I’ll give him 18 months before his polemics are written with the assistance of AI and he’s holding NVDA and MU.
The AI Demand Bubble
41–50 of 160 posts
Re: The AI Demand Bubble
#42This guy has zero zip nada null AI background. He is a videogame reviewer and PR guy. He is a pure influencer feeding on the AI backlash he helped to create. He has been predicting a crash for how many years now? And while I can totally see Anthropic and OpenAI going through some things on the way to post-IPO FMV, those things do not include AI going away. It truly doesn't matter whether closed source Frontier lab mo…
Yeah, it's not like there are AI-focused hedge funds crashing and burning right now.
If your comment is referring to situational awareness, its due to 4x leverage. leverage is always risky. AI/semis are still doing extremely well (over last 2 years) despite the recent dip
Re: The AI Demand Bubble
#43This guy has zero zip nada null AI background. He is a videogame reviewer and PR guy. He is a pure influencer feeding on the AI backlash he helped to create. He has been predicting a crash for how many years now? And while I can totally see Anthropic and OpenAI going through some things on the way to post-IPO FMV, those things do not include AI going away. It truly doesn't matter whether closed source Frontier lab mo…
Yeah, it's not like there are AI-focused hedge funds crashing and burning right now.
One, very over-leveraged and risk-thirsty speculative vehicle crashed and burned during its first market cycle of bullishness the first time there was a reasonable pullback. Hedge funds in general got a boost from this implosion.
Re: The AI Demand Bubble
#44Has ed zitron ever accounted for the fact that his predictions literally never come true? In most jobs such a poor track record would be disqualifying.
I don’t know. LLMs are plenty often wrong, and some people seem to love them.
Re: The AI Demand Bubble
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t see how “This guy has no experience in the field he is actively commentating on. None of his predictions have come to pass.” is an ad hominem. The critiques are directly relevant to the subject matter.
Would you expect someone in the AI industry to predict the collapse of the AI industry? I'm sure there weren't a ton of bankers predicting the mortgage collapse of 2008 but I, a young programmer of mortgage software could see something was weird (but didn't realize that it wasn't the norm).
So in a couple years now, AI will be as gone as cabbage patch kids and pet rocks?
IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient. And a really bad case of it is labeling anyone who disagrees with you in any way as having AI Psychosis for doing so. And your first line sounds exactly like that to me.
IMO coding agents alone have made AI viable. Healthcare applications have done the same, but coding agents will print money as the cost of tokens drops, and it is dropping. In the meantime, max plans are obviously subsidized, but as long as most of their holders don't token max, they are the netflix of AI until that changes.
https://pricepertoken.com/trends
We needed OpenAI and Anthropic to get us there, but we're there now, and they need to adapt or they will be reduced to glorified neoclouds in the long run. I also predict publicly traded companies that are AI-first with huge PE ratios will go through some things. What I will not do is even try to pin a date on that. The market can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent. But I wouldn't worry so much about companies with high gross margin and PE ratios of 40 or less. Time in the market beats timing the market and all that.
TBF my realtor was telling me about the "Got a pulse? Here's your mortgage!" issue starting in late 2004 after a bizarre conversation with his favorite loan agent after she had done too many tequila shots and started blabbing about basically giving loans to anyone. 100% true story. But again, good luck timing the crash.
Re: The AI Demand Bubble
#46I'm seeing this guy everywhere. He was on Bloomberg a day ago and then on another channel and now here. I'm curious why there are not more people like him voicing their concerns. Makes you wonder if he is completely wrong.
He has been on the topic since a while, and has been recently picking up steam as the discourse on AI sustainability is shifting. But he’s not alone at all, quite a lot of economists have been discussing the exact same points he makes. He’s mostly gathering information and publishing
Re: The AI Demand Bubble
#47This guy has zero zip nada null AI background. He is a videogame reviewer and PR guy. He is a pure influencer feeding on the AI backlash he helped to create. He has been predicting a crash for how many years now? And while I can totally see Anthropic and OpenAI going through some things on the way to post-IPO FMV, those things do not include AI going away. It truly doesn't matter whether closed source Frontier lab mo…
1) Doesn’t make him wrong, and his thesis is looking more and more correct every day
2) The bullish AI side is full of grifters and folks that were block-chain and NFT “experts” before they became AI “experts.” 99% of the folks in AI know almost nothing about AI apart from thinking it’s cool and having played around with it a bit.
The folks that correctly call BS on a thing tend to not be deep in the thing. Thats how they see things that are completely obvious to anyone but those so deep in they can’t see what’s right in front of them. That’s playing out big time right now with AI.
The only folks that don’t see a massive AI bubble ready to burst right now are those that have drunk so much Kool-Aide that they long since stopped having any clarity in judgment.
The implosion of “situational awareness” last week due to a complete lack of situational awareness that most Wall St pros called total amateur hour is a textbook case of this unfolding.
Re: The AI Demand Bubble
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
He said: > I am hypothesizing that for OpenAI to survive for longer than two years, it will have to (in no particular order): And listed various things like a technological breakthrough or more fundraising. I would bet he’s right that they’ll fundraise by the end of the year if they can’t IPO and pass the bag to retail investors. What the AI bulls don’t seem to understand is that AI could be a great technological ach…
For the record, I agree that the generative AI industry might collapse. But I think Ed Zitron is ideologically committed to this belief in a way that is not a reflection of the evidence, and doesn't seem to update this belief based on new evidence. >What the AI bulls don’t seem to understand is that AI could be a great technological achievement AND an impending economic collapse This doesn't seem to be Ed Zitron's po…
The fact there are use cases or not for AI is pretty much irrelevant to his overall points. You can disagree on that specific thing but the thesis regarding what is fueling the bubble is pretty well documented by now
Re: The AI Demand Bubble
#49This guy has zero zip nada null AI background. He is a videogame reviewer and PR guy. He is a pure influencer feeding on the AI backlash he helped to create. He has been predicting a crash for how many years now? And while I can totally see Anthropic and OpenAI going through some things on the way to post-IPO FMV, those things do not include AI going away. It truly doesn't matter whether closed source Frontier lab mo…
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Re: The AI Demand Bubble
#50Has ed zitron ever accounted for the fact that his predictions literally never come true? In most jobs such a poor track record would be disqualifying.
His predictions don’t matter… what matters is the thesis and what it is based upon. Literally nobody can predict to the month or even year when a bubble will pop. But you can identify and document that a bubble exists, and what the actors are doing.
When reading an article you’re supposed to analyze the actual thesis, not just evaluate if the person is an oracle or not