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RedHat requests Russian partners to suspend projects under U.S. sanctions

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Re: RedHat requests Russian partners to suspend projects under U.S. sanctions

#41
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was a pretty funny comment and I know its ironic, but still it is useful to point out that RedHat has a lot of products, including Middle-ware and cloud solutions that these partners resell for good money. Since Russian business is buying them, it does find them useful and thus sanctions are biting someone. Food for thought - what are the implications for Russian big-business of being forced out of the global cl…

The implications are the same as when Google pulled out of China. That is, native Russian services will overtake US competitors, and with government backing, the US companies will be unable to respond or compete. This policy, while I suspect it will hurt Russia in the short term, will ultimately only benefit domestic Russian corporations while hurting American ones. We saw this happen with Google/Baidu. Before Google…

Before Google pulled out of China, Baidu had 64% of the search market, that increased to 70% after Google's pullout.

Baidu had already won in China before Google's pullout. The pullout was just a PR move.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405274870399930...

Re: RedHat requests Russian partners to suspend projects under U.S. sanctions

#42
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The implications are the same as when Google pulled out of China. That is, native Russian services will overtake US competitors, and with government backing, the US companies will be unable to respond or compete. This policy, while I suspect it will hurt Russia in the short term, will ultimately only benefit domestic Russian corporations while hurting American ones. We saw this happen with Google/Baidu. Before Google…

Before Google pulled out of China, Baidu had 64% of the search market, that increased to 70% after Google's pullout. Baidu had already won in China before Google's pullout. The pullout was just a PR move. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405274870399930...

Interesting. I had not seen that stat. Any idea how they were able to grow their market share so quickly? Obviously the government subsidies gave them the requisite funding, but what was making consumers choose Baidu over Google even before China started crippling Google?

Re: RedHat requests Russian partners to suspend projects under U.S. sanctions

#43
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was a pretty funny comment and I know its ironic, but still it is useful to point out that RedHat has a lot of products, including Middle-ware and cloud solutions that these partners resell for good money. Since Russian business is buying them, it does find them useful and thus sanctions are biting someone. Food for thought - what are the implications for Russian big-business of being forced out of the global cl…

For big business? Nil. Big business doesn't need 3rd party cloud services other than as something to sell to offset their own infrastructure investment. As to who these sanctions are biting. Sanctions always bite someone, but rarely do they hurt leaders. I think often they can help extend a regime's grip because it plays into propaganda. Also, if sanctions were imposed generally for dicking about in other countries o…

I am also tremendously curious as to Putin's geopolitical ambitions. He controls a populace that loves him (Putin has very high approval ratings within Russia, I forget the exact numbers), and huge swaths of land and natural resources. He also has effectively unlimited term length, and controls a propaganda machine so powerful it rivals even that of the United States (/snark). All these factors make for a good recipe for going to war.

So why would he want to go to war? Energy. Currently, the Russian oil industry contributes massively to Russian GDP, as it's a net exporter of oil that has always controlled massive swaths of oil-rich land. BUT, in the past couple years, Shale Gas has risen as a viable alternative energy source. The US has so much shale gas that it will be a net energy exporter by 2020, and natural gas prices in the EU are plummeting because of this. Thus, EU energy companies are turning to natural gas sources -- namely, the US -- for their energy, and reducing their dependence on imported Russian oil.

Putin sees the writing on the wall, and he knows that one of Russia's primary income sources is dwindling, as is his stack of bargaining chips along with it. He needs to find a replacement for this income, fast.

According to Wikipedia [1], Ukraine has the 3rd most known Shale deposits of any country. I suspect it's no coincidence that Putin is charging into Ukraine, a country with a promising energy future, at a time when demand for his oil reserves is dwindling.

If I'm correct, and Putin's ultimate motive is the shale gas reserves in Ukraine, this is at least encouraging because it means he will likely stop after taking Ukraine. That may seem bad, but you can't really fault him for that logic, and a lot of Ukrainians seem to support Putin, so it doesn't seem like something the US should put too much effort into stopping.

There are a lot of massive geopolitical shifts happening in the next decade. The US becoming a net energy exporter will have effects on the Middle East, Russia, and other BRICS. Simultaneously, the BRIC countries are opening their own IMF competitor to reduce their dependence on the Petrodollar. And while all this is happening, China is building up its military, Russia is isolating itself, and the US is pumping fodder after fodder into its anti-BRIC propaganda machine.

The next decade looks like one that will be very unstable, and I suspect it will mark the beginning of the next major war. Scary time.

[1] http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_gas_by_country

Re: RedHat requests Russian partners to suspend projects under U.S. sanctions

#44
post #16

Starting a tech company in the US is looking like a less and less attractive prospect. This is doubly true if the company focuses on security/privacy of its users.

Or you know - Russia could stop meddling in Ukrainian affairs, stop shipping arms across the border, etc. FYI: it isn't right when we do it either.

> Or you know - Russia could stop meddling in Ukrainian affairs

What I said has literally nothing to do with Russia or Ukraine. I'm talking about things the U.S. Government does, even domestically.

