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Why it’s time to support only Android 4.0 and above

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Re: Why it’s time to support only Android 4.0 and above

#41

Post by jere »

MAGZine wrote: post #39
jere wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, I think that's a pretty bad comparison. If you look at the IE graph you posted, it's less than 1% in the US. Another graph that might make things easier to visualize (the blue and above is who we're talking about abandoning): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Android-dist-by-dessert.pn...

I will grant that it is a bad comparison. But, not for percentage based reasons. I initially wrote the comment that abandoning Since Android API 14 is just celebrating its 14th birthday, I'd guess (nothing to back this up) that you're going to see a sharp dropoff of Android 2.3 marketshare as people replace their old phones. Between developing for the future, and incentivising people to switch away from old technolog…

>I'd guess (nothing to back this up) that you're going to see a sharp dropoff of Android 2.3 marketshare as people replace their old phones... Kill it with fire. I don't take much issue with making Android 2.3 a second-class citizen at this point.

You could very well be right, but I think you have the wrong impression of the users.

We view IE6 users as a completely technology inept minority. They could upgrade to a better browser in seconds (not including the enterprise).

Android users on the other hand? I've been an Android user for 4 years. I got tired of getting gouged by Verizon and just switched to Republic wireless. So I have a brand new phone and I'm on 2.3.

Even leaving the percentages out of it, I don't think it's appropriate.

Re: Why it’s time to support only Android 4.0 and above

#42

Post by maaku »

ProblemFactory wrote: post #36
maaku wrote: post #3

Site is giving me a database error, so I'm committing the sin of posting based only on the title :( Hipster Mountain View/Palo Alto is not the world. Most people who manage to afford to buy a smartphone, use the thing until it dies. I personally just upgraded from an Android 2.3 device, and my latest Apple device is on iOS 2. And I read Hacker News for christ's sake. Maybe for your app, your community the norms are d…

Even in the world outside of "hipster palo alto", 70% of active Android users are on 4.0+: http://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html It seems to be growing 5% per month, so already by the end of the year 2.3 market share might fall below 10%. Starting from 4.0, many APIs were cleaned up, many bugs were fixed, and it seems that many carriers/manufacturers have stopped shipping bizarrely broken custom mo…

And by the middle of next spring, the number of users on 2.3 will be negative!

Re: Why it’s time to support only Android 4.0 and above

#43

Post by onebaddude »

maaku wrote: post #3

Site is giving me a database error, so I'm committing the sin of posting based only on the title :( Hipster Mountain View/Palo Alto is not the world. Most people who manage to afford to buy a smartphone, use the thing until it dies. I personally just upgraded from an Android 2.3 device, and my latest Apple device is on iOS 2. And I read Hacker News for christ's sake. Maybe for your app, your community the norms are d…

>Most people who manage to afford to buy a smartphone, use the thing until it dies.

I've been making this argument for a while, whenever someone cries about fragmentation, mainly from my personal experience. I'm a "techy"; I want the latest and greatest. But in my family there are 4 Android users, 3 of which don't know what version they're running, or care in the least. They use the phone to make calls, check email, text, browse the internet and maybe download an app or two. Every version of Android has those capabilities.

Re: Why it’s time to support only Android 4.0 and above

#44

Post by saurik »

ProblemFactory wrote: post #36
maaku wrote: post #3

Site is giving me a database error, so I'm committing the sin of posting based only on the title :( Hipster Mountain View/Palo Alto is not the world. Most people who manage to afford to buy a smartphone, use the thing until it dies. I personally just upgraded from an Android 2.3 device, and my latest Apple device is on iOS 2. And I read Hacker News for christ's sake. Maybe for your app, your community the norms are d…

Even in the world outside of "hipster palo alto", 70% of active Android users are on 4.0+: http://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html It seems to be growing 5% per month, so already by the end of the year 2.3 market share might fall below 10%. Starting from 4.0, many APIs were cleaned up, many bugs were fixed, and it seems that many carriers/manufacturers have stopped shipping bizarrely broken custom mo…

FWIW, remember that these figures are biased in construction.

Less importantly, they only take into account devices that have the Play Store (which you might consider your audience, but there are tons of people in the world happy to buy things from alternative markets available on their devices).

However, and this is somewhat insidious: they measure devices used in the last seven days. How often do normal users "actively visit the Play Store"? I find it highly unlikely that every normal user does so at least once every week.

In fact, I would be much less surprised by a universe where people only "visit the Play Store" once a month at best, and only when there's something specific for them to be doing (maybe they hear about a new product, and go to download).

I would then further submit that this frequency decreases the older the device is: during the first month of owning your device, you probably have tons of things you suddenly realize you want, because the device comes with no apps installed.

