Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months? • Hacker News Board

Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?

#41

Post by Markinhos » Wed, Nov 27, 2013, 1:29 PM UTC

daivd wrote: post #40

I have a fundamental issue with bitcoins that I have not seen anyone address. Sooner or later a better bitcoin will be invented. One that can perform transactions faster, or is more anonymous or where mining for the coin helps some nice project (SETI@home, math proofs, protein folding, etc), or something completely different. When an alternative better currency catches on, at some point it will become obvious that bi…

Not always the best technology is the one which success. If that better bitcoin is invented too late, bitcoin can have a large infrastructure and accepted by a large proportion of merchant to be switched. Just think about VHS and Beta or OS/2

Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?

#42

Post by tedsanders » Wed, Nov 27, 2013, 7:38 PM UTC

olefoo wrote: post #6

I wonder if a poll is the best forecasting device; it seems almost axiomatic that a prediction market [1] would be a superior solution. On the other hand; I'm guessing that you might stir a bit of controversy if you were to set up a futures market where you offered people the chance to make an offer of how much they would pay for a bitcoin delivered a year from now; and others to post offers for how much they would n…

If there's no cost to storing a good, then the price today is the best predictor of the price in six months. There is no difference between a market and prediction market in this case.

Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?

#43

Post by tedsanders » Wed, Nov 27, 2013, 7:42 PM UTC

GigabyteCoin wrote: post #9

axaxs wrote: post #5

6 months, not sure. Probably less than 100. Bitcoin is certainly interesting, but there's absolutely nothing backing it. Doesn't seem much different to me than pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. Once the novelty wears off, or one of the big players cashes out, we'll see it crash.

You can't make as many Bitcoins as you can pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. That's one thing backing it. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in existence. Ever.

The supply of first edition Charizards (a pokemon card) is also fixed. Any future printings will be a later edition. By your logic, is there a reason we shouldn't use first edition Charizards as currency, since the supply is fixed? (Counterfeiting is the only good argument I see.)

Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?

#44

Post by GigabyteCoin » Thu, Nov 28, 2013, 5:53 AM UTC

tedsanders wrote: post #43

GigabyteCoin wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't make as many Bitcoins as you can pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. That's one thing backing it. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in existence. Ever.

The supply of first edition Charizards (a pokemon card) is also fixed. Any future printings will be a later edition. By your logic, is there a reason we shouldn't use first edition Charizards as currency, since the supply is fixed? (Counterfeiting is the only good argument I see.)

Counterfeiting is a good argument, and also instantaneous transfer anywhere in the world at any time without any extra security necessary.