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Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

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Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#41

Post by super256 »

ori_b wrote: post #34
super256 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

200 years ago 75% of the population in western Europe were farmers. 100 years ago 41% were farmers. 10 years ago 1-3% were farmers. We are looking forward to bring the same productivity gains to logistics and manufacturing (look at the advancements done in the last few decades!). Why not bring this to white collar work too? I get so much more shit done today than I did a few years ago. It's a great time to be alive!

Has your salary gone up to match your productivity, or are you giving it all away for free? You're not one of the people who gets to benefit from the gains.

I'm bootstrapping my own company, and I live off savings, so the answer is no. I don't have a salary at all.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#43

Post by lillutoo »

bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

Extrapolation leaves you in a world with no agency. Okay, so the models become superintelligent, you're kind of fucked at that point and there's no value you as a human can add so that reality isn't really productive to think about.

The only thing we can do is look at the current state of things, and we still have the same problems we've always had with these models, they need proper direction and input.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#44

Post by bilater »

apsurd wrote: post #37
bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

but you’re just on the other end doing the same thing. one end is luddites nothing to see here, and the other end is omg humanity is cooked because programming is solved! and consciousness is coding so -> gg yes there’s a wide surface of emergent behavior we haven’t fully explored, but why do you get the pass to draw a straight line to a conclusion? the naysayers are doing the same thing.

At least I have trends backing up my claim. What precedent is there for saying, "Yeah, AI has kept getting better, and keeps doing things that we thought it would never be able to do, but now I think it’s going to plateau because I just can’t see the model writing good poetry or being smart enough to make determinsitic tool calls" or whatever?

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#45

Post by ustad »

bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

“ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year.”

You seem to be implying that there was nothing before. Obviously not true.

“AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points.”

What is even IQ? What if it adds 50 now, 25 next month, 12.5 the month after, etc. You should check out Zeno.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#46

Post by bilater »

lillutoo wrote: post #43
bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

Extrapolation leaves you in a world with no agency. Okay, so the models become superintelligent, you're kind of fucked at that point and there's no value you as a human can add so that reality isn't really productive to think about. The only thing we can do is look at the current state of things, and we still have the same problems we've always had with these models, they need proper direction and input.

That is the question, and it does f** with me. But the existential nihilism that comes with it is not an argument against it not happening.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#47

Post by apsurd »

bilater wrote: post #44
apsurd wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but you’re just on the other end doing the same thing. one end is luddites nothing to see here, and the other end is omg humanity is cooked because programming is solved! and consciousness is coding so -> gg yes there’s a wide surface of emergent behavior we haven’t fully explored, but why do you get the pass to draw a straight line to a conclusion? the naysayers are doing the same thing.

At least I have trends backing up my claim. What precedent is there for saying, "Yeah, AI has kept getting better, and keeps doing things that we thought it would never be able to do, but now I think it’s going to plateau because I just can’t see the model writing good poetry or being smart enough to make determinsitic tool calls" or whatever?

it doesn’t have to be that deep or specific.

all things decay on a curve. pretty much all things in life are not modeled by a straight line.

so you’re saying no theres still more UP. sure, but that’s a tale as old as time. when where and how much in how long is the reality piece.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#48

Post by Capricorn2481 »

bilater wrote: post #44
apsurd wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but you’re just on the other end doing the same thing. one end is luddites nothing to see here, and the other end is omg humanity is cooked because programming is solved! and consciousness is coding so -> gg yes there’s a wide surface of emergent behavior we haven’t fully explored, but why do you get the pass to draw a straight line to a conclusion? the naysayers are doing the same thing.

At least I have trends backing up my claim. What precedent is there for saying, "Yeah, AI has kept getting better, and keeps doing things that we thought it would never be able to do, but now I think it’s going to plateau because I just can’t see the model writing good poetry or being smart enough to make determinsitic tool calls" or whatever?

> At least I have trends backing up my claim

No, you don't have trends backing your claims that we are going to add 10,000 IQ points to the average person. Anymore than the S&P 500 is going to 100x in a decade years.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#49

Post by sublinear »

Herring wrote: post #2

The problem is not AI. It's an excellent technology. The problem is there's an underlying power grab (e.g. layoffs). When humans do that to each other they inherently dehumanize/invalidate/insult each other. Implement strong labor protections or basic income and a lot of this dog-eat-dog toxicity goes away.

AI is completely irrelevant to the power that software wields.

Implementing labor protections and basic income is not seeing the forest for the trees. What we need is a more educated public that can contribute their ideas. All AI can do is lower the barrier to entry, but it does not replace the need for education.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#50

Post by brailsafe »

ttoinou wrote: post #35
PedroBatista wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can be. Because most automations never capture the complete scope of the job/task ( not even close ). Just like neurons, if you don't use it you lose it and when the inevitable problems come, nobody knows the why, the how and the what. At that point someone smart would incorporate all those real costs and opportunity loses on the "automating everything" equation. But they usually don't. Of course automating tasks…

I agree with that, and that’s why it’s better to ask an AI and improve your prompt, instead of hiring a human that will disappear and you will loose all institutional knowledge

You only have as much institutional knowledge as you're willing to cultivate and be liable for. Many companies already don't give a shit about institutional knowledge, indicated by how little they're willing to invest in keeping a strong team together, caused in-part by long-standing toxic incentive structures.

Ask an AI to solve a problem and it may do that, but if you don't understand why or how it works, or what to do with the information in order to keep it useful for even the medium term, then all you've done is taken away the opportunity for someone else to be responsible for something you shouldn't be.

It's not necessarily a mystery how to make good food. You can ask an AI how to make good food, follow the instructions, and you're off to the races. The question then is whether you want to be in that race.

Would you have gone to chef school? Would you work in a kitchen? Are you willing to deal with customers, or risk RSI from so many repeated kitchen movements? Are you willing to practice and be tested?

If the answer to any of those is no, then get the hell out of that kitchen and let the people who have more grit than you do their job. Do what you can to make it easier for you to pay them consistently and well on the back-end.

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