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A New—and Reversible—Cause of Aging

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41–50 of 90 posts

Re: A New—and Reversible—Cause of Aging

#41
post #32
post #5

Its a promising result, but a lot of mice experiments don't have the same effects on people. It would be ironic if this technique failed on humans subjected to a lot of exposure to botox :-) The fear is that suddenly not only would the rich get richer, but they would never die. That leads to some fairly depressing scenarios.

Don't bother with those immortality consequences scenarios until you see a real general working treatment for cancer (something way more than "it cures 80% of the cancers in 80% of the cases"). If you live long enough, you will get cancer - basic molecular biology and probability and thermodynamics will take care of this. Also, the side effects of most regenerative treatments are increases in the risk of cancer. Also…

> If you live long enough, you will get cancer

Is this true, though?

The really old rarely die from cancer, it seems. http://z3.invisionfree.com/The_110_Club/index.php?showtopic=...

Re: A New—and Reversible—Cause of Aging

#42
post #5

Its a promising result, but a lot of mice experiments don't have the same effects on people. It would be ironic if this technique failed on humans subjected to a lot of exposure to botox :-) The fear is that suddenly not only would the rich get richer, but they would never die. That leads to some fairly depressing scenarios.

We'll have effectively created a new breed of super-mice though.

Re: A New—and Reversible—Cause of Aging

#43

“The aging process we discovered is like a married couple—when they are young, they communicate well, but over time, living in close quarters for many years, communication breaks down,” said Harvard Medical School Professor of Genetics David Sinclair" - Totally off topic though but I think he's describing a couple heading to divorce. Nearly all successful marriages move in the exact opposite direction.

I think it was a case of bad paraphrasing. Another source doesn't make Sinclair sound as odd: "Much like a married couple talks to each other when they're newly married but then they stop communicating after about 20 years, at least in some cases." http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-20/scientists-develop-ant...

Re: A New—and Reversible—Cause of Aging

#44
post #41
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't bother with those immortality consequences scenarios until you see a real general working treatment for cancer (something way more than "it cures 80% of the cancers in 80% of the cases"). If you live long enough, you will get cancer - basic molecular biology and probability and thermodynamics will take care of this. Also, the side effects of most regenerative treatments are increases in the risk of cancer. Also…

> If you live long enough, you will get cancer Is this true, though? The really old rarely die from cancer, it seems. http://z3.invisionfree.com/The_110_Club/index.php?showtopic=...

[deleted]

Re: A New—and Reversible—Cause of Aging

#45
post #41
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't bother with those immortality consequences scenarios until you see a real general working treatment for cancer (something way more than "it cures 80% of the cancers in 80% of the cases"). If you live long enough, you will get cancer - basic molecular biology and probability and thermodynamics will take care of this. Also, the side effects of most regenerative treatments are increases in the risk of cancer. Also…

> If you live long enough, you will get cancer Is this true, though? The really old rarely die from cancer, it seems. http://z3.invisionfree.com/The_110_Club/index.php?showtopic=...

They don't die _from_ cancer, but they tend to _have_ cancer when they die.

Tumours in old people grow slowly.

Re: A New—and Reversible—Cause of Aging

#46
post #5

Its a promising result, but a lot of mice experiments don't have the same effects on people. It would be ironic if this technique failed on humans subjected to a lot of exposure to botox :-) The fear is that suddenly not only would the rich get richer, but they would never die. That leads to some fairly depressing scenarios.

I'm pretty sure if possible, serious anti-aging technogy will drop in price due to incredible market demand. It's highly unlikely the compound relies on resources that are extremely rare. Even if that were the case, someone would quickly find a way to replicate the procedure without the rare resources. Likely the things in the way would be governments and corporations trying to profit through IP. In that case, black…

Just to be clear, increasing demand implies shifting the demand curve rightward, and increases the price.

The dynamics of economies of scale that we are familiar with are related to chance that suppliers can lower their marginal costs if demand also justifies a fixed cost in suitable technology. And furthermore, if there is a big enough market and enough suppliers, the market price will approach the marginal cost of production.

