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The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

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Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#41

Post by antonvs »

adastra22 wrote: post #8
ben_w wrote: post #7

My draft blog post about all the things that are up with space data centres keeps getting bigger and bigger. "The other half of the MS model is data centres. “Orbital compute deployments” start in 2028, reach cost parity with their earthbound equivalents by 2031, and put 364GW of rigs in space by 2040." With 25% efficient cells, at 500 km altitude, in a terminator-tracing SSO, this is enough to occupy a *contiguous*…

He3 is needed as a cryogenic for quantum systems, not fusion fuel.

Not a coincidence that both technologies aren’t going to live up to the proponents’ claims, and both want materials we don’t really have.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#43

Post by yborg »

jve wrote: post #26
SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Starship is going to be huge when it's finally operational. Any day now. Yep, real soon, honest!

Don't repeat mistakes of people that were making fun of SpaceX landing rockets before they started to land. Starship has so much innovation in there, the raptors itself etc. It launches, it flies, it re-enters and it lands. The engines work. The heat protection work. Even when they push it to the limits by intentionally experimenting with different heat protection, omitting tiles etc. Even when they are in R&D stage.…

It has to make money. The Space Shuttle was a technical marvel as well and was massively subsidized by the US taxpayer.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#44

Post by trothamel »

piva00 wrote: post #38
ubercore wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just skimmed that linked paper. Only mention I found of cooling is: > Cooling would be achieved through a thermal sys- tem of heat pipes and radiators while operating at nominal temperatures. Isn't that drastically underselling potentially one of the harder parts of this whole endeavor?

Very drastically, the ISS solar panels can generate up to 120kW of power, look at the size of its radiators needed to cool it down. Scaling that to the hundreds of GW range is quite laughable.

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/2064108916611420273?lang=...

While I'd suspect the design is still in flux, the current design is for a 120kw satellite with 110 square meters of radiators. Scaling to hundreds of gigawatts is intended to be by repeatedly launching smaller designs.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#45

Post by antonvs »

zpeti wrote: post #29
XorNot wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There just isn't that much demand for space. Space is cool to nerds like me, but what do I really need from it? I've got all the navigation satellites I could want (which I don't pay for) and the best satellite imagery I use is still hyperspectral airborne imagery. Now, of course that's not the full story but the use cases get rather specific beyond that: the launch market just isn't actually very big (afaik $30 bill…

Without doing a google search - optical fibers factories and pharma factories can deliver higher quality products when built in space. And I bet there are hundreds of other examples. Just because launch costs were high and these weren't viable before, doesn't mean they won't be viable now.

> optical fibers factories and pharma factories can deliver higher quality products when built in space

Those seem like classic examples of what you get when you have a solution in search of problems.

What’s the monetary value of the incremental improvements in those products, and how does it compare to the cost of setting up and operating manufacturing facilities in orbit?

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#46

Post by agentcoops »

Havoc wrote: post #2

That feels…low. They’re the only one with significant proven and operational space lift capacity

In finance and so the world we live in, the value of an equity is less related to the merit of the product than the firm's capacity to generate future free cash flow. Software companies, B2B SaaS in particular, have been basically unbeatable in this regard, hence the state of the market (and our salaries) for the past few decades. Industrial firms have to use metrics like "EBITDA" to show how much cash they'd have to potentially pay to investors if they didn't have to pay so much in interest on their debt, taxes, and fixing up decaying equipment...

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#47

Post by praseodym »

laughing_man wrote: post #11
Havoc wrote: post #2

That feels…low. They’re the only one with significant proven and operational space lift capacity

Starship is going to be huge when it's finally operational. It seems like it should be worth more than $8/shr if the potential is accounted properly.

Don’t forget that SpaceX has 3.884 billion outstanding shares!

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#48

Post by SideQuark »

small_model wrote: post #36
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China and other competitors have other ideas, even if you're not aware of them. When your whole pitch is that you're commoditising a technology, don't be surprised when you get a commoditised market.

Their lead is insurmountable, might bleed 1/2% to china but they own launch market and will do for the next century.

You’re claiming in 10 years they made something others won’t for another century? This has no historical precedent.

China is going to eat them, just like they ate Teslas insurmountable lead in a few short years.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#50

Post by __d »

jve wrote: post #26
SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Starship is going to be huge when it's finally operational. Any day now. Yep, real soon, honest!

Don't repeat mistakes of people that were making fun of SpaceX landing rockets before they started to land. Starship has so much innovation in there, the raptors itself etc. It launches, it flies, it re-enters and it lands. The engines work. The heat protection work. Even when they push it to the limits by intentionally experimenting with different heat protection, omitting tiles etc. Even when they are in R&D stage.…

Falcon9 has basically no market: the only thing that keeps it flying is Starlink.

The whole AI/orbital datacentres/launch thing is a giant grift.

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