Prediction markets are just the new ICO, NFT, SPAC etc scam/gambling(scambling?).
Play if you want, and call yourself a genius if you win, but only with money you can afford to lose.
The AI Superforecasters Are Here
41–50 of 60 posts
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#42If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it. And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?
If you had a tool that would be capable of writing all software better than a human, why would you price it by the word (token)? Why wouldn’t you take a percentage?
(This is one of the more interesting questions that came out of Alex Karp’s televised borderline psychotic break rant the other day and it has stuck in my mind even though he is clearly unstable)
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#43For Pete’s sake lets outlaw prediction markets already instead of hyping them in crappy greed-posts like this one I am embarrassed this “rationalist, I’m so much smarter than you, so I know better” asshole Scott Alexander hasn't been skewered yet for promotion of gambling (prediction markets) that people like Trumps son are making millions of on https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/may/...
What a strange and scoldy thing to say. I find speaking in terms of concretere predictions the best way to discuss things. It bypasses hyper moralists and scoldy type of people (your post reminds me of such) and directly jumps to truth.
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
> And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha? That's precisely why you would want to make a startup to get investment now rather than self-fund and bootstrap. That alpha isn't going to last forever, especially because everyone has access to the frontier LLMs, which keep getting better, and will eventually beat your fanc…
> I met an AI superforecaster startup founder who told me his AI had turned $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months Ok… assuming you can’t use that $2mil for some reason, simply take out a $10k line of credit and you’ll have $571 million in 7 months. If you have the 2mil, congrats you’re 7 months away from $114B - you’re now one of the top 20 richest people in the world. If this was truely the money printing…
Any given trade also has a capacity. A mispricing opportunity can only absorb so much investment before it's no longer mispriced.
A particular trade that can 2x $20k won't be able to do the same for $20 billion.
It's why RenTech capped their Medallion Fund and closed it to outside investment.
If there's only a billion dollars sloshing around on Kalshi, you can't expect to put $1 trillion into bets and take $2 trillion out.
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#45Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I met an AI superforecaster startup founder who told me his AI had turned $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months Ok… assuming you can’t use that $2mil for some reason, simply take out a $10k line of credit and you’ll have $571 million in 7 months. If you have the 2mil, congrats you’re 7 months away from $114B - you’re now one of the top 20 richest people in the world. If this was truely the money printing…
Any given trade also has a capacity. A mispricing opportunity can only absorb so much investment before it's no longer mispriced. A particular trade that can 2x $20k won't be able to do the same for $20 billion. It's why RenTech capped their Medallion Fund and closed it to outside investment. If there's only a billion dollars sloshing around on Kalshi, you can't expect to put $1 trillion into bets and take $2 trillio…
Stock market’s got plenty to spare
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I met an AI superforecaster startup founder who told me his AI had turned $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months Ok… assuming you can’t use that $2mil for some reason, simply take out a $10k line of credit and you’ll have $571 million in 7 months. If you have the 2mil, congrats you’re 7 months away from $114B - you’re now one of the top 20 richest people in the world. If this was truely the money printing…
from the article: I asked the guy who turned $35 into $2 million in seven months on Kalshi whether, in another seven months, he would be able to 100,000x his money a second time to $200 billion. Unsurprisingly, he said no - there’s only so much easy money on Kalshi, and his AI had already taken it all (also, other people with similar AIs are starting to fight him for it!)
So this stuff is only as useful with a steady supply of people making less intelligent bets. You don’t have to sell me on it being bullshit, but you are.
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I met an AI superforecaster startup founder who told me his AI had turned $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months Ok… assuming you can’t use that $2mil for some reason, simply take out a $10k line of credit and you’ll have $571 million in 7 months. If you have the 2mil, congrats you’re 7 months away from $114B - you’re now one of the top 20 richest people in the world. If this was truely the money printing…
You're attacking a strawman. No one is claiming that you can pull off that multiplier at arbitrary amounts arbitrary amounts of times. And 7 months is plenty of calendar time for those arbitrages to disappear, given the attention on the area and the rapid rate of development. (Warren Buffett can't pull off his early trades now either, doesn't mean he was stupid or grifting in taking early investment.)
So you agree this stuff isn’t useful?
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#49For Pete’s sake lets outlaw prediction markets already instead of hyping them in crappy greed-posts like this one I am embarrassed this “rationalist, I’m so much smarter than you, so I know better” asshole Scott Alexander hasn't been skewered yet for promotion of gambling (prediction markets) that people like Trumps son are making millions of on https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/may/...
What a strange and scoldy thing to say. I find speaking in terms of concretere predictions the best way to discuss things. It bypasses hyper moralists and scoldy type of people (your post reminds me of such) and directly jumps to truth.
I don't think there's good evidence that it directly jumps to truth. The aim of betting on a prediction market is to earn money. This incentivizes you to bet on whatever you believe is the most profitable, which is disproportionately going to be whatever you have insider information about, whatever you can influence the outcome of, and whatever you can most effectively fool other people into taking the wrong side of.
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
Any given trade also has a capacity. A mispricing opportunity can only absorb so much investment before it's no longer mispriced. A particular trade that can 2x $20k won't be able to do the same for $20 billion. It's why RenTech capped their Medallion Fund and closed it to outside investment. If there's only a billion dollars sloshing around on Kalshi, you can't expect to put $1 trillion into bets and take $2 trillio…
Stock market’s got plenty to spare
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