With an expectation curve on the usage of the device thereby working against older devices, you will see a chart that only looks at the most recent 7 days biased towards recent versions as the probability of older versions dips.

Let's look at what happens then if we posit that the average 2.3 user is using the Play Store once every four weeks, while the average 4.x user is using the Play Store once every two weeks: this mild skew makes 30/70 become almost 50/50.

Are these people who are using 2.3 really outside of your target market because they only download an app every month instead of every couple weeks? If you market to them, and make it clear your app supports them, will they not buy it?

While that might be true, it isn't something you can support with just these numbers from Google. It's even worse, in fact, when you remember that when Google was tracking "active devices" instead of "devices actively visiting Play" the 2.3/4.x split was so far in the other direction as to be unbelievable, and when Google decided "fine, we are limiting it to active users" the numbers jumped.

And now, we see the numbers creeping better and better... but did you notice that they changed the time range from 2 weeks to 7 days in the few months since Apple lambasted their uptake at WWDC? If not, you aren't paying enough attention ;P, as that's a really critical detail: Google keeps moving the goal post, so you can't take any solace in "we are making progress".

Re: Why it’s time to support only Android 4.0 and above

#45

Post by maaku »

atlanticus wrote: post #34
edwintorok wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a big difference though. People who run IE6 would be usually capable of running some more recent browser, but for various reasons choose not to. People who are stuck with Android 2.x are stuck because their hardware can't support newer versions of Android (well there are various custom ROMs that "work" with various degree of success on older devices, but not really in a usable form).

People running IE6 are doing it because their IT department won't let them upgrade.

People running Android 2.3 are doing it because their carrier won't let them upgrade.

Re: Why it’s time to support only Android 4.0 and above

#46

Post by e28eta »

onebaddude wrote: post #43
maaku wrote: post #3

Site is giving me a database error, so I'm committing the sin of posting based only on the title :( Hipster Mountain View/Palo Alto is not the world. Most people who manage to afford to buy a smartphone, use the thing until it dies. I personally just upgraded from an Android 2.3 device, and my latest Apple device is on iOS 2. And I read Hacker News for christ's sake. Maybe for your app, your community the norms are d…

>Most people who manage to afford to buy a smartphone, use the thing until it dies. I've been making this argument for a while, whenever someone cries about fragmentation, mainly from my personal experience. I'm a "techy"; I want the latest and greatest. But in my family there are 4 Android users, 3 of which don't know what version they're running, or care in the least. They use the phone to make calls, check email,…

> and maybe download an app or two

So, as an app developer, ignoring them would not be a terrible thing.

Re: Why it’s time to support only Android 4.0 and above

#47

Post by MAGZine »

jere wrote: post #41
MAGZine wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will grant that it is a bad comparison. But, not for percentage based reasons. I initially wrote the comment that abandoning Since Android API 14 is just celebrating its 14th birthday, I'd guess (nothing to back this up) that you're going to see a sharp dropoff of Android 2.3 marketshare as people replace their old phones. Between developing for the future, and incentivising people to switch away from old technolog…

>I'd guess (nothing to back this up) that you're going to see a sharp dropoff of Android 2.3 marketshare as people replace their old phones... Kill it with fire. I don't take much issue with making Android 2.3 a second-class citizen at this point. You could very well be right, but I think you have the wrong impression of the users. We view IE6 users as a completely technology inept minority. They could upgrade to a b…

I'm not going to lie--I think buying any device running 2.3 at this point is a giant waste of money, comparable to buying a laptop with Windows XP on it. There is no reason. Nexus 4s are recently out of stock at $200, and the Nexus 5 will probably compete in that area too.

It's a shame that republic wireless is handing out 2.3 devices--that really should stop.

Re: Why it’s time to support only Android 4.0 and above

#48

Post by jere »

MAGZine wrote: post #47
jere wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'd guess (nothing to back this up) that you're going to see a sharp dropoff of Android 2.3 marketshare as people replace their old phones... Kill it with fire. I don't take much issue with making Android 2.3 a second-class citizen at this point. You could very well be right, but I think you have the wrong impression of the users. We view IE6 users as a completely technology inept minority. They could upgrade to a b…

I'm not going to lie--I think buying any device running 2.3 at this point is a giant waste of money, comparable to buying a laptop with Windows XP on it. There is no reason. Nexus 4s are recently out of stock at $200, and the Nexus 5 will probably compete in that area too. It's a shame that republic wireless is handing out 2.3 devices--that really should stop.

It seems like there is some backstory behind the phone and the versioning (this is the only phone currently offered until the Moto X next month, which has 4.2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorola_Defy#Manufacturer_crit...

Sorry you think it's a "giant waste of money." I need a phone and I'm now saving something like $40/month over my previous plan.

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