401–410 of 778 posts
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It would be easier if he'd stop making grandiose claims like "self driving is only two years away!"
Two years away? Just in mid-February he said "You'll be in FSD, coast to coast, in of our cars, _this year_".
He was saying only that the internal development versions of the software would be able to do that by then.
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Also: "Operating cash flow less capex should be positive in every quarter including Q2. As the impact of higher deliveries and cost reduction take full effect, we expect to return to profitability in Q3 and significantly reduce our loss in Q2."
Also: "Not by a lot, but I am optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and all quarters going forward."
It was fairly obvious that this was going to happen when they announced their "Investor Autonomy Day" a couple of days before earnings. Get people thinking about the long term rather than this quarter.
If anyone with money believed a word of what Elon mumbled on Autonomy Day the stock would have moved up. (It didn’t)
Well, I guess that explains the Autonomy Day [1] event from just two days ago where they presented themselves as the Pack Leader, when everyone else knows it's Waymo (by far). Quoting user RivieraKid [2]: Take a moment and think about why are they doing this event now. Elon is setting a stage for a capital raise, he's pitching the autonomy narrative after the Model 3 cash cow narrative failed. They're trying to convi…
I'm very very skeptical that Waymo is far ahead, if ahead at all. Tesla has already an impressive product on the road that is constantly improving. Waymo could (likely) go the way of vaporware for all we know.
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Elon Musk only controls 20% of Tesla shares, the board can force a sell upon him if the other shareholders agree on one. And I'm not sure why Apple would buy a car company, it's too far of their core business (aka selling computers ranging from phone sized to desktop size). The other car manufacturers are not blind idiots, they are seeing EVs are becoming a thing, but it's also in its early stages. The question for t…
All three of your paragraphs are incorrect.
Well, I guess that explains the Autonomy Day [1] event from just two days ago where they presented themselves as the Pack Leader, when everyone else knows it's Waymo (by far). Quoting user RivieraKid [2]: Take a moment and think about why are they doing this event now. Elon is setting a stage for a capital raise, he's pitching the autonomy narrative after the Model 3 cash cow narrative failed. They're trying to convi…
Am just curious, why does everyone believe that Waymo is way ahead. They have more miles driven, but so does Tesla. Waymo has some incredible guys going after autonomy but they have nothing to show as of yet at the L4 or L5 level. Is it because they are playing it super safe. They don't have any urgency to make money from autonomy unlike Tesla. Are they taking it easy ? Per my understanding, Tesla is tackling autonom…
First, it seems that everyone but Musk is claiming so, so either everyone else is wrong, or Musk is wrong. I find it far more likely that this is just another "funding secured" type of claim, than an actual win. Case in point: see this evaluation [1] from only a year ago, where Tesla was ranked 19 out of 19 (Waymo was #1).
And the timing of the announcement, only two days before delivering really bad financial news... well, see the previous comment.
You provided the second reason yourself: Waymo has some incredible guys going after autonomy, and they've been doing that for a decade now. So whatever shortcut the Tesla people claim to have found, it's (a) either a shortcut nobody else has thought of before, or it's (b) they have thought of it before, and ruled it out. I believe (b) to be far more likely, hence I believe them to be on the wrong path.
Also, contrary to what you say, they do have something to show as of yet. They are operating hundreds of autonomous vehicles in Phoenix.
And yes, they are probably playing it super safe, but that's exactly what you should expect from someone accelerating 1+ tons of metal to lethal speeds, and giving it autonomy.
[1] https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-finishes-last-navigant-resea...
Seasonal 4th to 1st quarter may have been a loss but these numbers stand out to me as being a bit more important. Cars sold: Q1 2019: 63,000 Q1 2018: 29,980 Q1 2017: 25,000 Q1 2016: 14,820 Q1 2015: 10,045 Q1 2014: 6,457 Q1 2013: 4,900 Q1 2012: 0 Revenue Q1 2019: $4.5 billion Q1 2018: $3.4 billion Q1 2017: $2.7 billion Q1 2016: $1.6 billion Q1 2015: $1.1 billion Q1 2014: $713 million Q1 2013: $562 million Q1 2012: $30…
Most of these are at this point bleeding market share to Tesla that they are trying to recover from by launching products that clearly are a lot less competitive and are probably being sold at a loss right now. They are going to be bleeding cash while they sell prematurely launched EVs at a loss and struggle to ramp up production for those for the next decade. Shut down production capacity for ICE vehicles that they can no longer sell because people buy Teslas instead. Write off hybrid product development for which demand seems more limited than they hoped. Write off hydrogen product development that has not been happening either. Etc.
Tesla is of course only part of their problem. There is a lot of stuff coming out of Asia right now that is low cost and full EV. Buses, trucks, small cars, etc.
Their next decade is about surviving multiple rounds of downsizing, consolidation, demand drops for essentially all their existing products, huge capital investments to catch up with Tesla and other new players in the market.
Meanwhile, Tesla has several Gigafactories coming online over the next few years that will improve their production capacity; several new products in the pipeline that will challenge their competitors even more, and business models that extend beyond just consumer EVs including solar panels, batteries to support grid operations, batteries to complement domestic solar installations, etc. In all of these markets their biggest problem seems to be getting enough capital to build the production capacity to serve the demand. The big picture here is rapid growth and dropping cost for the foreseeable future limited only by the amount of available capital.
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Personally; ding ding ding. This is why american MBAs are utter useless garbage.. The asian incumbents in heavy industry are going to own, simply because they are capable and willing to play the long-game. China is pretty much buying all of Africa. They havea 100 year plan. And anyone who isnt aware of that fact, is simply behind the game and already losing. We had a post about KPCB earlier, and good riddance - the a…
This reminds me of the late 1980s when America was on the decline and the Japanese were buying everything and the end was in sight.
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You mean Musk selling his share and putting it into SpaceX? SpaceX laid off 10% this year and their recent attempt to raise money didn't go well.
To be fair, they tried to raise money mostly to fund BFR development, which is a questionable economic investment for people expecting a decent ROI (although it's a fantastic overall future investment for humanity as a whole). If they tried to raise money specifically for micro satellite internet, on the other hand, I think investors would be more favorable.
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Am just curious, why does everyone believe that Waymo is way ahead. They have more miles driven, but so does Tesla. Waymo has some incredible guys going after autonomy but they have nothing to show as of yet at the L4 or L5 level. Is it because they are playing it super safe. They don't have any urgency to make money from autonomy unlike Tesla. Are they taking it easy ? Per my understanding, Tesla is tackling autonom…
Waymo is a technology demo, not a functioning operation that spits out self driving cars by the tens of thousands per quarter. They are many years away from having that. That's fine if they pull it off; it's the way big technology startups are funded. Alphabet is playing the long game here. However, Tesla is talking about making the tens of thousands cars they are shipping per quarter right now autonomous. We'll see…
Waymo last year ordered 20.000 cars from Jaguar Land Rover, then 62.000 cars from Fiat Chrysler, with deliveries apparently starting in 2019 [1].
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/31/business/waymo-chrysler-m...