Japan's aging population could actually be good news • Hacker News Board

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#41

Post by barry-cotter » Sun, Jan 12, 2014, 1:21 AM UTC

a8da6b0c91d wrote: post #38

barry-cotter wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Allowing immigration has been a mistake. Yeah, I got mine. Fuck all those foreigners whose ancestors didn't get here fast enough.

It's a nation, not a charity operation.

Who's asking you to pay for anything?

If you're concerned about the purity of your nation there's no need to be a stereotypical liberal about it either. Allow me to present a policy package that costs the state basically nothing and improves the lives of many not currently within the borders of your state.

1. Move from jus soli to jus sanguinus; no one without a parent who is a citizen of the state automatically becomes a citizen.

2. Any foreigner convicted of any crime gets deported. One may wish to have different visa categories for foreigners of a higher class/who have more money. The big thing is that it be clear that begging, petty theft and homelessness are deportable offences.

3. After five years you can either go home with all the money you paid in taxes/social security minus an actuarial average of your cost to the state or you can stay and forfeit it. South Korea does something roughly similar and it works pretty well at discouraging settlement.

If you're feeling really humanitarian you can allow third generation non-citizen residents over 30 an opportunity to naturalise.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#42

Post by rayiner » Sun, Jan 12, 2014, 1:50 AM UTC

hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #35

rayiner wrote: post #9

Here's the problem I see with both population decline and life extension: lots of research indicates that the creative peak happens from 20-40 or so. Geniuses rarely continue to be the same level of productive after that. In other words, progress is probably better served by giving two people the chance to live 50 years than one person the chance to live 100, though resource consumption is about the same. An aging so…

This comment upsets me. How pretentious to define what people should do with their lives and how long they should live based on some loosely defined "progress". Society doesn't have a moral obligation of pumping out geniuses. People live because that's a natural right. Besides, not many things in life are more valuable than sitting down and having a chat with someone 70, 80, 90 years old. It's wisdom you won't find o…

I'm not saying what people should do with their lives. I'm pointing out a counterpoint to the usual cheerleading about life extension. It'll be a world in which things change more slowly. Definitely in terms of social progress, but potentially also in terms of scientific progress.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#43

Post by sliverstorm » Sun, Jan 12, 2014, 2:05 AM UTC

revelation wrote: post #26

Daishiman wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Different day, same Malthusian bullshit. We are currently experiencing a human-induced mass extinction event and reduction of biodiversity comparable to the largest natural catastrophes in the planet. The way things are going, by the end of the century most of the large mammalian predators will be definitely extinct, and if carbon emissions are not reduced by the end of the century, by which we should become a carb…

I don't get it. The ecosystem is not a constant system. It is summary randomness, guided by evolution. Whatever you are trying to preserve, be assured new randomness will happily take its place.

You mean the way mold is happily taking the place of entire coral reefs? Biodiversity is not just an ethical concern; biodiversity is useful to humankind.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#44

Post by sliverstorm » Sun, Jan 12, 2014, 2:07 AM UTC

guard-of-terra wrote: post #28

In countries where fertility rate is much under 2.0, people tend to have two opinions on demographics: 1) If you don't have enough (read: a lot of) money then don't have children. If you're not ready to spend all your time on children while still making enough money then don't have children. If you're not the model family then don't have children. If we think you're not the best parent possible then don't have childr…

People's individual choices don't always line up with their beliefs about what the country as a whole should do.

I am told BART was approved by a whole lot of voters who liked the idea of everybody else using BART, so they could have less traffic on the roads. Nobody was voting for BART so they could use it themselves. (Or so the story goes).

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#45

Post by sliverstorm » Sun, Jan 12, 2014, 2:10 AM UTC

guard-of-terra wrote: post #19

sliverstorm wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I follow your argument. I will note though that Japan is already land- and natural resources-bound in ways the United States has never had to struggle with. It's a smallish island nation with lots of mountainous (difficult to farm) terrain. I believe Japan has not been able to feed itself without imports for ages. If there is anywhere downsizing population might make sense, it would be there.

Hong Kong and Singapore are much worse when it comes to feeding themself yet they have no problem doing so. In practice, they are the richest. Russia has infinite resources of growing food which is only constrained by the fact that it's not very profitable. Nobody it the world wants food so badly to pay for in same kind of money they cough up for oil. Food is not the constraint, neither is living space.

