41–50 of 54 posts
While watching that let's not forget that at least in Europe we also have "ghost cities".
I never heard of any... example?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2102074/Spain-haunte...
although things seem to be improving there:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/350b9c8c-43f4-11e4-8abd-00144feabd...
isn't all this just a matter of time? https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/guest-post-5-c... http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/04/21/the-myth-of...
And it's just a matter of time yet that these cities become the equivalent of America's hated suburbs. Cities like Greenbelt, MD, and Levittown, NY - planned large communities where everyone can enjoy a picket fence and a driveway. Soon, perhaps, china, too, will have a director that makes a film about the ennui of living in a planned community prominently featuring as a main character a floating plastic bag.
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That sounds fine, if it all works out as planned. China is about to become the most indebted nation. At the rapid pace they're accumulating debt, that should happen within the next few years. They've spent wildly to keep the building spree going; even now their real estate market is crashing, it has been falling for a year. It begs a simple question: how many more people can China transition out of old China's povert…
Excellent comment. China overdid their stimulus package in 2008 because of the need to keep the jobs coming. If would have been much better for them if they had used 2008 to slow the growth rhythm to something sustainable (4 to 5%). I think they are now headed to a very difficult transition, probably Japanese-style, because of so much debt.
isn't all this just a matter of time? https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/guest-post-5-c... http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/04/21/the-myth-of...
How much emotion can you really capture with a picture of ordinary buildings...just without people walking by. I'm sure there are people there too and the photographers just wait for a good moment when no one is walking/driving by to snap the photo. (Some of the photos from this article even have cars and people there too...)
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It only makes sense if the backup cities are already owned by the government. If populating those cities post-disaster requires government appropriation of an entire city's worth of private real estate assets, the resulting financial and political instability could well dwarf anything wrought by the original disaster.
So you think that the appropriation of unused real estate is worse than whatever disaster led to the mass exodus of a population from a major city. Interesting, but that is not how I think.
There have been other stories of "ghost towns" which eventually filled up with people. Perhaps this is just one of those. I always find it fascinating but I also note that a major disaster in a city like Beijing and there is already a bunch of places to house people post disaster. I don't know if anyone else thinks about it in that way but from a civil defense perspective it seems interesting to have "back up" cities…
It only makes sense if the backup cities are already owned by the government. If populating those cities post-disaster requires government appropriation of an entire city's worth of private real estate assets, the resulting financial and political instability could well dwarf anything wrought by the original disaster.
"Typical housing prices in Kangbashi have fallen from $1,100 to $470 per square foot, over the last five years alone." Why are the prices so high? Obviously nobody wants to pay $500k - $1 million for a 1,000 sqft. apartment in a Chinese ghost town.
> Why are the prices so high? Prices skyrocketed due to housing as an investment. It's a very peculiar thing but basically it was a self-fulfilling prophecy. Houses go from $100k to $120k in two years? Alright well let's buy a house as an investment on a shitty salary, it's free money. Until everyone said that, and the rate of prices going up kept increasing, and kept reinforcing the investment opportunity myth. Basi…
If wages keep growing they could catch up to the house prices somewhat.
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> Why are the prices so high? Prices skyrocketed due to housing as an investment. It's a very peculiar thing but basically it was a self-fulfilling prophecy. Houses go from $100k to $120k in two years? Alright well let's buy a house as an investment on a shitty salary, it's free money. Until everyone said that, and the rate of prices going up kept increasing, and kept reinforcing the investment opportunity myth. Basi…
>homes worth $200 - 400k, for Chinese who have a $7k GDP If wages keep growing they could catch up to the house prices somewhat.
Meanwhile here in the Netherlands a typical house will set you back $250k but the per capita gdp is $50k. Of course the Netherlands is wealthier, but you'd think its housing prices would reflect that and show a similar income/housing ratio, roughly speaking, but it's just completely different.
Housing is in a huge bubble and there's a crazy gap between wages and housing in China. If wages continue to grow while houses don't, sure... but that'd also mean people will sell their homes because they're no good as an investment anymore, which pops the bubble, and that'll create a ton of debt as people are stuck with $200k mortgages on a home worth $100k or less, that's structurally so unsound it'll be demolished within 20-30 years.
My outlook is pretty pessimistic tbh. Although it does seem to be a problem confined to particular areas, that must be said.
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>homes worth $200 - 400k, for Chinese who have a $7k GDP If wages keep growing they could catch up to the house prices somewhat.
Sure, assuming housing prices don't continue to grow. But lending rates in China are about 6% or so, just the interest alone on a $200k mortgage is absolutely insane for an ordinary Chinese person. It's almost twice the annual gdp per capita. Meanwhile here in the Netherlands a typical house will set you back $250k but the per capita gdp is $50k. Of course the Netherlands is wealthier, but you'd think its housing pri…
"house prices can drop as quickly as they rise. Vietnam's did with a vengeance in late 2010 as the economy slipped. Prices are down by 50 per cent in some parts of the country, and no one is predicting a rebound. Banks are weighed down with bad debt, much of it secured against property..."
Economic growth dropped from about 7% nationally to about 5% and maybe 0% in Saigon but is now back to growing 7%. Property in the overpriced new builds is still down 50% or so but showing signs of recovery - life goes on indeed it's kind of booming just now after being pretty quite a couple of years back. I imagine China will be similar.