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Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

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Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#41
I think bitcoin is great, but I don't think that making bitcoin a standard anything is a good thing. It's waaaaay too early.

There also are too many ways to steal one's bitcoin wallet, computer security is not mature yet.

I can't believe people are still finding ways to talk about bitcoin by advocating it as a standard.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#42
The social welfare program is nothing more than an open-ended credit balance system which creates a false capital industry to give nonproductive people a roof over their heads and food in their stomachs. This can be useful, however, because the recipients become state property in return for the "gift," a standing army for the elite. For he who pays the piper picks the tune.

Those who get hooked on the economic drug, must go to the elite for a fix. In this, the method of introducing large amounts of stabilizing capacitance is by borrowing on the future "credit" of the world. This is a fourth law of motion - onset, and consists of performing an action and leaving the system before the reflected reaction returns to the point of action - a delayed reaction.

The means of surviving the reaction is by changing the system before the reaction can return. By this means, politicians become more popular in their own time and the public pays later. In fact, the measure of such a politician is the delay time.

The same thing is achieved by a government by printing money beyond the limit of the gross national product, and economic process called inflation. This puts a large quantity of money into the hands of the public and maintains a balance against their greed, creates a false self-confidence in them and, for awhile, stays the wolf from the door.

They must eventually resort to war to balance the account, because war ultimately is merely the act of destroying the creditor, and the politicians are the publicly hired hit men that justify the act to keep the responsibility and blood off the public conscience. (See section on consent factors and social-economic structuring.)

If the people really cared about their fellow man, they would control their appetites (greed, procreation, etc.) so that they would not have to operate on a credit or welfare social system which steals from the worker to satisfy the bum.

Since most of the general public will not exercise restraint, there are only two alternatives to reduce the economic inductance of the system.

1. Let the populace bludgeon each other to death in war, which will only result in a total destruction of the living earth.

2. Take control of the world by the use of economic "silent weapons" in a form of "quiet warfare" and reduce the economic inductance of the world to a safe level by a process of benevolent slavery and genocide.

The latter option has been taken as the obviously better option. At this point it should be crystal clear to the reader why absolute secrecy about the silent weapons is necessary. The general public refuses to improve its own mentality and its faith in its fellow man. It has become a herd of proliferating barbarians, and, so to speak, a blight upon the face of the earth.

They do not care enough about economic science to learn why they have not been able to avoid war despite religious morality, and their religious or self-gratifying refusal to deal with earthly problems renders the solution of the earthly problem unreachable to them.

It is left to those few who are truly willing to think and survive as the fittest to survive, to solve the problem for themselves as the few who really care. Otherwise, exposure of the silent weapon would destroy our only hope of preserving the seed of the future true humanity.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is always better to be given one bitcoin now than one bitcoin in the future. A counter-example: Your pot dealer says you can have 4 bags of pot now, and you have 1 year to pay the 1 BTC you owe him. Being a man of better impulse control than you, and a prudent financial manager of his drug enterprise, he values 1 BTC in a year more than 1 BTC today. That is, of course, assuming the expected value (after applying…

Your counterexample makes no sense. If I pay him 1 bitcoin today and he puts the bitcoin under his mattress, he has 1 bitcoin in 1 year with 0 probability of non-payment. 1 x 1 > 1 x P(payment) He also has the option to invest in his business or anything else, which has value. Your claim amounts to the idea that giving someone a loan at 0% interest can be profitable. It can't.

You're reasoning in circles. The loan is not 0% interest when denoted in dollars, since a deflationary currency will be worth more dollars as time goes by. Your reply only makes sense in a world where bitcion is the only currency in existence - a logical absurdity. You've disproved your point by negation - giving someone a 0% interest loan should indeed not be profitable, but with a deflationary currency it is.

Disclosure: I have no stake in the success or failure of bitcoin. I'm interested in knowing if you do, just so I know to stop wasting my time?

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#44
Some general points 1. Most of human history has been deflationary (either .8% or 1.8% if I remember my monetary history correctly). That used to be normal

2. There are several ways of having a gold standard, namely one where people use actual gold, one where the exchange rate is set by convention, and one where the government does sets the exchange rate.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#45
Cryptocurrency and elemental metal will be the last bastions of money because credit is only money when there is trust. Everything else can be counterfeited.

The "bad for humanity" thing this author is talking about is called "reality" in some circles. An economy is supposed to transmit the pain of dwindling resources by the proxy of dwindling money, so as a society we then act to conserve. The last decade of the US consumer and several US-led invasions of other countries probably wouldn't have happened without so much easy credit.

When the US borrows money from others, it burdens them with an eventual default risk. When the US makes unfunded future promises to americans like social security, and medicare, and inflates their dollar with QE, their people's pain is merely amplified and delayed.

