One thing I'd have liked to ask if I hadn't missed the window of opportunity would be regarding his desire to go to Mars himself. I have often wondered about the psychological effects of being effectively stranded on a barren, lifeless planet potentially for the rest of your life. On Earth, we can "get away from it all" and go to the country, go camping near a nice stream, listen to birds sing, go for a swim in the o…
Throughout history men have probably lived through worse conditions, either while being prisoners of war, stranded on a desert island and whatnot. The way to cope with such harsh conditions is, I suppose, always the same : hope of escaping and returning home.
Elon Musk AMA
41–50 of 161 posts
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#42I found his comment regarding learning to be the most insightful. It is a more developed explanation of what I have found to be an effective strategy for me: > One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to. Without th…
If you are one of the outliers (as you have said you are) you would have figured this all out a long time ago, even if you cannot articulate it.
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#43Does anyone know why Musk believes so strongly that robot overlords are a serious threat? I don't understand how wasting any time worrying about AI taking over, Terminator-style, is productive. We're not going to be developing Strong AI any time soon, so it's simply not a problem worth worrying about. And if we do, the Strong AI won't be in any position to "take over." It probably won't even want to take over. That's…
http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-N...
It's the closest approximation to a consensus statement / catalog of arguments by folks who take this position (although of course there is a whole spectrum of opinions). It also appears to be the book that convinced Musk that this is worth worrying about.
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#44Does anyone know why Musk believes so strongly that robot overlords are a serious threat? I don't understand how wasting any time worrying about AI taking over, Terminator-style, is productive. We're not going to be developing Strong AI any time soon, so it's simply not a problem worth worrying about. And if we do, the Strong AI won't be in any position to "take over." It probably won't even want to take over. That's…
There are reason to be worried that prescind from that.
Consider the Paperclip Maximizer[0] example: we build an AI with the sole task of producing paperclips, and it ends up destroying the human race.
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#45I found his comment regarding learning to be the most insightful. It is a more developed explanation of what I have found to be an effective strategy for me: > One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to. Without th…
- (if you went to college) Did you have moments when the different courses connected? I think when people are poorly educated in college, it's because of this unfortunately common experience: they learn a bunch of specialized and disconnected subjects, never relate them to anything in their lives, and then forget them all.
I remember the subjects in CS/Math/EE starting to connect more and more around junior year, and I liked that feeling of a light bulb going on. You have to make a bit of extra effort. I did some little experiments outside class. I remember writing Matlab program (an "engineering" tool) to do some experiments in non-Euclidean geometry (pure math).
Of course there are some subjects that never connected, and I forgot those things.
When you have that semantic network, it lets you evaluate new ideas and designs more quickly. You see which low level principles come into play from the high level variables.
- (if you are a programmer) I think there's a pretty clear "semantic tree" in computing: from computer architecture, to OS, to programming language, etc.
So the test is: If you are generally satisfied with how computers/phones/etc. work, then I would humbly suggest that your semantic tree of computers isn't very well fleshed out :) I think any good programmer should see lots of areas where the status quo is just a result of path dependence and not actual any design principle.
When you have a good knowledge of all levels of the stack, then you can be creative. For example, I'm looking at Xen right now, and it has dawned on me that paravirtualization is a great idea (or perhaps great hack).
The related Mirage OS / unikernel line of research is another great example of connecting all the dots, and coloring outside the normal lines. 99% of programming jobs are basically coloring within the lines, where it doesn't matter if you have developed this semantic tree or not.
Somewhat related: there were some recent threads about organizing personal information, and I wrote about using a Wiki: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8753599
Some people talked about using a journal to record thoughts or knowledge, but my point was that hyperlinks literally model the relationships in your head, and thus are superior for information organization / recall.
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#46I found his comment regarding learning to be the most insightful. It is a more developed explanation of what I have found to be an effective strategy for me: > One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to. Without th…
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#47I found his comment regarding learning to be the most insightful. It is a more developed explanation of what I have found to be an effective strategy for me: > One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to. Without th…
That quote is basically how I learn. I know concepts, not facts and recreate the facts as I need them. That being said, it's definitely not how everyone learns and I would classify it as bad advice: schools have the correct learning strategy for the vast majority of the human race, so stick to that. If you are one of the outliers (as you have said you are) you would have figured this all out a long time ago, even if…
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#48Does anyone know why Musk believes so strongly that robot overlords are a serious threat? I don't understand how wasting any time worrying about AI taking over, Terminator-style, is productive. We're not going to be developing Strong AI any time soon, so it's simply not a problem worth worrying about. And if we do, the Strong AI won't be in any position to "take over." It probably won't even want to take over. That's…
As far as I can tell, you have two main objections to prioritizing worrying about Strong AI: 1) Strong AI is very far away, so no use worrying about it yet. 2) Strong AI if developed will not be likely to take over. to which I would counterpoint with: 1) Sure, but when it happens, it will only happen once and thereafter will likely be out of our hands and control. Thinking about the groundwork that needs to go into s…
Pigs are also intelligent, but they never dominated humans because they don't have / cannot use guns.
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
That quote is basically how I learn. I know concepts, not facts and recreate the facts as I need them. That being said, it's definitely not how everyone learns and I would classify it as bad advice: schools have the correct learning strategy for the vast majority of the human race, so stick to that. If you are one of the outliers (as you have said you are) you would have figured this all out a long time ago, even if…
Schools massively vary in learning strategies though. Saying to stick to schools rather than teaching yourself, as a learning strategy, is a bit like saying to stick to food from shops rather than trying to grow your own, as an eating strategy.
What you say does make sense.
Re: Elon Musk AMA
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
As far as I can tell, you have two main objections to prioritizing worrying about Strong AI: 1) Strong AI is very far away, so no use worrying about it yet. 2) Strong AI if developed will not be likely to take over. to which I would counterpoint with: 1) Sure, but when it happens, it will only happen once and thereafter will likely be out of our hands and control. Thinking about the groundwork that needs to go into s…
I still don't buy the doom scenario. There is so much more to world domination than just intelligence... like having the proper weapons. See https://what-if.xkcd.com/5/ Pigs are also intelligent, but they never dominated humans because they don't have / cannot use guns.
We are looking a future where we'll have armed AI e.g.:
http://motherboard.vice.com/en_uk/blog/the-pentagons-vision-...
That said, even without weapons, a Strong AI could probably just manipulate humans into self destructing. Given the amount of effort going into machine learning to convince humans to buy things, I suspect it won't be much of a stretch for a Strong AI to switch to more nefarious objectives.