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US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

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Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#401

Post by dragonwriter »

OmarIsmail wrote: post #20
enraged_camel wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. If you think about it, most species reproduce when resources are abundant, and stop reproducing when resources become scarce. That's basically what is happening to young people here.

It's the opposite with humans. 3rd world/developing countries have extremely high birth rates. The best mechanism for "population control" in people is to improve a population's standard of living.

More precisely, it seems to be to improve the strength of social safety nets (that correlates with standard of living, but also explains places in the developed world where the average standard of living is high by developed world standards but the birthrate is also high for the developed world.)

The reason for this may be that, in the absence of public social safety net, family (and particularly close family) serve as a safety net, and particularly children, once they are able to be productive, can be a kind of safety net against infirmity for their parents.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#402

Post by wmeredith »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #65
cm2012 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Immigrants to the US have the same level of college completion as natives: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/03/key-findings...

Illegal immigrants usually do not (under the table, off the books unskilled labor), and are in the US in large numbers (millions). Not a sleight, just facts.

Source?

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#403

Post by magduf »

dragontamer wrote: post #297
raverbashing wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nigerians are primarily Muslims. More like 50%/50% > What about Indians? Who are usually either Hindu or Muslim? Most are Hindu or Sikh

> Most are Hindu or Sikh Oh right, Pakistan is where the Muslims come from. Apologies, its sometimes hard to remember everything about the world. But yeah, neither of those are Christian. Both are IIRC Polythistic religions, about as different from Christianity as possible. Muslims for example believe in Abraham and the existence of Jesus. Their story is... very different but Allah is clearly the God of Abraham / Yah…

In my observation, religions that are extremely far apart generally get along better than religions that are much closer. Also, polytheistic religions just don't seem to have compatibility problems with other religions. The religions that get along the worst are the Abrahamic ones: Muslims and Jews hate each other, Christians hate Jews (more so in the past), Sunni and Shia Muslims hate each other, and Catholic and Protestant Christians have had many conflicts even in recent history (Ireland).

Of course, part of this could just be physical proximity: these warring groups tend to be neighbors or even in the same places, causing friction. But, for now at least, we have lots of Indians (Sikhs and Hindus) here in the US and don't have the problems with them that we do with others.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#404

Post by wmeredith »

BigChiefSmokem wrote: post #300
nostromo wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the value in large numbers of unskilled workers entering the US every year. With a potentially large wave of automation coming, the US shouldn't straddled itself with lots of unemployable drivers, farm workers, etc. I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example.

You are not in agriculture and manufacturing then. We want to bring back coal mine jobs but why don't those coal miners start picking strawberries then? Neither requires a higher education or barely any education at all.

The coal mining stuff is smoke and mirrors. Arby’s employs more people than the entire coal mining industry.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#405

Post by magduf »

tzahola wrote: post #144
pasbesoin wrote: post #108

My personal, anecdotal observation. This is the continuing legacy of the baby boomers. A counter-point, opposite of their parents, the so-named greatest generation. Come to the height of their careers in the 70's through the 90's. The decades of self. With Michael Douglas's character's "Greed is good!" as a centerpoint. They're where the wealth has gone. Leaving following generations without the security to settle do…

So, what’s the plan when the boomer menace is over in 15-20 years? Where will their wealth go when they die?

>So, what’s the plan when the boomer menace is over in 15-20 years? Where will their wealth go when they die?

China, that's where.

China will become the new world superpower, filling the vacuum left by the US in its decline. That's the legacy that the Boomers have left behind.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#406

Post by krapp »

mmt wrote: post #351
krapp wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Try to imagine. There is no google search to find out how to make children. The closest library is far away and it's not that common to go to school and learn to read. That leaves you with the opinions of the family, the neighbors and the priest, who may not know much either and offer different tales. I have to assume you're trolling, but to be charitable, here[0] is the Wikipedia article on the history of birth con…

> People knew where babies came from way before the internet. I think you missed the GP's primary point. Just because someone in the entire world had the requisite knowledge might mean nothing at all to another someone a mere few hours of travel away, let alone on the other side of the world. That's why written language was such a huge invention[1]. Then the printing press. Then the telegraph, radio, and telephone. F…

Sex and procreation can be found throughout recorded human history, regardless of locale. In mythology (from Zeus boning anything that moved to "be fruitful and multiply" to the Immaculate Conception and numerous creation myths besides), religious teachings regarding sex being for procreation and not mere pleasure, laws governing property rights, inheritance and royal succession, in literature, in plays and songs, in fairy tales and old wives' tales, etc.

