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A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

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Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#41
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would be peeved. Doubly so, because in the context of finance, that's actually illegal. But the key word in your example is "simultaneously", and it's the thing that did not happen in this example. This is more like "I bought all the apples at the first cart, and by the time I got to the second card, half the carts had raised their prices, and most of the apples at the remaining parts had been bought by enterpris…

There are two possible solutions. The first solution is to forbid multiple marketplaces for a single virtual asset. Honestly, the service provided by these marketplaces is very simple, and could be provided by a non-profit organization that is bound by law to ensure low barriers to entry. This would be a win for everybody, really. The second solution is to enforce that markets operate on a synchronized heartbeat with…

Well, yes, those are potential solutions. But are they solutions to the problem we actually have? Indeed, what problem do we have?

Do we, in point of fact, even have a problem that needs solving? The core complaint is some unnamed institutional trader really wanted to buy a very large number of shares in one go at a very low price, while other institutional traders wanted to sell the shares at a higher price. Why are we meant to care who wins that fight?

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#42

What is happening here is really quite simple, and doesn't deserve an entire blog post. There are two exchanges, A and B, and a market maker Jill is quoting (say) 10,000 shares on each of those two exchanges for $17. Big institutional trader Jack sees the 20,000 shares and decides that he wants to buy 15,000 of them, so he sends two orders for 7,500 shares each to A and B. Because of various effects (network latencie…

There is still something that nags me.

I've heard a bunch of explanation about liquidity and how HFT allows for large orders to be fulfilled, but it seems like this is quite the opposite.

What purpose does this serve? Is society as a whole better off when Jill is able to make this .05 per share more? I wouldn't frame the debate as 'god given rights' and 'competitive advantage'. What I really want to know is why a society where trades and quotes happen on a millisecond scale is better off than one where they happen on a second scale.

It's an honest question. Someone please convince me.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#43

What is happening here is really quite simple, and doesn't deserve an entire blog post. There are two exchanges, A and B, and a market maker Jill is quoting (say) 10,000 shares on each of those two exchanges for $17. Big institutional trader Jack sees the 20,000 shares and decides that he wants to buy 15,000 of them, so he sends two orders for 7,500 shares each to A and B. Because of various effects (network latencie…

>2. The only reason that Jill has a speed advantage over Jack is because she has paid for it! She has paid to co-locate her server at the exchange, and she has paid to use high-speed connections between exchanges. Are we going to declare that paying for a competitive advantage is suddenly immoral?

If we want an efficient market,we need perfect information. Information asymmetry creates inefficient markets.

The moral argument behind free markets is that it leads to "efficient" outcomes. If people are going to do bullshit like this, there's no reason _not_ to set regulations to stop this.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#44

If you offer something for sale at a certain price and someone says "I'll buy it!" you have a contract at that moment. I don't fully understand the conditions under which you can cancel an order but it seems all the cancellations happened on exchanges where no orders had yet been fulfilled so I assume this means that the order had not yet arrived. This seems ethically just about OK to me but a sign that there is not…

Plucking from throwaway's example. You have 20,000 copies of a book you just wrote. You put half of them on Amazon, and the other half on eBay, so Amazon has 10,000 and ebay has 10,000 of them.

You see an order come in for 5,000 of them on Amazon. You think "Hot dog, these books are popular. I must be selling them too cheaply!" You immediately raise the price of all the books by 25 cents to capitalize on this.

The books you sold on Amazon are sold, so they're gone. The remaining books on Amazon are slightly more expensive.

The guy who bought the books on Amazon also bought the same number of books on eBay, but the order hadn't arrived there yet, so between when he hit the buy button and the time the order arrived, the price had changed, so those orders aren't filled.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#45
post #42

What is happening here is really quite simple, and doesn't deserve an entire blog post. There are two exchanges, A and B, and a market maker Jill is quoting (say) 10,000 shares on each of those two exchanges for $17. Big institutional trader Jack sees the 20,000 shares and decides that he wants to buy 15,000 of them, so he sends two orders for 7,500 shares each to A and B. Because of various effects (network latencie…

There is still something that nags me. I've heard a bunch of explanation about liquidity and how HFT allows for large orders to be fulfilled, but it seems like this is quite the opposite. What purpose does this serve? Is society as a whole better off when Jill is able to make this .05 per share more? I wouldn't frame the debate as 'god given rights' and 'competitive advantage'. What I really want to know is why a soc…

What's great is that we don't have to engage in thought experiments about what would happen if we didn't have trading activity with fast computers on a millisecond scale - we can just look back to any time before the 1990s, when most market making was done by humans, on human time scales.

Before 2001 the minimum tick size on any exchange was 1/16th of a dollar ($0.0625) and before 1997 it was 1/8th ($0.125), so the absolute minimum you would pay for a round trip (buying a stock and later selling it) was that much. Frequently, the bid-offer spread would be many ticks wide, so you could easily be paying $0.25 or $0.50 for each round trip.

The current minimum tick size is $0.01, and there are many stocks which trade at that level. Even if you suffer $0.05 of slippage on a round trip, you're still better off than you would have been under the old regime.

