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The joyless world of data-driven startups

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Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#41

Post by HillRat »

baddox wrote: post #7

> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years. > Data-driven journalism gave us Buzzfeed > Data-driven music gave us X-Factor and Pop Idol > Data-driven movies gave us 25 Hollywood sequels planned for this year > Data-driven education gave us Key Performance Indicators and Teaching to the test These first three examples ar…

Back in the '90s, I met a guy who made quite a bit of money off specialized construction projects in the developing world. He invested a fair amount of that into a rather popular religious children's series, doing very well in the process. Unfortunately, this led him to assume that he was "in the entertainment business."

He hired a company to research the direct-to-video market and tell him what types of product had the best return per dollar. After a lot of time and money, they came back with a report that said, in essence, that the two top performers in the DTV space were science fiction and vampire horror.

The research was sound. The data were irrefutable. He immediately sank millions of dollars into producing a direct-to-video trilogy about vampires from space.

A few years later, I saw him running one of those hot dog concessions outside a Home Depot.[1]

The commonplace version of this are SMB executives who, primed by HBR articles about data-driven decisionmaking, ascribe magical powers to simple linear regressions, believe that a single model can tell them exactly how to unvaryingly run heterogeneous business lines, think overfit just means you can make the model even better, and try to force-feed explanatory variables down the throats of their stats consultants. Analytics is a powerful and necessary toolset, but it's become harder to keep the c-suite from spiking the sauce.

[1] Hell of a work ethic, though. Not long after that he had a few dozen of those carts operating throughout the region. Never did see him again, but you've got to respect a guy who doesn't understand the meaning of "abject failure."

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#42

Post by adrusi »

baddox wrote: post #7

> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years. > Data-driven journalism gave us Buzzfeed > Data-driven music gave us X-Factor and Pop Idol > Data-driven movies gave us 25 Hollywood sequels planned for this year > Data-driven education gave us Key Performance Indicators and Teaching to the test These first three examples ar…

The fact that they're successful is selection bias. Of course the examples he give will be successful, because otherwise they would be obscure and readers wouldn't no what he was talking about.

But while he argues that focusing on data is probably not the most effective way of running a startup, the main point of the article is stated in the title: that even if a data-driven startup is successful, it'll have no character.

Obviously not every startup needs character, so take from that what you will.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#43

Post by saraid216 »

baddox wrote: post #7

> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years. > Data-driven journalism gave us Buzzfeed > Data-driven music gave us X-Factor and Pop Idol > Data-driven movies gave us 25 Hollywood sequels planned for this year > Data-driven education gave us Key Performance Indicators and Teaching to the test These first three examples ar…

People complain about the tyranny of the mob, and then they obey it. Capitalism.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#44

Post by pbreit »

>> Everyone tells early stage startups to use data for big strategic decisions.

This is not even remotely true in my experience working at and advising startups. Sure, data is important, but more so for tactical matters like ad performance and A/B testing. Big strategic decisions typically employ far less data relatively, pretty much definitionally since no data exists for "big strategic decisions".

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#45

Post by api »

dxbydt wrote: post #27
baddox wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The failure is the failure to generate novelty or adequately explore alternatives. Perhaps you value novelty more than the average person. What might not be "adequate" for you might very well be adequate for a huge portion of people. Throughout this comment you mention several potential goals of content producers (being memorable, advancing the art, changing someone's life, etc.), but you make no argument for why t…

> Perhaps you value novelty... > What might not be "adequate" for you... It isn't about what he values versus what you value. What the author complains about are well known problems with recommendation engines. Take the naive reco algo - "You just bought a 50 inch Philips TV. You might also like - 50 inch Sony TV, 50 inch LG TV, 50 inch Samsung TV, 50 inch ..." - See the problem ? I already bought my fucking TV, you…

Exactly. I don't want what I already have. Give me what I don't have, or better yet something so creative I don't even know I want it yet.

But that's hard, while stupid hill climbers and infinite monkey machines are easy. It will keep working until people tire of it, which judging from the abysmal sales in music is happening. Won't be long before people also stop going to see Batman Redone.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#46

Post by peterburkimsher »

I'm not afraid of computers acting like people (AI). I'm very worried about people acting like computers.

Every circuit, every program is based on a principle: comparators (analogue) = NAND (digital) = if statements (software). Machines choose their answer by taking a huge amount of information, and sorting it. By design, this leads to some monstrous conclusions. For example, eugenics might be logically efficient, but it is morally abhorrent.

Taking risks, making mistakes: these are not flaws, they are the very essence of being human.

Test yourself! I guess that everyone on here is very rational (as I am). I only discovered this problem in my character after a conversation with an artist, a good friend from high school. She makes all her decisions based on the heart, rather than the mind. Try to do something totally random! When things make no logical sense, the emotions wake up again. You'll "feel" again. It doesn't matter if that's a good or bad feeling - acting like a machine makes you feel nothing at all. A machine can defend every action it takes, because it's never wrong. But machines can't apologise.

There will be data-driven businesses. They're not actually run by humans (whatever the management says), they're run by machines. Those companies could ultimately be fully automated away. It's far better, as a human, to be creative (even if the most creative thing you can do, like me, is teaching machines how to talk to other machines).

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#47

Post by coldtea »

baddox wrote: post #7

> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years. > Data-driven journalism gave us Buzzfeed > Data-driven music gave us X-Factor and Pop Idol > Data-driven movies gave us 25 Hollywood sequels planned for this year > Data-driven education gave us Key Performance Indicators and Teaching to the test These first three examples ar…

>These first three examples are awful examples. A ton of people love all of those things.

So what? A ton of people loved smoking cigarettes, segregation, creationism, and tons of other BS stuff too.

The idea about culture is also making value judgements, not just bending over to whatever "people like" as if mere enjoyment is the be all end all of arguments.

Especially since what people "like" is not the objective, "own choice", we make it to be, but can be manipulated by advertising, conditioning, lack (or less coverage) of alternatives and finally lack of education.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#48

Post by bgilroy26 »

curiously wrote: post #31

This reminds me of Warren Buffet's approach to investing. It's better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. I fear that all we are doing with data is figuring out a precise way to fail instead of focusing on being right. "But fail often and fast" the cliche goes, but what about the opposite, it should be true by simple negation of logic right? "Win seldomly and slow", then suddenly collecting data on every…

Business may proceed as usual: fearful managers might use data to make their jobs more secure, savvy managers might use data to move fast and break things.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#49

Post by soup10 »

peterburkimsher wrote: post #46

I'm not afraid of computers acting like people (AI). I'm very worried about people acting like computers. Every circuit, every program is based on a principle: comparators (analogue) = NAND (digital) = if statements (software). Machines choose their answer by taking a huge amount of information, and sorting it. By design, this leads to some monstrous conclusions. For example, eugenics might be logically efficient, bu…

This oversimplifies AI. The human brain is based on simple principles as well. The mechanisms of cells and neurons and neurotransmitters are not hard to understand in isolation. There is no principle difference between an AI that functions on top of millions of silicon circuits and the human brain which functions on top of millions of biological circuits.

While machines are presently lacking in certain capabilities such as empathy and conceptualization, they are still very useful as tools and extensions of the human brain as long as the limitations and pitfalls are understood.

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