Whoa, I thought anyone today already knows that words "market"+"prediction"="scam"
"market prediction" and "prediction market" are two very different things.
Intrade Ceases Trading Activity
41–50 of 58 posts
Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity
#42The money is gone. Either fraud (founders were skimming off the top all along), or they got hacked (and the 'hack' could have been an inside job as well). That's why they're not paying out - they don't have enough funds available. Same thing happened previously to one of the largest bitcoin exchanges[1]. [1] http://www.dailytech.com/Inside+the+MegaHack+of+Bitcoin+the+...
They are paying out: Settle all open positions and calculate the settled account value of all Member accounts immediately.
> At this time and until further notice, it is not possible to make any payments to members in accordance with their settled account balance until the investigations have concluded.
It seems they are not paying out at this time.
Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity
#43The money is gone. Either fraud (founders were skimming off the top all along), or they got hacked (and the 'hack' could have been an inside job as well). That's why they're not paying out - they don't have enough funds available. Same thing happened previously to one of the largest bitcoin exchanges[1]. [1] http://www.dailytech.com/Inside+the+MegaHack+of+Bitcoin+the+...
http://i.imgur.com/Y6GYW7e.png
Are they paying or not?
Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity
#44The money is gone. Either fraud (founders were skimming off the top all along), or they got hacked (and the 'hack' could have been an inside job as well). That's why they're not paying out - they don't have enough funds available. Same thing happened previously to one of the largest bitcoin exchanges[1]. [1] http://www.dailytech.com/Inside+the+MegaHack+of+Bitcoin+the+...
They are paying out: Settle all open positions and calculate the settled account value of all Member accounts immediately.
That just means they're tallying the numbers. Sending out checks is another story.
Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem is that currently the closest thing to a prediction market is Bets of Bitcoin, and they use probably the bizarrest set of rules you have ever had the misfortune to lay eyes on. So.. not really an alternative at all except for the most wildly mispriced bets on it (where you can be sure to come out with a profit regardless of how much the rules screw you). I see the wiki lists 2 other prediction markets, bu…
Prediction markets don't necessarily have to be real currency and it's a misconception that they are only accurate if you're using real money. We have run a prediction market using fantasy currency for years: http://home.inklingmarkets.com . We also run run private markets for companies...
How are you determining the accuracy of your market predictions?
Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem is that currently the closest thing to a prediction market is Bets of Bitcoin, and they use probably the bizarrest set of rules you have ever had the misfortune to lay eyes on. So.. not really an alternative at all except for the most wildly mispriced bets on it (where you can be sure to come out with a profit regardless of how much the rules screw you). I see the wiki lists 2 other prediction markets, bu…
Prediction markets don't necessarily have to be real currency and it's a misconception that they are only accurate if you're using real money. We have run a prediction market using fantasy currency for years: http://home.inklingmarkets.com . We also run run private markets for companies...
How are you determining the accuracy of your market predictions?
Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity
#47The money is gone. Either fraud (founders were skimming off the top all along), or they got hacked (and the 'hack' could have been an inside job as well). That's why they're not paying out - they don't have enough funds available. Same thing happened previously to one of the largest bitcoin exchanges[1]. [1] http://www.dailytech.com/Inside+the+MegaHack+of+Bitcoin+the+...
Unless you have strong evidence to support that statement I'd suggest deleting it as it's potentially libellous.
That's not even close to libelous in the U.S., even if false.
Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity
#48Wow - this is pretty heavy. It's unfortunate, as I liked it as a view of market sentiment. It's one thing to pontificate, another to vote with dollars.
"Financial Irregularities" is never good, and I can't see this ending well.
Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
Prediction markets don't necessarily have to be real currency and it's a misconception that they are only accurate if you're using real money. We have run a prediction market using fantasy currency for years: http://home.inklingmarkets.com . We also run run private markets for companies...
How are you determining the accuracy of your market predictions?
Here's a blog post we wrote a few years ago about it: http://blog.inklingmarkets.com/2008/05/judging-prediction-ma...
Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unless you have strong evidence to support that statement I'd suggest deleting it as it's potentially libellous.
That's not even close to libelous in the U.S., even if false.
I imagine saying a financial institution has lost all of it's customers money (without evidence) would be considered libellous in most countries.