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Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?

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41–50 of 65 posts

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?

#41
post #17

- Stock market correction. Maybe a crash if Murphy's Law holds true and there is a sudden major unwind. Will have genuinely new characteristics. For example, you might see a selloff in "safe" dividend paying stocks and not tech, due to rotation of retirement funds out of stocks into fixed income. Another theory is you might see a panic out of financial stocks again once we see two quarters of downtrending inflation.…

I'm not sure that the technology exists to make the iBand in the way you describe in 2014. Bear in mind that they would have to already be pretty heavily into development if they're releasing it this year. Curved displays are only just being worked out, and getting all of those features (and a large enough battery) into a device small enough to not be another Galaxy Gear watch looks tricky.

Just to heap on a little more negativity, I really don't think the Democrats are a lock for the midterms. Gerrymandered districts alone will that difficult, let alone the general objections to Obama that will stick around. Many will continue to hate Obamacare irrespective of any actual results.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?

#45
People tend to overestimate what can happen in a year, but underestimate what can happen in a decade....

That said -

* Current economic recoveries are too top-heavy and debt-focused; businesses and investors are taking for themselves without giving back enough to the workers to provide customers and make recovery sustainable. Real terms wages aren't recovering, household debt is rising. I don't see a track record of that sort of thing correcting naturally, so I'd suggest it'll be a brake on recovery through 2014 and possibly push one or more major economies back into recession.

* Apple's iOS market - the cash cow supporting the whole business - continues to decline. iOS lost market share leadership on phones (aside - one of these days we'll start calling them tablets too, accident of history that they're called phones now) some years ago, and by some measures has recently lost it on tablets too. I see no practical way back for a single company releasing 2-3 devices a year against an ecosystem releasing hundreds. Stocks will continue to decline, I doubt they'll be more than a niche player in 5 years time. (Links - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4431730, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3076576)

* Mark Zuckerberg has a track record for spotting the Next Big Thing, if possibly also for overpaying for it. Facebook.com will continue its move towards being a social hub for varied sources rather than just a single entity, while stories continue dismissing its relevance. Facebook, Inc. will continue growing through this expanding footprint, whatever the core property's traffic does.

* I hope I'm wrong, but China seems to have been spoiling for a fight in various ways for some time. From its currency manipulation used to build up a balance of payment surplus which is then used to buy up real assets overseas, to its territorial stances - Taiwan, South China Sea, Senkaku / Diaoyu.... I suspect much of this is pre-emptive distraction from the fact that it needs to keep the economy growing at 7% annually to sustain their young population (and suggestions that they've been cooking the books to cover failures in this), but.... Too big a power, too much sabre rattling, too much nationalism being invoked. North Korea is clearly far from stable, Japan has a leader who wishes to paper over much of the 1931-1945 period. My hope is for China to collapse in on itself as with the former USSR; I'm not confident that we won't see war in that region in the next few years.

* Speaking of authoritarian regimes trying to use mineral wealth to paper over internal cracks and rattle sabres, Russia seems a matter of concern. Sochi 2014 is a pure vanity project; hosting a Winter Sports festival in a summer resort that's very near a region with a recent history of violent political instability (witness the recent bombings in Volgograd), building facilities in somewhat geologically unstable areas that then collapse and require rebuilding, large-scale corruption... I would be very surprised if the Sochi games go without interruption and I sincerely hope that they can prove the start of Russia freeing itself from Putin.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?

#46
post #8

People will start switching to Google+

"People will start switching to Google+"

I expect Google will continue to strongly push Google+ on as many users as it can. Whether it will actually persuade users to join or actively use the service is another matter.

Social networking will be very important to Google in 2014, so says Eric Schmidt in his 2014 predictions (2 min video)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzKM8oyCsUg

I'd like to believe that we'll be more privacy-conscious in 2014, but I don't actually think that will be the case. I'd like to see more scrutiny of the data companies collect about users, particularly because they are now collecting more data than ever before. Some companies like Google have staggering amounts of user data. They're probably salivating at the prospect of capturing even more precise user behaviour through an OS (Chrome) that potentailly captures everything you do online.

Far from the tech community (who you might hope would be most informed about this) actually raising concerns about the privacy implications of this, I think Google (and other companies) will continue to get away with barely any scrutiny at all.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?

#49
post #32

By the end of 2014, very few people have a smart watch. Bitcoin continues to become more popular. Many physical places begin supporting the currency. The UK government will start pushing for the porn block to be enforced for existing subscribers (not just new ones, as is the case now). Low-end cameras are replaced by smartphones. Linux's marketshare increases but remains relatively low. Steam OS has varying degrees o…

Low-end cameras are replaced by smartphones has already happened, surely?

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?

#50
post #38
post #24

I predict I'll finish my HP 200LX clone running RetroBSD on the new PIC32 board that just arrived. I get an excellent web developing job working on interesting project(s). I finish my book. :) And on the whole: 2014, year of the Linux desktop... Hey, I can dream, can't i?

I'm looking forward for this. My prediction is that I don't move forward on my RetroBSD running DIY calculator.

Hah, well keep an eye on the RetroBSD forums, I've been hacking away at the simulator and working on the PCBs for the keyboard and display. I've based it off the Fubarino, which I'm pretty sure is what my mail slip that arrived today is for, yay! I do predict it'll take me most of the year, as I'm going to have to hack in proper power management and other things, but it's so much fun that I don't care! I can't think of anything cooler than a HP 200 styled palmtop running a *nix. The question is, do I use the original 200LX case, or injection mould my own?

Got a link to your project at all? My website is in my profile, I'll be posting build logs once I pick up the board :D

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