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Thoughts on Bitcoin

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#41

Post by 3pt14159 »

ezl wrote: post #36

I normally love SA's writing, but this opinion piece is really narrow minded and I think misses the point. cs702 had a fantastic comment a few days ago in another thread [1]: Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a n…

Is buying contraceptives in a Muslim country a legitimate transaction?

What does it matter what your government says is legal or no. The currency will take off even if it is just used for illegal transactions its entire life.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#42

Post by sillysaurus2 »

notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I wanted to buy right when it hit $850 a few days ago. I redeemed my $11k mutual fund, but the wire transfer took until Friday to go trough. By the time I was able to buy bitcoins, they were $1111 on coinbase. Bought anyway. Got 9.89BTC.

Just lost $2k of that investment, according to the markets. Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow.

Anyway, I'm long on bitcoin. Maybe it will crash and I'll lose everything. Twice it's crashed, then the recovery has eclipsed the previous peak by several X. So I don't know.

I do know that if banks hasn't been so slow, then I would currently be telling the story of "I was able to grow $11k into $13k." One problem BTC solves is moving money around instantly. It doesn't close for Thanksgiving holiday.

Mtgox needs to become wiser as well. There's currently no trade fees, because they wanted to participate in BTC Black Friday. That kind of thing encourages people who are holding onto $15k coins to sell all of them if they think the market will go down. An extra 0.4% on that much money is significant. Mtgox really shouldn't be so willy nilly.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#43

Post by nkuttler »

ezl wrote: post #36

I normally love SA's writing, but this opinion piece is really narrow minded and I think misses the point. cs702 had a fantastic comment a few days ago in another thread [1]: Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a n…

This is one of the biggest problems with so many publications, they focus on a single aspect of bitcoin. I've started to think of many discussions about bitcoin as equivalent to "But email is worse than a letter, it will fail", "Email can never replace parcels", "But is email a letter or a postcard?", etc.

It's just absurd, bitcoin is something completely new, and nobody knows yet how we will use it, and what it can replace.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#44

Post by crististm »

pinarsezer wrote: post #26
andrewhillman wrote: post #22

"The fact that the few merchants willing to accept bitcoin generally convert to dollars right away suggest an underlying lack of faith in bitcoin—or at least a problem with the volatility." Its not a lack of faith l, it's lack off trade acceptance. If merchants accept bitcoin they need to convert back to dollars because that's what their business calls for. In other words, if they could pay their bills with bitcoin,…

> The fact that the few merchants willing to accept bitcoin generally convert to dollars right away suggest an underlying lack of faith in bitcoin—or at least a problem with the volatility. Few merchants accept gold either. Yet gold reserves in the world amount to US $8.2 trillion in value. Edit: removed part on volatility

Given the choice I think they will not have a problem in picking gold instead of bitcoins. Gold has some history behind it, and compared to bitcoins is more liquid and less volatile.

(volatile for about 3000 years - do you mean available?)

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#45

Post by skizm »

thinkalone wrote: post #31
skizm wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be honest I think the bottom is going to be around $500. Pretty much everyone I know who is even the slightest bit interested in bitcoin is waiting for this crash to happen so they can jump in. Just a guess though.

Looks like the last time it traded below $500 was November 17th[1] - so everyone you know who is interested has only become interested in the past two weeks? [1] http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30ztgSzm1g10zm...

Yep, since the spike.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#46

Post by nkuttler »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #42
notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I wanted to buy right when it hit $850 a few days ago. I redeemed my $11k mutual fund, but the wire transfer took until Friday to go trough. By the time I was able to buy bitcoins, they were $1111 on coinbase. Bought anyway. Got 9.89BTC. Just lost $2k of that investment, according to the markets. Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. Anyway, I'm long on bitcoin. Maybe it will crash and I'll lose everything.…

I hope those 11k aren't all your savings. I have coins, am bullish long term, but buying bitcoin is speculation, and bitcoin can fall back to $0.01, even if I don't think it's likely.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#47

Post by gnaritas »

notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

> but it won't be alone for long

It isn't alone now[1].

> and once the improved versions begin showing up

They already have[1].

[1] http://coinmarketcap.com/

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#48

Post by sillysaurus2 »

nkuttler wrote: post #46
sillysaurus2 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wanted to buy right when it hit $850 a few days ago. I redeemed my $11k mutual fund, but the wire transfer took until Friday to go trough. By the time I was able to buy bitcoins, they were $1111 on coinbase. Bought anyway. Got 9.89BTC. Just lost $2k of that investment, according to the markets. Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. Anyway, I'm long on bitcoin. Maybe it will crash and I'll lose everything.…

I hope those 11k aren't all your savings. I have coins, am bullish long term, but buying bitcoin is speculation, and bitcoin can fall back to $0.01, even if I don't think it's likely.

It is indeed all my savings. But I was saving it anyway, so I won't be out in a doghouse if it vanishes. I guess I'm dumb, but at this stage in my life I'd rather have 9.89BTC than $11k.

My theory is, everyone's expecting it to crash. So therefore it's more likely to do the opposite. Not much of a theory, but it seems to have been historically true.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#49

Post by ljd »

notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I actually think the decentralized nature of bitcoin is what gives it all it's value. The fact that no bank can control it, inherently holds value. Currency manipulation is a really big problem right now, and knowing that you can buy a currency that won't be artificially controlled by it's issuer is an asset in itself.

Having the currency centrally controlled again isn't special and it doesn't deviate enough from a credit card transaction for anyone to use it.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#50

Post by betterunix »

doki_pen wrote: post #23

I don't know why it is required that it is used in legitimate purchases. No one questions the value of gold, yet not many people use it to make purchases. I suspect bitcoins value will follow the same pattern as gold, once it is stable. When the world is full of uncertainty, it's value will rise. When things are steady, it's value will fall.

"No one questions the value of gold"

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-buffet-thinks-investing...

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