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If this is true, the hyperscalers are toast

klementoninvesting.substack.com

41–50 of 108 posts

Re: If this is true, the hyperscalers are toast

#42
I don't think they are toast, I mean they will be in some trouble because all of them have fallen victim to fomo and started building out with so much debt for capacity that may or may not be needed nor achieve the returns that they want. I think there's a future where "personal software" meaning highly custom apps generated by an agent is a thing that doesn't mean everything will become that, same for local LLMs but all of this is still too far. The main issue is that hyperscalers or big tech in general have become too powerful they can just buy their way in and out of legislation as they please, sorry I mean lobby ... funny how if you rename something it becomes legal or illegal

Re: If this is true, the hyperscalers are toast

#44

This logic seems mad. If people only need SLMs then hyperscalers can also centrally host higher-efficiency models, and still gain efficiencies of scale and convenience over hosting locally.

The valuations of the hyperscalars won't sustain just being more efficient than something you can run locally. There's a market there, but it's for margin on a commodity. They're priced for oligopoly on unique, premium products.

I very much don’t want to run it locally. I want the same one running somewhere else that I can interact with from all my devices. Look at something like Grok Bot. Nobody is going to run this locally. You can already self host almost anything, yet most people and businesses don’t.

Re: If this is true, the hyperscalers are toast

#47

Given how often the "experts" on CNBC and Bloomberg TV use the term hyperscalers, my approach is to completely disregard anything written or spoken by any person who uses the term.

Two weeks ago, CNBC invited one of their "experts" who focus on SpaceX, and he said they have 10 million satellites in orbit. This is the current level of financial journalism available on "specialized" financial channels...

Re: If this is true, the hyperscalers are toast

#48
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The valuations of the hyperscalars won't sustain just being more efficient than something you can run locally. There's a market there, but it's for margin on a commodity. They're priced for oligopoly on unique, premium products.

I very much don’t want to run it locally. I want the same one running somewhere else that I can interact with from all my devices. Look at something like Grok Bot. Nobody is going to run this locally. You can already self host almost anything, yet most people and businesses don’t.

Yes, but that's not a 10T business.

Re: If this is true, the hyperscalers are toast

#49
post #31
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The logic seems mad to me because SLMs can simply not hold as much information as an LLM. Maybe if you combine an SLM with a database (as a tool) then it could work, but someone should first prove that.

But do you really need a model that has the complete Duran Duran discography memorized and preloaded in RAM at all time?

But what if I _really like_ Duran Duran???

Re: If this is true, the hyperscalers are toast

#50
post #17
post #2

"If", sure. How many developers here don't see a difference between the latest LLMs and SLMs they can run on their own computer? I tried running a smaller model locally, and it's not usable for me. I know people like to "predict" things, so that if they happen they can then say "I am a visionary, I predicted it" and start their blog posts with "as I predicted long ago (because I am a visionary), ...". > The research…

> I tried running a smaller model locally, and it's not usable for me. If you have the hardware, a MacBook Pro for Qwen 3.6 35B A3B and Gemma 4 26B A4B for example, they are absolutely usable, both in terms of speed and quality. Anecdotally, I can use Qwen for day-to-day coding tasks in TS and Go, without hickups.

No, you cant. I challenge anyone who claims this to show me an actual project built only by SLM's and not using opus, sonnet, sol, or terra. Spoiler: you can't.
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