Imagine someone wants you to make a spoon that they'll buy from you. It takes you an hour to whittle one out of a piece of wood, and you charge $100. Then they want ten more using the exact same method you used on the first one. Ten hours whittling sounds like even more of a hardship than an hour, so you charge even more per spoon. A thousands spoons painstakingly whittled? Nope.

Now imagine on the other hand, they want you to make them a plastic spoon. Making one plastic spoon is going to be a lot more difficult than whittling one wooden spoon. And yet, if they want enough of them, and you can use any technology, your costs might start to approach $0.01 per spoon.

Anyway, since we think of anything that's to become a viable business in terms of how it can scale, it's easy to reverse the outcomes of changes in supply or demand in the base case where no technology or methods are changing.

Re: A New—and Reversible—Cause of Aging

#47
post #39

“The aging process we discovered is like a married couple—when they are young, they communicate well, but over time, living in close quarters for many years, communication breaks down,” said Harvard Medical School Professor of Genetics David Sinclair" - Totally off topic though but I think he's describing a couple heading to divorce. Nearly all successful marriages move in the exact opposite direction.

I think, it's not really that communication breaks down, it is more that you don't need to communicate at all because you know the other person so well by now. Then divorce happens because you don't like what you know or you realize your spouse isn't what you wanted, or the marriage becomes stronger because you anticipate your partners needs/actions without having to communicate. So yeah, the analogy is not really ri…

While it is true that you learn your spouse that well, it will be long before that when you realize if don't like them.

However when you don't communicate, your lives get out of sync. At some point this has gone on long enough, the changes we go through (called life) cause people to become strangers again.

It's like two inertial systems. They drift, differently, over time and this difference accumulates. Communication between the two inertial units can synchronize them. Or a trusted third party (GPS) can give them both a course correction.

Re: A New—and Reversible—Cause of Aging

#48
post #41
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't bother with those immortality consequences scenarios until you see a real general working treatment for cancer (something way more than "it cures 80% of the cancers in 80% of the cases"). If you live long enough, you will get cancer - basic molecular biology and probability and thermodynamics will take care of this. Also, the side effects of most regenerative treatments are increases in the risk of cancer. Also…

> If you live long enough, you will get cancer Is this true, though? The really old rarely die from cancer, it seems. http://z3.invisionfree.com/The_110_Club/index.php?showtopic=...

It's not that the risk of cancer goes down it's that all the other risks goes up. Remember really old people have a 50/50 chance of death per year risk and your cancer risk is lower than that. But long term even a 1 in 200 risk of death per year will still kill you.

Anyway, I don't really see the problem with rich people living longer lives. Dynastic wealth still lingers around and ends up in the hands of incompetent people which is probably a worse outcome.

Re: A New—and Reversible—Cause of Aging

#49
Many of the problems surrounding funding of meaningful efforts to treat aging, eliminate age-related disease, and extend healthy life come about because the people with the biggest megaphones are also doing the least useful work.

This is true outside the scientific community, in the "anti-aging" marketplace that tries to convince people they should take supplements rather than support research.

This is true inside the scientific community, where the Sinclair labs and their work on sirtuins - which is about as useless as supplements based on the last ten years of work - get far more attention than anything that is actually likely to produce meaningful results.

This article is an example of high-road hype and nonsense. More than a decade of work on sirtuins have failed to reliably produce even a tiny fraction of the gains to health and life provided by calorie restriction or exercise. This is just one tiny slice of the broader mainstream scientific approach of attempting to alter the operation of metabolism in order to provide benefits. This is vastly complex, and will take a very, very long time to get anywhere. When scientists speak of not seeing any real progress towards human longevity in the near future, this is the approach they are talking about: take this thing, the interaction space of metabolism with aging, which is vast, and about which nowhere near enough is understood, and then try to make a better version of it.

