling confident you cou…

For TV viewing, try to watch the "fixing the stuff that went wrong" style TV/YouTube shows, where a builder is going around going, "Oh god, you can't do that that way, do that this way". Part of learning is learning from mistakes -- you learn which parts of the "correct" way to do something are essential, and you learn why the correct way is correct, when the incorrect way fails. Ideally, that's the part you want to…

> Pro-tip: most fasteners (nails and screws) are not "structural"; they hold wood in place, but they don't support weight. That's why eg windows are framed the way they are, instead of just nailing a 2x4 between two others; it allows each piece of wood to be supported directly by another.

Very good tip. So very often I see decks (for example) built improperly, relying on non structural fasteners to hold it all together. This kind of stuff tends to fail in a number of years. I've seen a few collapsed porch roofs for the same reasons. Make sure your fasteners are rated for how they're used. A general rule of thumb is that wood sits on wood, not attached to the side.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#403

Post by xyzzyz » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:30 PM UTC

datavirtue wrote: post #372

karolist wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know a person who built his aerated concrete house working a day job over 3 years, he did 98% of the tasks himself and probably 95% of those alone whilst maintaining a full-time day job. He has a non-english blog with many pictures and process documentation and was a huge inspiration to me whilst I DIY'd my new 2 bdr apartment from this https://imgur.com/a/UXfmx0Y to this https://imgur.com/a/vGntuhJ in the span of…

YouTube...essential craftsman. Builds a spec house and explains every detail from lot prep to selling it. Huge video series. I watched the whole thing and it reminded me of the craftsman I worked with as I was growing up.

He does open house tomorrow/Saturday, so if you live in driving distance to Roseburg, and want to see the house/shake his hand, it’s a pretty unique opportunity.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#404

Post by btbuildem » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:33 PM UTC

bildung wrote: post #223

ghshephard wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100% of the analysts that I read, and, if I'm not mistaken, close to 100% of the mill owners recognized that this was a temporary blip, and that lumber would fall back into the $500sh range (There is a natural floor - that's the price at which BC mills no longer make money and start shutting down/curtailing capacity.) None of the mills started expanding or engaging in capital programs to try and take advantage of the…

> None of the mills started expanding or engaging in capital programs to try and take advantage of the increased prices. I'm a bit doubtful about this because I know that even German mills started to produce lumber with US dimensions, causing shortages for metric lumber locally.

Haha, and that was probably some of the straightest, most consistent lumber seen in North America in decades

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#405

Post by andysomniac » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:40 PM UTC

rgallagher27 wrote: post #238

joeberon wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's excellent pain-viewing

Excellent drinking-game tv! Take a shot every time Kevin says "bespoke"

There was an unofficial drinking game on the internet, Kevin found out about it and deliberately made one episode to ensure all the rules got hit as frequently as possible.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#406

Post by jcgoette » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:45 PM UTC

bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

Following this via WSJ:

COMMODITIES

Western Wildfires Lift Lumber Prices

July 22, 2021 04:45 pm ET

Fires are threatening an important swath of the U.S.’s wood supply, pinching output that has been under pressure since the pandemic touched off homebuying and remodeling booms and sent lumber prices soaring.

COMMODITIES

Lumber Prices Are Falling Fast, Turning Hoarders Into Sellers

June 15, 2021 08:29 pm ET

Prices have dropped from record highs spurred by the economic reopening, potentially pointing to an eventual return to normalcy.

COMMODITIES

Despite Lumber Boom, Few New Sawmills Coming

May 17, 2021 04:49 pm ET

Executives in the cyclical business of sawing logs into lumber say they are content to rake in cash while lumber prices are sky-high and aren’t racing out to build new sawmills.

MARKETS

Lumber Prices Break New Records

May 3, 2021 04:49 pm ET

Home buyers and renters are bearing the brunt of rising wood costs, while sawmills are poised for another quarter of big profits.

MARKETS

Lumber Prices Notch Records on Building, Remodeling Boom

February 16, 2021 05:17 pm ET

Lumber prices have shot to fresh records, defying the normal winter slowdown in wood-product sales in a sign that the pandemic building boom is bowling into 2021.

COMMODITIES

Lumber Prices Rise Again

November 20, 2020 04:42 pm ET

Lumber prices are making an unusual late-season climb, thanks to builder-friendly autumn weather and suppliers stocking up for what they expect to be another big year for home construction.

https://www.wsj.com/search?query=Random%20Length%20Lumber

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#407

Post by shados » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:45 PM UTC

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

They're not lying though when saying everything else skyrocketed. There's been shortages of everything.

With that said, labor shortage in the trades is probably the biggest culprit at this point. Even before the pandemic, in some areas you couldn't get a contractor to come in to do anything unless it was a massively profitable project. I had contractors walk away from 6 figure projects because they weren't big enough.

The pandemic made it a lot worse. Plumbers here are booked 6 weeks ahead for anything that isn't an emergency.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#408

Post by mxmilkiib » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:45 PM UTC

joeberon wrote: post #228

pjc50 wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just pictured a typical computer developer in a wet lot, with an unhappy wife. Have you heard of the TV programme Grand Designs ? It's just this over and over again. Sometimes the wife is pregnant, sometimes they're living in a caravan on site. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/grand-designs They're not trying to build anything as simple as a house, either, the "grand" part implies some mad architectural vision…

It's excellent pain-viewing

https://twitter.com/ukgranddesigns no context grand designs

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#409

Post by winslow » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:45 PM UTC

baremetal wrote: post #400

i quit my software job and bought 20 acres of undeveloped farmland. then i got a job on a framing crew so i could learn to build my own house. built a polebarn on the land so far. and getting ready to dig a foundation probably next year. its been the most exciting fulfilling adventure of my life so far. just got first harvest last month.

That's pretty awesome. What's going to be your first harvest? How industrial are you going with the farming or are you doing a greener eco way of farming (no till, no fertilizer, etc)?

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#410

Post by shados » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 2:46 PM UTC

baremetal wrote: post #400

i quit my software job and bought 20 acres of undeveloped farmland. then i got a job on a framing crew so i could learn to build my own house. built a polebarn on the land so far. and getting ready to dig a foundation probably next year. its been the most exciting fulfilling adventure of my life so far. just got first harvest last month.

My friends and I always joke about quitting our software jobs to go work on a farm when things get rough. We're obviously just joking (things are never that bad).

But you actually did it and living the meme. Kudos!