In the old regime, instead of high frequency traders, you had floor brokers who would work orders. Fortunately, floor brokers were paragons of virtue and morality, who would certainly never front run their clients orders, and would take any trade even if it worked to their disadvantage (NB in case you don't get it - this is sarcasm. In the 1987 crash, most brokers wouldn't even pick up their fucking phone because too many people were trying to sell stock, and the brokers didn't want to buy).

I honestly find it hard to believe that some people think that was better than what we have today.

---

Edit: The other thing I don't get is why ordinary investors (by which I mean anyone with less than $100m to invest) care about this. For a small investor, you are actually getting an even better deal because your order for 1000 shares or whatever can get filled instantaneously, in one chunk, for a great price! It's only when you're trying to buy hundreds of thousands of shares in a few minutes that you end up suffering price slippage.

The standard response is that ordinary investors have their money invested in mutual funds and pensions, who are large investors. But in that case you are already paying 0.5-2% per year to your fund manager, and why do you give a shit if they lose 10 basis points (0.1%) in price slippage because the market is more efficient than it used to be?

In fact, why is my pension fund manager trading so fucking much anyway? I don't have a pension because I think the fund manager is some genius stock picker, I have it because it's tax efficient and my employer contributes to it. Just buy the S&P500 and sit on it.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#46

What is happening here is really quite simple, and doesn't deserve an entire blog post. There are two exchanges, A and B, and a market maker Jill is quoting (say) 10,000 shares on each of those two exchanges for $17. Big institutional trader Jack sees the 20,000 shares and decides that he wants to buy 15,000 of them, so he sends two orders for 7,500 shares each to A and B. Because of various effects (network latencie…

What if it is a third party who is the HFT? Mary sees Jacks buy on A and uses the speed advantage to buy Jill's shares on B preventing Jack from finishing the transaction and Jill from reacting to increased demand. What if Mary was created solely for this purpose? When does it turn from arbitrage to rent seeking?

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#47

Just in case anyone has time to help me out: What's the difference between trades and quotes here in this chart? And how are the trader's order and purchases indicated?

A quote is a statement that someone is offering to buy or sell a specific quantity of shares/commodities at a specific price: "I want to sell 10g of gold at 40$ each". Typically the identity of the trader is known only to the exchange (and the trader )

A trade is an announcement that an offer was accepted and a contract was agreed on. "10g of gold have been sold at 40$ each". The identity of the traders is typically known only by the exchange, and each of the trader knows they are part of it, but don't know the counterparty.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#48
post #43

What is happening here is really quite simple, and doesn't deserve an entire blog post. There are two exchanges, A and B, and a market maker Jill is quoting (say) 10,000 shares on each of those two exchanges for $17. Big institutional trader Jack sees the 20,000 shares and decides that he wants to buy 15,000 of them, so he sends two orders for 7,500 shares each to A and B. Because of various effects (network latencie…

>2. The only reason that Jill has a speed advantage over Jack is because she has paid for it! She has paid to co-locate her server at the exchange, and she has paid to use high-speed connections between exchanges. Are we going to declare that paying for a competitive advantage is suddenly immoral? If we want an efficient market,we need perfect information. Information asymmetry creates inefficient markets. The moral…

If you want a reasonably efficient market, you need some participants to have close to perfect information.

There is no market anywhere in the world that is 100% efficient, because the costs of getting to efficiency are prohibitively high. It's like trying to reach the speed of light - you can expend more and more effort getting closer and closer, but you can never actually reach it.

I'm not saying that what we have now is perfect, but it's a damn sight better than what we used to have.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#49
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is still something that nags me. I've heard a bunch of explanation about liquidity and how HFT allows for large orders to be fulfilled, but it seems like this is quite the opposite. What purpose does this serve? Is society as a whole better off when Jill is able to make this .05 per share more? I wouldn't frame the debate as 'god given rights' and 'competitive advantage'. What I really want to know is why a soc…

What's great is that we don't have to engage in thought experiments about what would happen if we didn't have trading activity with fast computers on a millisecond scale - we can just look back to any time before the 1990s, when most market making was done by humans, on human time scales. Before 2001 the minimum tick size on any exchange was 1/16th of a dollar ($0.0625) and before 1997 it was 1/8th ($0.125), so the a…

I see a false dichotomy here. The fact that floor brokers were dishonest doesn't imply we need to have continuous computerized trades. We could still have discrete steps and computers filling orders, right?

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#50
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's great is that we don't have to engage in thought experiments about what would happen if we didn't have trading activity with fast computers on a millisecond scale - we can just look back to any time before the 1990s, when most market making was done by humans, on human time scales. Before 2001 the minimum tick size on any exchange was 1/16th of a dollar ($0.0625) and before 1997 it was 1/8th ($0.125), so the a…

I see a false dichotomy here. The fact that floor brokers were dishonest doesn't imply we need to have continuous computerized trades. We could still have discrete steps and computers filling orders, right?

Right, and maybe one day the market will work that way. But

(a) what we have at the moment is still a lot better than what we had before - incremental progress!

(b) it's not at all obvious (to me) that discrete time steps would be better than what we have now. Market makers would be taking more risk, so that would quote in smaller size and at wider spreads, which could make trading more expensive for everybody.

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