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That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

nytimes.com

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Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#41

Post by zubairshams »

jessedhillon wrote: post #20
roflc0ptic wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guns, Germs, and Steel was most certainly not about "how and why European societies were able to advance themselves so much farther ahead of all other civilizations". The concept of "advanced", or being "ahead of" is inapplicable. It's a book about sociocultural evolution. Additionally, Diamond is pretty ambivalent about the "winners". Diamond wrote an essay on the subject of agriculture called "The Worst Mistake in…

No. I'm pretty sure it was about why and how European civilizations were able to conquer technology and the world, and specifically why many of the developments critical to the rise of European supremacy are not found in other societies. Yes, the judgments made in the book tend to be more fact-based and objective, e.g., a gun is more effective than a spear. It is not a screed extolling the virtues of European civiliz…

In my opinion, the book is about 1) How geographical location and natural factors (accidental agriculture etc.) resulted in some part of the humanity accumulate certain knowledge that helped accelerate them over others 2) Advancement of certain civilization is not a necessary indication they are better, smarter, more hard working, but an indication of accumulated knowledge resulting from #1 over a long period of time 3) #2 culminated in Europeans dominating the world over the better part of last 500 years

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#42

Post by gknoy »

sparky_z wrote: post #37
bryanlarsen wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm willing to bet that Jared Diamond understands statistics. He just understands that most of the people reading his article don't. The inaccuracy doesn't affect the article so it's better to be more clear than completely inaccurate.

The thing is, it's not even an inaccuracy. He's entirely correct (statistically speaking). He's describing the concept of Expected Value* without explicitly using the term. The only thing he could be said to "wrong" about is the idea that a person can die more than once, but everybody understands that that's not actually true. It certainly doesn't "ruin the article" like this poor fellow seems to think. * http://en.w…

The other key thing is that the risk he mentioned was not specifically of dying, but of either death or being crippled. Both of those are very frightening prospects, and he simplifies it as "dying five times" when he does the calculation.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#43

Post by woodchuck64 »

jessedhillon wrote: post #20
roflc0ptic wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guns, Germs, and Steel was most certainly not about "how and why European societies were able to advance themselves so much farther ahead of all other civilizations". The concept of "advanced", or being "ahead of" is inapplicable. It's a book about sociocultural evolution. Additionally, Diamond is pretty ambivalent about the "winners". Diamond wrote an essay on the subject of agriculture called "The Worst Mistake in…

No. I'm pretty sure it was about why and how European civilizations were able to conquer technology and the world, and specifically why many of the developments critical to the rise of European supremacy are not found in other societies. Yes, the judgments made in the book tend to be more fact-based and objective, e.g., a gun is more effective than a spear. It is not a screed extolling the virtues of European civiliz…

> When I say it that way, people understand what it's about and want to read the book.

Exactly. All pedants do is push people to hedge, equivocate, and employ dense jargon to throw them off the scent, and where's the help to the rest of us in that?

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#44

Post by mikeash »

davidroberts wrote: post #22
nathan_long wrote: post #18

Yep. This is why every dollar spent on the TSA would be better spent on preventing car accidents, heart attacks, and falls in the shower. http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2010/01/the_comparativ... But I like the OP's more practical point: personal attention to normal activities that are actually risky, based on a realistic view of those risks.

Especially since the TSA actually accomplishes almost nothing in preventing deaths. All a terrorist about to be discovered at the airport security gate would have to do to complete his deadly mission would be to detonate his bomb right then and there. It would cause people to fear airports and security gates and mess up the whole system. Terrorism is all about sowing fear that the government can't protect you. The TS…

Ironically, the fact that there haven't been any big successful airline-related terrorist attacks in the US for a long time is evidence that the TSA is useless, because of what you point out, despite the tendency for certain groups of clueless people to claim the opposite.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#45

Post by JoeAltmaier »

mauvehaus wrote: post #39
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks, yes, our climbing staff at camp is skilled at teaching correct climbing technique. I use this example to help 10-yr-olds understand why they cannot climb a random rock face during a hike.

