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The Pivot

dilbert.com

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Re: The Pivot

#41

Post by timr »

wdewind wrote: post #12

For those of us not working on cat photo sharing products for the ever shifting consumer market there is considerably less luck, throwing random stuff at the wall, and pivoting involved. B2B SaaS is pretty nice. Join us on the dark side :)

"For those of us not working on cat photo sharing products for the ever shifting consumer market there is considerably less luck, throwing random stuff at the wall, and pivoting involved."

...but how do you know that? The principal disadvantage of B2B is that the long sales cycle greatly increases the time until you get feedback that your product sucks, so you either succeed (in which case, of course, you say "it wasn't luck"), or you fail (in which case, it's attributed to bad luck). Also, even then, it takes a fairly self-aware set of founders to admit that the reason that the product isn't selling is because it sucks, and not because (say) the sales team is bad, or because BigCo isn't buying this quarter, etc.

Say what you will about consumer startups, but the ability to pivot quickly in the face of consumer feedback is a feature, not a bug. You can sort-of get around this by doing a direct-sale B2B service (i.e. what you're doing with justworks), but in that case, you're still a consumer startup -- you're just selling a "professional" product with a niche market.

Re: The Pivot

#43

Post by DirtyAndy »

freshhawk wrote: post #40
wlievens wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big question is: how do you discover and identify a good b2b problem that needs solving in the first place.

Got some great pithy advice about this a while ago: find something still being done with paper and fax machines. There are a ridiculous number of them out there.

Add Excel spreadsheets and Access databases to that list. Best thing, someone else has already proven their is a need for the system and a working solution!

Re: The Pivot

#44

Post by bengali3 »

silverlake wrote: post #28

Consumer internet startups are like Hollywood entertainment. No one knows what TV shows or movies will be successful. The industry tries to make smart bets: invest in big name directors or actors, or sequels or copycats or cheap reality shows, but it's still a gamble. Successful shows come out of nowhere. So they keep trying random shows every season and see which ones stick. Doesn't this sound like Silicon Valley?

I agree that it is similar, but that's the nature of all businesses, right? Prior performance is used all over the business world to justify decisions. I'm sure you've heard "Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" Investment = risk, everyone wants to minimize it while maximizing the upside.

From this blog post, it sounds like the ability to pivot smart and fast ( fast failing.. that rings a bell..) could enhance ones probability of success. And the ability to pivot away from your 'baby' into the scary unknown again takes a special kind of skill - Letting Go aka: know when to fold 'em.

Re: The Pivot

#45

Post by nickpinkston »

imgabe wrote: post #21
e40 wrote: post #15

Success simply can't be predicted to any level of statistical comfort. There are, however, a small percentage of people that consistently succeed. I met a guy like this, and I came to find out he had eliminated a lot of the risk of his software ventures by having a ready-made market for his company among his friends in the venture/banking world. I saw him do it a few times and realized that it was cheating, in a sens…

Given a large enough population with random outcomes, of course a small percentage will consistently succeed.

It's not ALL luck - some people do way better than rolling the dice alone would suggest. Of course, it's very hard to measure this and know if you're one of those people.

Re: The Pivot

#46

Post by bengali3 »

devindotcom wrote: post #9

If you remove the questionable assumption that most of the ideas are good, isn't it rather kind of institutionalizing "throw enough shit at the wall and some of it will stick?"

I like: "throw enough shit at the wall and you'll learn how to make some of it stick?"

because you must learn at every turn

Re: The Pivot

#47

Post by NhanH »

wdewind wrote: post #31
wlievens wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big question is: how do you discover and identify a good b2b problem that needs solving in the first place.

A lot of the "throw it up there and see what happens" movement comes from young engineers who literally lack the life experience to know what problems to solve. Given that scenario, and the intense pressure that comes from SV for young people to succeed, the approach makes sense, but there is a longer term, more considered approach to things. Especially for B2B startups, the best way to come up with an idea is to wor…

PG is one of those who strongly advocates for "throw it up and see what happens". He is probably more influential to the movement than any young engineers, and he is decisively neither young nor inexperienced.

Re: The Pivot

#48

Post by NhanH »

nickpinkston wrote: post #45
imgabe wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given a large enough population with random outcomes, of course a small percentage will consistently succeed.

It's not ALL luck - some people do way better than rolling the dice alone would suggest. Of course, it's very hard to measure this and know if you're one of those people.

I don't think anyone would say it's all luck. People with skill will do better than the AVERAGE rolls. But with a large enough population, some one will be able to get all 6 out of a hundred rolls just by luck. Given a success list alone you can't tell if it's luck or skill.

Re: The Pivot

#49

Post by YZF »

NhanH wrote: post #47
wdewind wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of the "throw it up there and see what happens" movement comes from young engineers who literally lack the life experience to know what problems to solve. Given that scenario, and the intense pressure that comes from SV for young people to succeed, the approach makes sense, but there is a longer term, more considered approach to things. Especially for B2B startups, the best way to come up with an idea is to wor…

PG is one of those who strongly advocates for "throw it up and see what happens". He is probably more influential to the movement than any young engineers, and he is decisively neither young nor inexperienced.

There's a big difference between an idea that makes it past many filters but you still don't know if it'll work and between a million random ideas that don't have a chance in hell in the first place.

You want to validate your business assumptions sooner rather than later and there's nothing wrong with that. You should also tweak your business based on the real world. Nothing wrong with that. Nothing really that new about that either. Other than that maybe Pivot is the new Agile?

Re: The Pivot

#50

Post by wdewind »

timr wrote: post #41
wdewind wrote: post #12

For those of us not working on cat photo sharing products for the ever shifting consumer market there is considerably less luck, throwing random stuff at the wall, and pivoting involved. B2B SaaS is pretty nice. Join us on the dark side :)

"For those of us not working on cat photo sharing products for the ever shifting consumer market there is considerably less luck, throwing random stuff at the wall, and pivoting involved." ...but how do you know that? The principal disadvantage of B2B is that the long sales cycle greatly increases the time until you get feedback that your product sucks, so you either succeed (in which case, of course, you say "it was…

> the ability to pivot quickly in the face of consumer feedback is a feature, not a bug.

I couldn't agree more, but I'm not sure you're right about the feedback cycle. We did a ton of "lean startup"-ish stuff including launching minimal products to trusted beta users and expanding based on customer feedback.

But there is exactly a 0% chance that Justworks will ever fundamentally "pivot" to being a different product. The concept that this is even preferable is kind of crazy. A pivot should be a last chance "we got it wrong but we've got some money left so let's try something else" - not a matter of course.

In terms of knowing whether or not the product sucks vs. the sales team sucks, this is, of course, an eternal question in SaaS. Luckily our product is selling, but I would say that regardless trust and high amounts of communication between sales and product development is absolutely key. At any sort of level of maturity this is your prime feedback loop with the customer and we take it very very seriously.

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