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Tesla CTO: Batteries and Solar Will Lead to Cheap Electricity Within 10 Years

forbes.com

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Re: Tesla CTO: Batteries and Solar Will Lead to Cheap Electricity Within 10 Years

#41

Post by JTon »

adventured wrote: post #19
ohsnap wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counting new rigs/new investment is much better metric, and rig counts have responded to pricing pressure by stopping drilling. Counting current crude is just measuring what happened before the Saudis dropped the prices. Most fracking companies are pretty bloated right now and they have plenty of things they can do to improve returns w/o new tech. But lower gas prices means higher risk - thus less investment.

It's not a better metric. The only metric that matters, is output. The US is producing one million more barrels per day than a year ago. The only thing the reduction in rigs will cause, is slowing down growth. The Saudis weren't the primary cause of the price drop anyway. The US dollar going on its greatest run in decades is what broke the price of oil. The strong dollar also caused the low price of oil in the late 1…

Then why are all the analysts fixated on supply-demand mechanics? Do you have further readings about the correlation between USD and the price of crude? I'm very interested.

Re: Tesla CTO: Batteries and Solar Will Lead to Cheap Electricity Within 10 Years

#42

Post by diafygi »

jerf wrote: post #37
crdoconnor wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>their biggest pain points right now are completely solvable with software. What pain points are those?

"customer acquisition, marketing, distribution, project development, permitting, monitoring, analytics. etc." (I'm not vouching for this, I have no personal experience.)

Yep, you'd be amazed at how much solar work is still done in Excel and on pen and paper.

Re: Tesla CTO: Batteries and Solar Will Lead to Cheap Electricity Within 10 Years

#43

Post by diafygi »

kfk wrote: post #26
diafygi wrote: post #17

I have a startup in solar software, and the big thing that I don't think people here realize is that 64% of the installed cost of solar in the U.S. is soft costs (i.e. not hardware)[1]. The industry is incredibly inefficient when it comes to customer acquisition, marketing, distribution, project development, permitting, monitoring, analytics. etc. There's a huge effort by the DOE[2] and the industry itself[3] to atta…

Cool, I have a friend working here http://www.3megawatt.com in Munich. I had few discussions with him about their analytics solution and the solar industry in this regard - very interesting stuff. It looks like a lot of value for the solar industry would be just in copying existing solutions in other sectors into this one. I mean, analytics and finance (accruals) is a (partially) solved problem in many industries, bu…

You should definitely consider joining them! We aren't going to find enough talent from within the existing energy industry, so we'd love to have people come in from outside.

Re: Tesla CTO: Batteries and Solar Will Lead to Cheap Electricity Within 10 Years

#44

Post by diafygi »

IkmoIkmo wrote: post #39
diafygi wrote: post #17

I have a startup in solar software, and the big thing that I don't think people here realize is that 64% of the installed cost of solar in the U.S. is soft costs (i.e. not hardware)[1]. The industry is incredibly inefficient when it comes to customer acquisition, marketing, distribution, project development, permitting, monitoring, analytics. etc. There's a huge effort by the DOE[2] and the industry itself[3] to atta…

How does it differ from other countries? I've heard Germany's installation costs per watt are about 60% of the US rate, even though they access mostly the same market to procure panels, and that their customer aquisition, marketing costs etc are much lower. I guess some of it has to do with a national feed in tariff that generates a ton of easy inbound leads, but I'd love to hear the subtleties. (what is your startup…

Great question. I'm not sure. Most of the research I've seen on this subject compares the U.S. and Germany.

http://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/german-us-pv-price-ppt.pd...

My startup is UtilityAPI.com.

Re: Tesla CTO: Batteries and Solar Will Lead to Cheap Electricity Within 10 Years

#45

Post by breischl »

adventured wrote: post #19
ohsnap wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counting new rigs/new investment is much better metric, and rig counts have responded to pricing pressure by stopping drilling. Counting current crude is just measuring what happened before the Saudis dropped the prices. Most fracking companies are pretty bloated right now and they have plenty of things they can do to improve returns w/o new tech. But lower gas prices means higher risk - thus less investment.

It's not a better metric. The only metric that matters, is output. The US is producing one million more barrels per day than a year ago. The only thing the reduction in rigs will cause, is slowing down growth. The Saudis weren't the primary cause of the price drop anyway. The US dollar going on its greatest run in decades is what broke the price of oil. The strong dollar also caused the low price of oil in the late 1…

Drilling a well takes a long time, and it typically is not worth stopping part way. So it takes a long time for output to respond to price signals.

Most of the increased capacity is due to wells that were started before the prices dropped. You'll see the output dropping once those wells start tapering off, and no new ones are coming online to keep up the supply.