For example, here's an article on Samuel Pepys and a sexual manual from 1680 which quite clearly demonstrates that the nature of carnal knowledge was generally known at the time[0]. Along with death and mortal fear, sex and birth comprises one of the archetypal constants of the human experience. It's everywhere. It also happens to be knowledge that's necessary to continue the species, which humans have proven quite good at.

I guarantee that our parents knew how babby was formed, as did their parents, as did their parents, etc. Even our hominid ancestors before the formation of language understood it, because even animals understand it at an instinctive level.

[0]http://theappendix.net/posts/2013/06/this-misterie-of-fuckin...

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#407

Post by dragonwriter »

magduf wrote: post #403
dragontamer wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most are Hindu or Sikh Oh right, Pakistan is where the Muslims come from. Apologies, its sometimes hard to remember everything about the world. But yeah, neither of those are Christian. Both are IIRC Polythistic religions, about as different from Christianity as possible. Muslims for example believe in Abraham and the existence of Jesus. Their story is... very different but Allah is clearly the God of Abraham / Yah…

In my observation, religions that are extremely far apart generally get along better than religions that are much closer. Also, polytheistic religions just don't seem to have compatibility problems with other religions. The religions that get along the worst are the Abrahamic ones: Muslims and Jews hate each other, Christians hate Jews (more so in the past), Sunni and Shia Muslims hate each other, and Catholic and Pr…

> In my observation, religions that are extremely far apart generally get along better than religions that are much closer

This seems to be more true of mutually exclusive religions that are historically geographically close together for an extended period of time than ones which happen merely to be doctrinally similar, and to be more (but certainly not exclusively) true of political conflicts between religious communities rather than theological conflicts.

> But, for now at least, we have lots of Indians (Sikhs and Hindus) here in the US and don't have the problems with them that we do with others

Part of that is because the people who would have problems are still mistaking South Asians with Middle Easterners and also (whether or not they do that) assuming they are Muslim. Give it some time, they’ll get their own targeted hate. (Hinduism already gets some through the Christian anti-yoga movement.)

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#408

Post by Eridrus »

chillacy wrote: post #379
Eridrus wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly the US fertility rate started declining in 2008, and Canada's hit a peak in 2008 and went down from there. Also interesting: China's fertility rate is apparently lower than the US's. https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&...

Not surprising if you know about the One Child policy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

That's what I thought originally, but if you look at the data it doesn't actually line up, chinese fertility rates were already well off their peak by 1979.

Of course, who knows if the chinese data is even accurate.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#409

Post by jdavis703 »

koolba wrote: post #182
jdavis703 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately many areas have outlawed living 10 together in tiny houses and apartments. Boarding houses have become illegal, and their modern equivalent of micro apartments are in danger of becoming illegal [0]. To add a personal story, when I was college we had about 20-30 people living in a medium sized single family home. We were mostly students, but there were a couple of kids, and a grandmother too. Our neighbo…

> To add a personal story, when I was college we had about 20-30 people living in a medium sized single family home. How many bed rooms and how did the actual sleeping work? A "standard" 3-bedroom house would have 7-8 people in it per room (assuming you use the family room as a bedroom too) which means either bunk beds or wall to wall sleeping bags? Also 30 people sharing two bathrooms doesn't sound fun.

The house was sectioned off in to 3 areas. Mine had 6-7 people sharing 6 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. I'm not sure of the layouts in the other sections of the house. But the landlord had definitely divided the home in to as many small rooms as possible.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#410

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #398
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that it's a matter of worldwide standard of living. I wonder if developing nations have an easier time with a young person reaching a comparable standard of living with their parents, and the developed ones have a much larger discrepancy. In a developing nation success might be somewhere to live, and a job. Before someone from north america is "doing well" you need a partner, a 5 bedroom house, two cars…

>Before someone from north america is "doing well" you need a partner, a 5 bedroom house, two cars, two jobs, and a university education. We can't meet our "needs" until much later in our life. If it's what your priorities are you can have a home, cars, max out your 401k and be paying back student loans on a single entry level tech salary. This requires that you put up with a long commute, beater cars, an old house a…

That's exactly what I'm saying - the goalpost for what "doing well" is has moved, we now expect more of ourselves because of the visible relative affluence of our immediately previous generations. We don't see how the baby boomers started, but we see how they are ending, and that's set the goal for our own success.
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