Sure, it's possible in the long term. But we'll all be old before anyone even makes a good first pass through this enormous complexity.

Yet there is a much better path forward towards treatment of aging. This is to identify the differences between old and young tissues, something that has already been done and agreed upon by the scientific community, more or less settled for the past 20 years, and then fix them all. You don't need to delve into the interaction space to understand why or how or process or progress. You just fix it. It is the difference between repainting a wall versus understanding the deep molecular interactions of wall, paint, and weather so that you can build a better lasting paint. One of those choices is evidently much more efficient than the other.

When it's a wall, who cares? Let the paint scientists get on with it. But in the case of aging, tens of millions of lives are lost every year that passes while the mainstream screws around with metabolism to slow aging rather than building the means to repair the identified causes of aging.

Even better, while the metabolic engineers have no clear plan to produce a good end state, just a bunch of plans that have not yet panned out as expected despite great expense, the "just fix it" approach to aging has clear paths to the development of repair therapies for each identified difference between young and old tissues. So they are only limited in progress by funding.

Why does this situation exist? I blame regulation. If your work doesn't result in something that looks like a drug, sounds like a drug, and walks like a drug it isn't going to be approved. Further, treating aging is not a result recognized by the FDA - so whatever you do has to be sidelined to treat some disease of aging. In other words only applied after it's too late to prevent things from going awry. So we see marginal unambitious work on marginal unambitious treatments, the continuing random walk through the natural world's pharmacology in search of chemicals that can be crudely administered to do slightly more good than harm, because that's the only way to have even a slight chance of getting to market. Highly regulated systems perpetuate their current state at all expense, and treat change as a threat.

The treatments for aging that might actually do some good in the future are radically different from today's pharmacology. These are the repair strategies: mitochondrial gene therapy, adapted bacterial enzymes let loose in the body, targeted destruction of stem cells and immune cells run wild, that sort of thing. You can find them described if you look up SENS, the strategies for engineered negligible senescence, but there are other similar lists put forward by different research groups. The repair approach is the disruptive newcomer to the field, barely ten years old, but gathering support. We should hope that it soon wins over the mainstream, and relegates the era of paying billions for sirtuin research and other dead-ends to the dustbin of history.

Re: A New—and Reversible—Cause of Aging

#50
post #41
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't bother with those immortality consequences scenarios until you see a real general working treatment for cancer (something way more than "it cures 80% of the cancers in 80% of the cases"). If you live long enough, you will get cancer - basic molecular biology and probability and thermodynamics will take care of this. Also, the side effects of most regenerative treatments are increases in the risk of cancer. Also…

> If you live long enough, you will get cancer Is this true, though? The really old rarely die from cancer, it seems. http://z3.invisionfree.com/The_110_Club/index.php?showtopic=...

Because the heart and circulatory system accumulate damage and fail first in very old age. Yes, the risk of cancer fall a little with old age (or at least the speed of progression - most of the very old that die of heart disease and stroke probably have lots of incipient cancers that would have taken much longer to kill them). This risk never falls to zero or negligible and all anti-aging and regenerative therapies will reverse this - in a system where everything works slower and worse, even cancer works slower.

And if you look at that list for example, you see that most of those causes of death are thing that would have been harmless to a person without cardiovascular diseases. Taking some of the examples: the long list of pneumonias is because old people that get stuck in bed because of a stroke or heart failure usually get "aspiration pneumonia" or that the buildup of fluid in lungs due to hart failure leads to a series of complications fatal when coupled with a pneumonia. The only causes from that list that were probably not related to cardiovascular disease, besides the cancers, are probably the 2 kidney failures (...if you don't assume things like renal artery stenosis due to aterosclerosys or aterosclerosys and hypertension related kidney disease). Also, things like "organ failure" are a way of describing the consequences not the cause - there was a cause for that organ failure, just that the pathologist didn't bother looking into it. And unless there is a real suspicion of criminal action, no path exams for the causes of death in old people are really conducted scientifically anywhere in the world.

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