I didn't mean to suggest otherwise about the teaching of safety if that's how you read my comment. I think the model you're teaching to the 10-year-olds is both well suited to the audience, and gives them a tool to use to analyze other situations they find themselves in. Sorry if I got derailed a bit from that point while fleshing out the safety system involved in climbing and the risks therein for the non-climbers.…

No offence taken; it was instructive to see the whole analysis. I may take that to a meeting and read it to the Troop if you don't mind?

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#47

Post by jff »

hammock wrote: post #17
GiraffeNecktie wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you missed his point. He wasn't trying to establish that New Guineans somehow "invented" the idea of not sleeping under a dead tree, merely that the author wasn't personally tuned to the risks of being under trees until he spent time with the people there. That's all.

The point is not lost, but the author does attribute it to a specific culture: >"I first became aware of the New Guineans’ attitude toward risk on a trip into a forest..." >"I now think of New Guineans’ hypervigilant attitude..." >"Traditional New Guineans have to think clearly about dangers....In contrast, Americans’ thinking about dangers is confused." The truth is it's a common, learned attitude of anyone who spen…

It's just another example of the "magical natives, so in tune with the natural world" bullshit myth.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#48

Post by roc »

davidroberts wrote: post #22
nathan_long wrote: post #18

Yep. This is why every dollar spent on the TSA would be better spent on preventing car accidents, heart attacks, and falls in the shower. http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2010/01/the_comparativ... But I like the OP's more practical point: personal attention to normal activities that are actually risky, based on a realistic view of those risks.

Especially since the TSA actually accomplishes almost nothing in preventing deaths. All a terrorist about to be discovered at the airport security gate would have to do to complete his deadly mission would be to detonate his bomb right then and there. It would cause people to fear airports and security gates and mess up the whole system. Terrorism is all about sowing fear that the government can't protect you. The TS…

Worse than that, the TSA nonsense encourages a non-trivial population to drive when they would have flown. Driving being far less safe, it's probable that Security Theatre has a body count.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#49

Post by patrickk »

jessedhillon wrote: post #20
roflc0ptic wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guns, Germs, and Steel was most certainly not about "how and why European societies were able to advance themselves so much farther ahead of all other civilizations". The concept of "advanced", or being "ahead of" is inapplicable. It's a book about sociocultural evolution. Additionally, Diamond is pretty ambivalent about the "winners". Diamond wrote an essay on the subject of agriculture called "The Worst Mistake in…

No. I'm pretty sure it was about why and how European civilizations were able to conquer technology and the world, and specifically why many of the developments critical to the rise of European supremacy are not found in other societies. Yes, the judgments made in the book tend to be more fact-based and objective, e.g., a gun is more effective than a spear. It is not a screed extolling the virtues of European civiliz…

Haven't read Guns, Germs and Steel myself, but "why and how European civilizations were able to conquer technology and the world, and specifically why many of the developments critical to the rise of European supremacy are not found in other societies" sounds like a description of "Civilisation" by Niall Ferguson.

http://amzn.com/0143122061

(Niall Ferguson is pretty outspoken politically too, e.g. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/08/a-full-f...

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100177487/has-n...)

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#50

Post by peeters »

IsaacL wrote: post #16

One of the reasons falls are so fatal for old people is because elderly people in our society rarely stay active. Look at cultures like the Chinese, where you so elderly women up in the morning doing Taichi, or working out on those weird outdoor gym sets in the rest of the day. Maintaining strength and flexibility during old age helps mitigate damage from falls a lot. Physical deterioration is often a self-fulfilling…

The real reason falls are so fatal for the elderly is because the victims become immobalized, causing them to become less active. After a fall, many elderly people are bed-ridden which causes a whole host of greater health problems which are the actual killers.

But then good health and daily activity are the best ways of preventing falls, (along with balance training and physiotherapy, especially after a surgery or stroke) so yes it is a cycle as you say.

I don't agree with it being primarily a cultural thing though. Daily exercise is an individual choice. There's a guy in my new building who I see all the time, he just walks to the end of the hall and back many times each day. Each lap probably takes him 10 minutes. But he chooses to stay active, even in very old age.

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