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18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

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Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#401

Post by dnautics »

majewsky wrote: post #333
dnautics wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that's counting people who have bothered to get tested. If younger people are getting asymptomatic or minor symptom covid that looks like a cold, then the "true" ifr will be even lower

Infection fatality rates are based on antibody seroprevalence studies and thus accounts for asymptomatic cases. What you're thinking of is the case fatality rate, not the infection fatality rate.

You can't get an accurate community seroprevalence measure when your community is told to shelter in place.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#402

Post by guscost »

zwaps wrote: post #339
guscost wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the reply. And er, good that you don’t actually want to go as far as killing me - there’s some wild shit out there right now. I would still be in favor of arguing about all the details over drinks, but for now I’ll just offer the roughest outline of the other perspective, which is: Refusing to accept a temporarily increased risk of disease, and instead dramatically increasing the chance that your fellow hu…

Are you able to come out and make your point, or are you constraint to vague phrases with threatening words? Just as a tip: this is super annoying and not very clever.

If you don’t already understand that argument as a perfectly obvious concern, we will probably not agree. It is obvious to hundreds of millions, probably billions, of people all over the world.

I recommend you look for conversations outside your usual bubble, and when you find someone to ask questions of, don’t pair the questions with insults.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#403

Post by ryandrake »

rmk wrote: post #110
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure your reading of the political climate is accurate. A lot of places have already reopened schools, and I’ve heard a lot of politicians explicitly say that they’re willing to pay the price because it’s not a big deal if kids get it. Maybe they’re wrong, but if you expect that there’ll be public support behind keeping things closed when the death and hospitalization rates start plummeting, I think you’d bet…

I'm not saying that places will be shut down completely. I was talking specifically about masking and physical distancing mandates and other such restrictions. I don't think big business and the public will tolerate losing another season of attending (in-person) Football, Baseball, Ice Hockey, games.

> I don't think big business and the public will tolerate losing another season

The whole "COVID fatigue" thing is one of the craziest things I keep hearing with regard to this pandemic. The virus doesn't care if you're bored of the disease and "won't tolerate" staying home from more football games. It's not like it's just going to go away because we're tired of it! I sincerely hope governments aren't going to just open things up because 2021 is a different year and everyone's just really bummed of it all. Surely we have better sense than that.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#404

Post by guscost »

Kim_Bruning wrote: post #374
wernercd wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except other western countries haven't "gotten it under control"... they are all having second waves and resurgences with or without large lockdowns and with or without draconian processes. > fairly simple Until you start looking at how many lives are saved vs the second and third tier effects. Higher suicide rates from losing jobs and stress? People in third world countries dying from a cratered world economy? etc.…

Living on the border of two such western countries, I'd like to point out that they are definitely taking measures (currently lockdowns) to keep things under control, the lockdowns have a very measurable effect on R, and the death rate in both countries is something like 1-2 orders of magnitude less than the USA. Basically you're trying to control R. As long as you keep R under 1, you can increase and reduce measures…

The one huge tragic problem with that plan is that when we surrender our freedoms “temporarily” to the government, they never give them back! Or at least we do not trust they will give them back, based on vast experience (see: Patriot Act), so this plan cannot work.

The naïveté on display here is staggering. "You can vote your way into fascism, but you have to shoot your way out."

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#405

Post by T-hawk »

gruturo wrote: post #321
T-hawk wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said "fuck it, I'm taking my life back" months ago. And then I realized how little that is possible. How are you going to protest your way into a concert that isn't performing? How are you going to demand your way into a university that isn't teaching? How are you going to riot your way into a Disneyland that isn't running? How are you going to force your way into a sports stadium that isn't playing? How are you go…

> We are no longer ever allowed to make personal risk management decisions. Your freedom borders with mine - you should be allowed to do EVERYTHING which doesn't affect others without their consent. Ignoring COVID-19 precautionary measures isn't one of those things, and I am happy the joy-destroying authoritarian overlords took that choice from you.

People can't do these things even WITH everyone's consent.

What if I and 500 of my friends want to have a comics convention? With everyone fully aware and accepting of any risks?

Nope, absolutely not allowed anywhere in the entire damn world.

It's right there in the US Constitution. "No law abridging the freedom of the people to peaceably assemble." It does not say "except in case of arbitrarily-declared forever-lasting so-called emergency." If you want it to say that, amend it. If such an amendment wouldn't pass, that's because it damn well shouldn't.

This is freedom-destroying authoritarianism, and the frightened sheep like you eat it up. This is where democracy breaks, if 51% of people want to lock down the other 49% forever, the other 49% are fucked forever.