I don't believe there is an absolute right or wrong answer to Keynesianism. A little is okay, too much is catastrophic. The US has been borrowing continuously for decades. I don't think you can really call that Keynesianism.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your counterexample makes no sense. If I pay him 1 bitcoin today and he puts the bitcoin under his mattress, he has 1 bitcoin in 1 year with 0 probability of non-payment. 1 x 1 > 1 x P(payment) He also has the option to invest in his business or anything else, which has value. Your claim amounts to the idea that giving someone a loan at 0% interest can be profitable. It can't.

You're reasoning in circles. The loan is not 0% interest when denoted in dollars, since a deflationary currency will be worth more dollars as time goes by. Your reply only makes sense in a world where bitcion is the only currency in existence - a logical absurdity. You've disproved your point by negation - giving someone a 0% interest loan should indeed not be profitable, but with a deflationary currency it is. Discl…

Then the dealer doesn't value the pot at 1 tomorrows bitcoin today. His willingness to accept payment in the future points at the discount he sees.

I don't have any interest in bitcoin, I'm a spectator. Edit: I realized that's not entirely true, I got 1.5 namecoin from a fountain a couple of years ago.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#47
Money as an abstract 'value store' is not stable. It worked in the past with gold, because we did not have too many ways to speculate on it and transfer value from one asset to another. But it stopped working already in the beginning of the 20th century. This is perhaps a bold claim - but I believe that stability in money can be only an effect of regulation. This regulation does not need to be rigid centralized manipulation - but perhaps it can be a market-driven mechanism (http://mercatus.org/publication/market-driven-nominal-gdp-ta... - have not yet read this one).

Money as an abstract leads only to bubbles, because personal gains the of using it as a zero-sum game (outguessing your peers) dwarf gains of every other human activity.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your counterexample makes no sense. If I pay him 1 bitcoin today and he puts the bitcoin under his mattress, he has 1 bitcoin in 1 year with 0 probability of non-payment. 1 x 1 > 1 x P(payment) He also has the option to invest in his business or anything else, which has value. Your claim amounts to the idea that giving someone a loan at 0% interest can be profitable. It can't.

You're reasoning in circles. The loan is not 0% interest when denoted in dollars, since a deflationary currency will be worth more dollars as time goes by. Your reply only makes sense in a world where bitcion is the only currency in existence - a logical absurdity. You've disproved your point by negation - giving someone a 0% interest loan should indeed not be profitable, but with a deflationary currency it is. Discl…

Suppose 1 BTC = $X today and $Y in a year. If I pay my dealer 1 BTC today and he doesn't spend it, he has $Y in a year. If he extends me a 0% interest loan for 1 year, there is a probability P Loaning someone an asset at 0% is always worse than holding the asset. The value of the loan is P(repayment) x value of asset in future. The value of the asset today = value of asset in future + option value. There is no escaping this mathematical identity. Provided P(repayment) If you were correct, then you could make a profit by loaning out shares of SPY or other security with a positive expected rate of return at 0%. You can't.

If you disagree with this, please express your disagreement in math.

I don't own any bitcoins, and have no stake in it. I think it's a good idea that might solve the current mess of payment systems, however.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#49
post #42

The social welfare program is nothing more than an open-ended credit balance system which creates a false capital industry to give nonproductive people a roof over their heads and food in their stomachs. This can be useful, however, because the recipients become state property in return for the "gift," a standing army for the elite. For he who pays the piper picks the tune. Those who get hooked on the economic drug,…

You forget that the largest recipient of welfare ('security') has been corporations, not "bums" as you put it. Despite this, the elitism of society blames "bums" for our economic problems. It's the corporations who drain the economy, not individuals - that much is clear.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is always better to be given one bitcoin now than one bitcoin in the future. A counter-example: Your pot dealer says you can have 4 bags of pot now, and you have 1 year to pay the 1 BTC you owe him. Being a man of better impulse control than you, and a prudent financial manager of his drug enterprise, he values 1 BTC in a year more than 1 BTC today. That is, of course, assuming the expected value (after applying…

> Being a man of better impulse control than you, and a prudent financial manager of his drug enterprise, he values 1 BTC in a year more than 1 BTC today. [...] expected value (after applying the deflation and factoring in risk of non-payment) I think the status of that example as an alleged counterexample results from a subtle misuse of words. If the pot dealer's choice were between 1 BTC now and 1 BTC a year from n…

> he always has the option of sitting on the BTC for a year.

Eureka! That's also known as bitcoin hoarding. If the value (in dollar terms) of holding on to bitcoin is indeed greater than spending it, people and financial institutions will hold on to it and primarily keep transacting in dollars. Which leads to a nice logical contradiction, since how can a currency be worth anything if no-one wants to spend it?

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