Re: Tesla CTO: Batteries and Solar Will Lead to Cheap Electricity Within 10 Years

#46

Post by fredkbloggs »

dharma1 wrote: post #27

Anyone done a DIY solar installation recently? any links/pointers? What's the cheapest way to put this together? Are microinverters worth it? I am thinking of starting with a few 250w panels on my outhouse

You need to start by understanding your needs. What are you going to use the power for? Is this a year-round or seasonal application? What is your climate like? Are your rooftops structurally suitable and do they face the equator? If not, what land is available, what direction does it face, and is it shade-free? Do you also have other sources of electricity; if so, what are they? Do you plan to keep/expand/get rid of them? Will your PV installation be tied into a larger electrical system (and/or the grid) or provide standalone power for specific loads? How much power will you need, and how will your usage be distributed throughout the day/year? Are permits and/or inspections required where you live? If so, which parts will you DIY vs. hire out, and what research, supplies, tools, and materials will be required to do the work in a way that will pass inspection?

Once you have some answers there, you can start figuring out what kind of equipment could meet your needs and pricing it out. "I want solar!" is not a constructive way to look at anything; it's a great way to waste a bunch of money on something that will end up not giving you what you want/need. Asking here is not the way to get this done; realistically you have at least several dozen hours of research ahead of you, much more if you are off-grid or really want to do every piece of the work yourself.

Re: Tesla CTO: Batteries and Solar Will Lead to Cheap Electricity Within 10 Years

#47

Post by fredkbloggs »

mtrimpe wrote: post #30
dharma1 wrote: post #27

Anyone done a DIY solar installation recently? any links/pointers? What's the cheapest way to put this together? Are microinverters worth it? I am thinking of starting with a few 250w panels on my outhouse

No particular tips on how to do it; but at least make sure you don't put too many in serial if you're at all concerned about fire safety. My father was once involved in a big lawsuit over fires caused by faulty junction boxes and he swore he'd never let the total wattage exceed say 500, max 800, or so watts for panels installed on a house. After all; it only takes a single slightly faulty contact and you essentially…

More generally, you need to be aware of the ratings and proper installation methods for the equipment and materials you are using. Nearly all PV modules today are rated for a 600V system voltage, as are most combiner boxes and common wire types. Not all breakers are, though! Higher voltage requires higher-rated and sometimes more expensive equipment as well as more careful work, but it allows longer wire runs with less copper which saves money, and it may enable you to use more efficient equipment as well. All depends on what you're trying to accomplish. If you aren't comfortable doing a 600V (or 300V, or 150V) wiring job, you need to weigh the disadvantages of lower system voltages (less flexible, more costly to wire, limited options for batteries and other equipment) against the cost of hiring someone qualified to do the work.

I don't subscribe to the idea that a rooftop system should be limited to 800W. An 800W system is not viable for grid-tied use (with modern modules you're looking at 3 modules in series which will not even give you 120V much less the required 340 or 480 to do proper grid-tied installation), and will not be cost-effective for an off-grid application unless you have a very small house, minimal power needs, and have a sunny climate year-round.

Know your needs. Know your abilities. Know your equipment. Safety first should not be in conflict with building a cost-effective system that meets your needs; if you can't figure out how to do so properly, hire someone who knows!

Re: Tesla CTO: Batteries and Solar Will Lead to Cheap Electricity Within 10 Years

#48

Post by coryrc »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #11

Its an interesting proposition, although I'm not sure that you can really make that leap with just solar, wind, and batteries. There is a lot of base load to make up for. I could see however individual houses become independent of the grid. And that will have tremendous benefits when things like storms hit, no longer knocking out power to residents, simply factories and office buildings and street lights. Presumably…

Almost none of the solar installations today can run with the grid down. Almost all are grid-tie because it is thousands of dollars cheaper.

Re: Tesla CTO: Batteries and Solar Will Lead to Cheap Electricity Within 10 Years

#49

Post by copsarebastards »

sitkack wrote: post #3

Utility grade solar already has a less then 8 year payback. For profit companies are setting up money making solar plants in the SW right now. Solar here. I applaud the Saudis for shutting off fracking in US. It was kinda like a fever that cleared the system of pathogens.

I'm not entirely sure about that being the Saudi's move. I suspect they cut a deal with the US to destabilize the Russian economy (remember that at the time when a lot of the big changes were being implemented by Saudi Arabia, Russia was using oil money to fund some aggressive moves in the ex-Soviet bloc). Fracking cutbacks in the US may have been one of the things the US traded for that.

Re: Tesla CTO: Batteries and Solar Will Lead to Cheap Electricity Within 10 Years

#50

Post by spathi_fwiffo »

diafygi wrote: post #42
jerf wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"customer acquisition, marketing, distribution, project development, permitting, monitoring, analytics. etc." (I'm not vouching for this, I have no personal experience.)

Yep, you'd be amazed at how much solar work is still done in Excel and on pen and paper.

I imagine most contractors for all forms of construction are still working on paper or in spreadsheets. What makes solar so different that some organizational software will slash consumer prices? I guess from a sales, customer acquisition, permitting point of view at least.

I guess if we are talking advanced mathematics to pick out optimal installation patterns and angles (for fixed position panels), maybe this is where the software would be useful.

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