If you fear contagion and think you need to stay away from me, that is on YOU to restrict YOUR activities. You do not get to restrict mine.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#406

Post by guscost »

Vinceo wrote: post #324
guscost wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s all wrapped up in the same context. Wear the mask, get the vaccine, trust the science, and we will un-person you if you question any of it . The last part is the problem!

The funny thing is that a lot of the measures are based on either bad science or not science at all. Still, the masses will tell you to fall in line and accept the meaaures because "science says so". If you ask them to explain the scientific method on the spot 99% won't be able to do so. No wonder why they're so easily fooled. The "experts" are the new priests and science is the new religion. And don't you dare quest…

> The "experts" are the new priests and science is the new religion.

Pretty much - sacrificing common sense on the altar of p-hacked statistics. It’s disturbing to witness.

> And don't you dare question it.

Nope, it is our civic duty to question all of it, until we are gagged or killed. Fuck that noise.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#407

Post by cobookman »

raldi wrote: post #175
cobookman wrote: post #93

America has ~330 million people. Let's assume the 18.7 Million was just in the month of january..not 100% acurate, but not 100% inaccurate. That gives us a timeline of more than 1 year at current rate to vaccinate the entire US. Even vaccinating 70% the population will take roughly a year at current pace. Puts things in some perspective.

That’s not how exponential curves work.

I highly doubt we'll have an exponential curve for manufacturing supply.

Even a 2x increase is incredibly difficult. Just look at n95 manufacturing, a much easier problem to solve. We never saw exponential curve in its manufacturing.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#408

Post by Kim_Bruning »

guscost wrote: post #399
Kim_Bruning wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, you're one of the ones who actually is rational about things. Put it this way: your liberty to spread your germs ends just where my nose begins. Else we're just permitting tyranny by another route. Currently there's a very infectious and deadly germ on the loose, so -under the above rule- everyone's freedom becomes more constrained than we'd ideally like. It's certainly evil; but it's not the human evil of fascis…

You exhale viruses. You exhale CO2. The campaign to remake society in response to these threats is, in its purest essence, a campaign to redefine the free human as a toxic animal. If successful, it will then be used to justify slavery and murder. And to borrow a page from the global warming folks, we’re not going to wait and see whether that hunch is right, because by then it will be too late. It’s time to end this.

That didn't happen last time?

The USA actually dealt with a similar situation just over 100 years ago in 1918, and people did similar things, and the USA came through just fine as a nation (albeit 600000 citizens lighter :-( ) .

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#409

Post by ryandrake »

zwaps wrote: post #341
wernercd wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and yet states that didn't - and aren't - locking down - like Florida - are doing fine. Or better than states that have extensive lockdowns like New York, New Jersey and California... > Political reasons ... aggressive lockdowns in Australia Locking down a small country like Australia is much different than locking down a country like the US. Australia is only 20% smaller than the US yet has 10% of the population. Th…

Didn’t a person literally get arrested for trying to publish the real numbers of deaths in Florida?

Yea, Florida is not "doing fine" by any stretch of the imagination. It's just that they don't want to report numbers that show them not doing fine, as the entire state is funded by tourism.

They seem to be doing a pretty good job with vaccination though, so there's that!

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#410

Post by Kim_Bruning »

guscost wrote: post #404
Kim_Bruning wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Living on the border of two such western countries, I'd like to point out that they are definitely taking measures (currently lockdowns) to keep things under control, the lockdowns have a very measurable effect on R, and the death rate in both countries is something like 1-2 orders of magnitude less than the USA. Basically you're trying to control R. As long as you keep R under 1, you can increase and reduce measures…

The one huge tragic problem with that plan is that when we surrender our freedoms “temporarily” to the government, they never give them back! Or at least we do not trust they will give them back, based on vast experience (see: Patriot Act), so this plan cannot work. The naïveté on display here is staggering. "You can vote your way into fascism, but you have to shoot your way out."

In other comments people pointed out that New Zealand followed this more stringent strategy.

Right now, they're all outside enjoying summer with almost normal freedoms, while we're still stuck indoors. I must admit I'm jealous!

I don't think the Kiwis are currently preparing to shoot their way out of anything right at the moment. Probably because they're pretty much free to do whatever they want.

I will grant that New Zealand had an easier time of it as an island nation with a low population density, but it does give you pause for thought. Maybe we all could do better next time when the next pandemic rolls around.

Theory vs Practice. Who's more free right now?

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