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The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

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Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#41

Post by baddox »

IvyMike wrote: post #38

I had a discussion with a friend, and he pointed out that Malaria infects something like 200 million people a year in Africa, and kills around half a million. It's brutal. So this new paper is projecting that Ebola deaths in Africa will be about as common as Malaria deaths. I guess I'm trying to draw any conclusions or imply anything here other than life in Africa is pretty freakin' tough.

> So this new paper is projecting that Ebola deaths in Africa will be about as common as Malaria deaths.

Unless the diseases start "competing" with each other. You can't really die of both. I don't know if the demographics of the two diseases overlap enough that this might happen.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#43

Post by s4sharpie »

joe_the_user wrote: post #9
s4sharpie wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are massive global political ramifications that restrict the ability of those countries that do want to make a difference. As the article refers to, it is ultimately the UN that has the powers to essentially trample on a country's sovereignty (that is what you need to do to make a difference). The UN has been called a toothless tiger in many respects - this is another example where they can and should take a mo…

I am not sure what relation your (or the article's) talk of trampling sovereignty has to do with the present situation on the ground. The articles I read describe the problematic issues being; a lack of running water in existing clinics, a lack of medical supplies, a lack of clinics and notably a lack of food everywhere - patients are escaping isolation in efforts to find food. Liberian officials have pleaded for hel…

The article references having burial specialists. This would require certain people having the right to take deceased corpses and burying without regard for the family/tribal/religious requests/requirements etc. This would at the very least be seen as impinging on the rights of the family, it would likely need armed support. If these burial specialists were say American, they would NOT be deployed without American armed support. Having American armed support (most likely the army) on the ground supporting people who are likely to be impinging on perceived rights will be viewed as trampling sovereignty.

Australia and the Netherlands had a similar issue with the downing of the Malaysian Airliner in Ukraine. In this case, the Ukrainian government had to pass legislation to allow armed Australian and Dutch military to support inspectors. They were just 'inspecting', not creating forced closures of specific areas, forcing burials, witholding care, etc all under significant armed guards.

The present situation on the ground (and the lack of 3rd party government level interaction) is largely a result of weak leadership by the UN. The better question is why the UN hasn't taken ownership of the outbreak?

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#44

Post by nostromo »

aaron695 wrote: post #17

I find it interesting that people worry about Ebola going airborne but not something like AIDS. I guess there's a biological reason....

Because Ebola has already been shown to be transmissible via the air, but only in other species.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3498927/

> Piglets [with Ebola] were transferred to the room housing macaques in an open inaccessible cage system. All macaques became infected.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#45

Post by Pxtl »

rst wrote: post #35
pyre wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait a minute, when was the last time that the stomach flu was an epidemic?

The last flu epidemic with a major death toll was the pandemic of 1918, which is estimated to have killed more people than World War I. A less deadly version of the same strain was officially listed as an epidemic in 2009.

Stomache flu, which is the symptom gastroenteritis, is unrelated to influenza. It's a misnomer. So the Spanish Flu is not a good example here.

And to the point, we've never successfully "beat" GI because the stakes were never this high.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#46

Post by gizmo686 »

IvyMike wrote: post #38

I had a discussion with a friend, and he pointed out that Malaria infects something like 200 million people a year in Africa, and kills around half a million. It's brutal. So this new paper is projecting that Ebola deaths in Africa will be about as common as Malaria deaths. I guess I'm trying to draw any conclusions or imply anything here other than life in Africa is pretty freakin' tough.

The two main differences I see are: 1) The Ebola death rate is still increasing, which makes it scarier that Malaria, which has a relativly stable death rate. 2) Malaria (being tied to mosquitoes) is inherently a regional disease. Ebola has much more potential to spread to other regions.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#47

Post by [deleted] »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #23

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

[deleted]

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#48

Post by davesque »

maxerickson wrote: post #26
ChuckMcM wrote: post #23

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

This episode of Frontline is informative as to the situation: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/ebola-outbreak/

Yeah...it's heart breaking. One of the people interviewed in that episode died after it was filmed. And, of course, there will be thousands more like him.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#50

Post by wyager »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #23

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

I agree that invasion is wrong, but why isn't a large-scale quarantine viable? It's not like you have to lock everyone in; you just allow those who are willing to be subjected to medical treatment passage, and deny passage to anyone else. Seems like it could help those who wish to be helped while not infringing on the right of the superstitious to reject medical treatment.
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