Hong Kong and Singapore have land borders. Japan does not, making them more vulnerable than usual.

Russia doesn't grow an infinite amount of food, because most of the rest of the world can supply itself with food. If the USA's domestic food production dropped to zero, growing food in Russia would get profitable very quickly.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#46

Post by rayiner » Sun, Jan 12, 2014, 2:39 AM UTC

a3n wrote: post #32

rayiner wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its not a matter of health. You can give a 65 year old the brain of a 20 year old, but you can't give him back his naive unindoctrinated view of the world. And the sheer wonderment of childhood and adolescence is something you can never recapture. I have a 1 year old. There are expressions of joy you will only ever see on the face of a 1 year old, because for them the most mundane experiences are nonetheless firsts.…

> but you can't give him back his naive unindoctrinated view of the world. Exactly the point of my second paragraph. With enough years in front, it can be worth starting completely over again, and gain the possibility of that childlike wonder and enthusiasm. Maybe school -> genius career -> kids and married life -> school -> completely new genius career. With a long enough healthy life to go, it can be worthwhile to…

Essentially, I don't find your progression plausible. I don't think someone, even a genius, is going to approach a second career as effectively as the first, not after having accumulated a lifetime of preconceptions, biases, attitudes, conclusions, and dogma. I doubt even most geniuses have a second wind of genius in them, whether or not they live 50 years longer than they do now.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#47

Post by harryh » Sun, Jan 12, 2014, 5:50 AM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #30

a3n wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if, on average, we live longer and healthier lives (healthier is not guaranteed), then our creative lives might last longer too. It could be that creativity doesn't have as much to do with age and health as we think, and is more related to being new in a fascinating field. If we live longer we'd have more opportunities to be new with a large number of years in front of us. You can see this effect in the small whe…

Its not a matter of health. You can give a 65 year old the brain of a 20 year old, but you can't give him back his naive unindoctrinated view of the world. And the sheer wonderment of childhood and adolescence is something you can never recapture. I have a 1 year old. There are expressions of joy you will only ever see on the face of a 1 year old, because for them the most mundane experiences are nonetheless firsts.…

Probably this is the exception that proves your rule but:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annus_Mirabilis_papers

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#48

Post by TheAldGarde » Sun, Jan 12, 2014, 7:55 AM UTC

This comes without surprise. A higher median age for any population is usually indicative of higher quality of life.

There's a good TedTalks video on the subject. There's also a good book called Common Wealth written by Jeff Sachs that covers this.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#49

Post by a3n » Sun, Jan 12, 2014, 7:56 AM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #46

a3n wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but you can't give him back his naive unindoctrinated view of the world. Exactly the point of my second paragraph. With enough years in front, it can be worth starting completely over again, and gain the possibility of that childlike wonder and enthusiasm. Maybe school -> genius career -> kids and married life -> school -> completely new genius career. With a long enough healthy life to go, it can be worthwhile to…

Essentially, I don't find your progression plausible. I don't think someone, even a genius, is going to approach a second career as effectively as the first, not after having accumulated a lifetime of preconceptions, biases, attitudes, conclusions, and dogma. I doubt even most geniuses have a second wind of genius in them, whether or not they live 50 years longer than they do now.

Since we haven't commonly lived longer than we do now I don't think we can assume that they way it's been is the way it's always going to be.

> a lifetime of preconceptions, biases, attitudes, conclusions, and dogma.

You left out wisdom, experience and perception.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#50

Post by TheAldGarde » Sun, Jan 12, 2014, 8:01 AM UTC

didgeoridoo wrote: post #3

> But fewer people in future will mean it has more living space, more arable land per head, and a higher quality of life, says Eberstadt. Its demands on the planet for food and other resources will also lessen. Different day, same Malthusian bullshit. These people can only think of humans as net negative parasites on the planet, rather than individual agents with a positive expected value to society. Density is GOOD…

Throwing people overboard is analogous to killing. Not reproducing isn't killing. Bad analogy. Look at it more like we're on a cruise liner lost eternally at sea. Sure, there's a garden on deck that supplies food, but it only supplies enough for X people. And the fuel is limited. Wait, that's not really metaphorical at all. That's almost the literal situation earth faces.

But, yeah, patch the raft. And stop having 4 kids.