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Dropbox Could Be A Bargain At An $8 Billion Valuation

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41–50 of 72 posts

Re: Dropbox Could Be A Bargain At An $8 Billion Valuation

#41
post #8

Considering that Dropbox are completely dependant on Amazon for their service and overnight Amazon could sink them "ooops your instances just got deleted, oops" 8 billion is a bit of a joke Now if they owned their own equipment in their own datacenters...

>Considering that Dropbox are completely dependant on Amazon for their service ...

They aren't. If they switched tomorrow or supplemented AWS with their own data-centers, you'd never notice a difference.

Re: Dropbox Could Be A Bargain At An $8 Billion Valuation

#42
I don't know much of anything about company valuations, but in terms of what the following two companies mean to me and what I believe they means to the world: if Dropbox is valued at $8B, I no longer have any reservations whatsoever with Tesla's valuation based on its stock price. (I do recognize that its price is being corrected this month, but I suspect it will eventually trend back upward.)

From my point of view, Tesla brings me at least ten times the value of Dropbox. I don't even think Dropbox represents a problem that should exist long-term assuming a re-disintermediated Internet, which is where I am optimistic we're heading eventually. Storing and sharing my data using someone else's service is retrograde.

Re: Dropbox Could Be A Bargain At An $8 Billion Valuation

#43
post #8

Considering that Dropbox are completely dependant on Amazon for their service and overnight Amazon could sink them "ooops your instances just got deleted, oops" 8 billion is a bit of a joke Now if they owned their own equipment in their own datacenters...

So ... your argument is that Dropbox's valuation is ridiculous because Amazon could completely destroy AWS and take out Dropbox in the process. Because that is what would happen if they did this. Everyone else who does anything important with AWS would drop whatever they were doing and start migrating off of it immediately.

But, yes, I suppose "my supplier could lose their mind and destroy the product I buy from them" is a concern that needs to be evaluated.

Re: Dropbox Could Be A Bargain At An $8 Billion Valuation

#44
post #4

This seems like a very convoluted way of coming to the valuation. Revenue != profit. I can easily create business that generates $1bn/month in revenue by selling dollars for 90 cents. Dropbox may be worth $8bn, but surely it makes more sense to assess the valuation based on the growth in profitability?

The theory is that since they have high gross margin they are only losing money while they ramp up to scale. In some time in the near future, they should employ economies of scale to have decent operating margins.

Selling dollars for 90 cents would be a negative gross margin business. Any business with negative gross margin should be valued as worthless

Re: Dropbox Could Be A Bargain At An $8 Billion Valuation

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With all of twitter and dropbox and youtube I think about how with ubiquitous IPv6 they might get replaced with P2P protocols. A fancy OceanStore client could eventually do everything dropbox does. All these operations seem so vulnerable to innovation that is quite likely in the next eight years. I'm skeptical about the super high valuations.

IPv4 and UPnP allows most of the P2P scenarios IPv6 does. Please clue me in as to how a P2P system is going to maintain always-on backups/storage of my personal photos.

> how a P2P system is going to maintain always-on backups/storage of my personal photos.

A client to something like OceanStore.

Re: Dropbox Could Be A Bargain At An $8 Billion Valuation

#46
post #38

Social networks are winner take all markets, whereas Dropbox is not in such a market. Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn are all trading at 20-40 times revenue based on the fact that they enjoy strong network effects.

Dropbox is very social. Go see how a lot of students in University share files with each other. A lot of them just assume that the other person has a Dropbox account. It's certainly how teams keep their projects aligned.

Re: Dropbox Could Be A Bargain At An $8 Billion Valuation

#47

Are there not several DropBox clones on GitHub? And several competitors already there (and something called Box that is less consumer orientated?) Add in the switching costs are low to non-existent (it is just git isn't it?) - surely their competitive most is almost non-existent - in which case their profits are going to constantly eaten by competitors. What is it I am missing?

Have you ever told your mom (or any non-technical) person to go onto github and install something from there on a server?

Dropbox makes it dead easy. People now Dropbox files to each other instead of email.

Re: Dropbox Could Be A Bargain At An $8 Billion Valuation

#48

Are there not several DropBox clones on GitHub? And several competitors already there (and something called Box that is less consumer orientated?) Add in the switching costs are low to non-existent (it is just git isn't it?) - surely their competitive most is almost non-existent - in which case their profits are going to constantly eaten by competitors. What is it I am missing?

The lock-in with DropBox is huge - I have eleven shared folders that I use to keep other people up to date with files, and I have never had a request to share files with anybody on anything other than Dropbox.

I trust dropbox. Dropbox has a great track record (with me). Dropbox is installed on all my tablets/smartphones/desktops/laptops. And, at $100/year, it's cheap enough that I'm not really inspired to bother price shopping.

This is clearly a case where Dropbox came in and won - and now it's time for them to invest aggressively, and make sure nobody else enters this market.

Now - I am not saying that people aren't using other systems - obviously Microsoft and Google have their products, and both Google Drive and Microsoft Skydrive are excellent products, that are technically comparable to what dropbox is offering. Apple's icloud is just annoying for knowledge workers, so I'm not going to include that in the same class - but, in terms of a generalized folder Sync Product - Dropbox has won.

Re: Dropbox Could Be A Bargain At An $8 Billion Valuation

#49
post #34

Anybody have any idea what the distribution is here for consumer vs business? I've literally never heard of anyone, company or individual, paying for Dropbox.

You're right to doubt your personal evidence at this point. Almost everyone I know who has a Dropbox account pays for it.

Ok, are they businesses or individuals? What are they using it for?

Re: Dropbox Could Be A Bargain At An $8 Billion Valuation

#50

Anybody have any idea what the distribution is here for consumer vs business? I've literally never heard of anyone, company or individual, paying for Dropbox.

Almost everyone I work with pays for their dropbox account. You start working with the free account for a few years, and then, eventually, you build a lot of business processes and data management flows - and discover you get $100/year of value out of it.

Also - a combination of Dropbox + ARQ + Backblaze/Crashplan + SuperDuper gives you a pretty rock solid backup system.

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