Re: RedHat requests Russian partners to suspend projects under U.S. sanctions

#45
post #16

Starting a tech company in the US is looking like a less and less attractive prospect. This is doubly true if the company focuses on security/privacy of its users.

I'd add being a US citizen is starting is looking like a less and less attractive prospect.

Re: RedHat requests Russian partners to suspend projects under U.S. sanctions

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For big business? Nil. Big business doesn't need 3rd party cloud services other than as something to sell to offset their own infrastructure investment. As to who these sanctions are biting. Sanctions always bite someone, but rarely do they hurt leaders. I think often they can help extend a regime's grip because it plays into propaganda. Also, if sanctions were imposed generally for dicking about in other countries o…

I am also tremendously curious as to Putin's geopolitical ambitions. He controls a populace that loves him (Putin has very high approval ratings within Russia, I forget the exact numbers), and huge swaths of land and natural resources. He also has effectively unlimited term length, and controls a propaganda machine so powerful it rivals even that of the United States (/snark). All these factors make for a good recipe…

Some things to consider in all this:

In March 2011 solar module cost of production was predicted to hit 50c per watt in 2016. http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/03/16/sm...

Solar module purchase price is now at an average of 36 cents per watt. http://www.webcitation.org/6QcjhW4C9

Oh, and much of that shale seems to be a lot less productive than was claimed. http://www.industrialinfo.com/news/abstract.jsp?newsitemID=2...

And there's those neat sounding Ryden batteries and folk like lightsail waiting in the wings. http://powerjapanplus.com/ http://www.lightsail.com/

Energy politics are going to change, and when they do it will be very fast.

If those Ryden things are anything like as promised, throw all your money at organic cotton and by extension, anything to do with cleaning lots of water. IMHO, the solar is in a race to the bottom, it is the storage that will make the real money.

There might be a world war over oil and gas, but if there is it will be through inertia more than necessity and the longer we manage to hold off, the less likely it becomes.

Politically though, keep an eye on Turkey. It is the canary in the coal mine at the moment.

Re: RedHat requests Russian partners to suspend projects under U.S. sanctions

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For big business? Nil. Big business doesn't need 3rd party cloud services other than as something to sell to offset their own infrastructure investment. As to who these sanctions are biting. Sanctions always bite someone, but rarely do they hurt leaders. I think often they can help extend a regime's grip because it plays into propaganda. Also, if sanctions were imposed generally for dicking about in other countries o…

I am also tremendously curious as to Putin's geopolitical ambitions. He controls a populace that loves him (Putin has very high approval ratings within Russia, I forget the exact numbers), and huge swaths of land and natural resources. He also has effectively unlimited term length, and controls a propaganda machine so powerful it rivals even that of the United States (/snark). All these factors make for a good recipe…

Ukraine has the 3rd most shale gas reserves in Europe, not all of world. There are countries with much more reserves than Ukraine, Russia included. So no, if Putin is trying to start a war it is not because of Ukraine's shale reserves. But if you are adamant that is is Putin who is the one doing most of the instigating here than there are many arguments to be made against that seemingly popular view.

Re: RedHat requests Russian partners to suspend projects under U.S. sanctions

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am also tremendously curious as to Putin's geopolitical ambitions. He controls a populace that loves him (Putin has very high approval ratings within Russia, I forget the exact numbers), and huge swaths of land and natural resources. He also has effectively unlimited term length, and controls a propaganda machine so powerful it rivals even that of the United States (/snark). All these factors make for a good recipe…

Ukraine has the 3rd most shale gas reserves in Europe, not all of world. There are countries with much more reserves than Ukraine, Russia included. So no, if Putin is trying to start a war it is not because of Ukraine's shale reserves. But if you are adamant that is is Putin who is the one doing most of the instigating here than there are many arguments to be made against that seemingly popular view.

Is tricky, there is massive bullshit on both sides. Ultimately, the Crimea situation is about the Black Sea Fleet. If Putin had lost control of that then he would have been finished. The eastern Ukrainian situation is trickier. Those guys are nuts, but giving them toys must have seemed like an opportunity too good to ignore, until the airliner came down.

Personally I think Putin is addicted to power rather than conquest, but will do conquest if he feels that not doing so endangers his power at home. He is very dangerous, but thankfully he doesn't appear to be an idiot.

Now if Gorbachev had been given proper support when he needed it...

Re: RedHat requests Russian partners to suspend projects under U.S. sanctions

#49
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before Google pulled out of China, Baidu had 64% of the search market, that increased to 70% after Google's pullout. Baidu had already won in China before Google's pullout. The pullout was just a PR move. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405274870399930...

Interesting. I had not seen that stat. Any idea how they were able to grow their market share so quickly? Obviously the government subsidies gave them the requisite funding, but what was making consumers choose Baidu over Google even before China started crippling Google?

Baidu would give you links to illegal downloads in the search results. Thus, everybody would use Baidu instead of Google.
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